GoldMinerPulse: TSX/TSXv Gold Mining and Silver Mining Companies

Last Updated With Closing Market Prices and Document Filings from: 27 March 2015 (as available at TSX closing time).


Seabridge Gold    

High Value Tips

Any investor in the resource companies in general and TSXV miners in particular should review the excellent material provided by US Global Investors in a recent report titled: MANAGING EXPECTATIONS: Anticipate Before You Participate in the Market. Highlights include:

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The 2014 update to the Periodic Table of Commodity Returns (Pd was #1 while Au was #5) is available here.

Visual Correlations

Use the form below to visually inspect the correlation between the closing market prices of TSX/TSXv gold/silver equities and spot market prices for gold and/or silver and/or copper.

TSX/TSXv Gold/Silver Stocks Correlation With Spot Market Metal Prices
Select TSX/TSXv Gold/Silver Stock Groupings For Review

Index: NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index (HUI)

Producers in ETFs:  GDX   GDXJ   SGDM   SILJ   ZJG  

Developers/Explorers in ETFs:  GDXJ   SGDM   SILJ   ZJG  

Show Group Average

Add Spot Market Close Time Series

   Visual Correlation Chart Setup

Feedback from one of the 1st users (beta 001):

To quote the cop in Superbad, that metric is ''superbadass!''. And fun.

Since we come to the junior producer field looking for correlation, this is definately right up a stock pickers alley. Definately a home run. ...

Very nice.

   

Gold and Silver Production Statistics

NOTE: Newmont Gold (NEM on the NYSE), which did at one time trade on the TSX and which still files reports via Sedar.com, is not technically a TSX/TSXv gold producer and was therefore removed from GoldMinerPulse statistics effective 6 March 2015. Previously the NEM statistics were incorrectly counted as part of the TSX/TSXv totals.

Production Based on Last/Latest Four Quarters

Using the most recently available quarterly production reports, the gold and silver stocks listed on the TSX/TSXv are reporting production totals on a rolling 4 quarters of:

  • Gold: 25.19M ounces (863.66 tons or 783.50 tonnes), a 2.5% change over the 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.

  • Silver: 179.66M ounces (6,159.77 tons or 5,588.05 tonnes), a 5.2% change over the previous 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.

The running totals for quarterly production numbers for companies with a quarter ending in the months of October, November and December 2014, along with the changes on a Quarter on Quarter (QoQ) basis, for TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver producers are:

# Producers
Reporting
Gold Produced
Latest Q Report
QoQ
Gold Δ
Silver Produced
Latest Q Report
QoQ
Silver Δ
76 of 88 8,312,312 oz
 
285.0 tons
 
258.5 tonne
12% 49,443,220 oz
 
1,695 tons
 
1,538 tonne
12%

TSX/TSXv Gold Reserves and Resources

Gold reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from gold:

Metric

 
Type of Equity

Gold Reserves
(tons)

 

Gold Resources
(tons, inclusive of reserves)

 

Gold Producers

14686 37386

Gold Developers

3992 16330

Gold Explorers
>5M Oz AuEq

2004 7741

Gold Explorers
<5M Oz AuEq

107 5804

All Gold Equities

20789 67261

Based on gold production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv gold producers have 21.5 years of gold reserves.

TSX/TSXv Silver Reserves and Resources

Silver reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from silver:

Metric

 
Type of Equity

Silver Reserves
(tons)

 

Silver Resources
(tons, inclusive of reserves)

 

Silver Producers

155256 363809

Silver Developers

48843 152098

Silver Explorers
>5M Oz AuEq

6562 48924

Silver Explorers
<5M Oz AuEq

368 45098

All Silver Equities

211029 609929

Based on silver production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv silver producers have 33.6 years of reserves.

 

TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver Equities Statistics

The following table includes TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5 of their in situ metal values from gold or silver (in US$).

Type of Equity

 
Metric

Producers
 

 

Developers
 

 

Explorers
>5M Oz AuEq

 

Explorers
<5M Oz AuEq

 

Enterprise Value
Per Oz AuEq

$64 $7 $2 $8

Estimated Discovery Cost
Per Oz AuEq

  $11 $3 $21

Net Working Capital
(US$)

$18,618M $1,415M $297M $575M

TSX/TSXv Company Counts by Category

TSX/TSXv company may appear at most one time in the following table. Companies without a gold/silver resource (generators, historic and grass roots) are included on the basis of qualitative assessment of descriptions published in quarterly financial statements.

Category # of Companies in Category

Gold/Silver Streaming and Royalty Companies

7

Gold/Silver Producers

88

Gold/Silver Developers

150

Gold/Silver Explorers

226

Gold/Silver Generator Model Companies
(No Gold or Silver Resource)

29

Gold/Silver Explorers with Historic Resource
(No Gold or Silver Resource)

27

Gold/Silver Grass Roots Explorers
(No Gold or Silver Resource)

716

Total Companies Listed in Sedar.com
(Current, historic, TSX/TSXv, CNDX, and others. See Note 1)

~30,000

Note 1: All TSX/TSXv listed companies are required to file in Sedar.com. However, Sedar.com companies include current companies, companies that no longer file (i.e. as a result of take over, merger, re-organization, bankruptcy, etc.), CNDX companies (Canadian over the counter market listings), and companies listed on foreign exchanges (e.g. US OTC, London, etc.) that have some connection with Canadian investors.

ETF, Group Average Returns and Profiles

ETF and stock picking group returns and profiles are unavailable while we do some site upgrades. Expected return t.b.d. base on visitor feedback.

 

Contact Information

Friday Outlook for Gold Next Week - March 28 view for 3 April Close

The multi week down trend in gold remains in place, although seriously stressed with the unexpected news of Saudi Arabia attacks on Yemen last week which caused gold and oil to spike.

Observations on the Week Ending 27 March

  • The GDX Visual Correlation chart shows that market cap weighted average of the GDX Producers on the TSX (dashed black line) tracking of gold moving nicely in synch with little difference in normalized relative price changes (market expectations for gold and GDX equities are in balanced).

  • The U.S.D. index is off recent highs but still remains well above its 50 day moving average. The GDX, GDXJ and SGDM ETFs are back at their 50 day moving averages, trending for a break below.

    GDX, the largest gold equity ETF, showed an outflow of approximately US$144M for the week, an outflow on par with those in early December 2014.

  • The Shanghai physical delivery from vault for the week ending 20 March (reporting is always on a one week delay basis) was 561.2 tonnes YTD, a 7.2% increase over the comparable 2014 YTD figures.

  • Shanghai Daily settlement volume in March 2015 is expected to better the previous monthly record, set in February 2015, by at least 30%. Since settlement leads physical delivery (but not all settlements result in physical delivery), the outlook for 2015 physical demand from China is extremely strong.

    The magnitude of change between March 2015 and February 2015 is unprecedented and suggests there has been a fundamental change in SGE trading. My wild speculation is that this is a case of a shift in futures trading activities from London to Shanghai and/or perhaps gold for Apple gold products is being sourced via Shanghai. It will be interesting to see if the trend continues into April 2015.

    January 2015 set a record monthly settlement volume. February 2015 exceed January 2015 and March 2015 has already better the February record.

    This is the first time there have been 3 record settlement months in a row (looking at data back to 2010). The closest similar period occurred in October 2011 (196 t), November 2011 (200 t) and December 2011 (199 t) when the previous record settlement volume was 200 t (August 2011). It should be noted that the LBMA gold hit $1896 in September 2011.

  • Gold Priced in renminbi is in a down trend relative to prices 6 months and 1 year earlier. It has been suggested that Chinese demand is strongest when the price of gold in renminbi is rising and not when it is falling. However the strong physical gold delivery from vault and record monthly settlement volumes suggest otherwise - that is the Chinese are happy to buy gold at current prices even though gold in renminbi is clearly trending downwards.

  • I still believe the Long/Short Trade with Agnico Eagle (AEM, AEM CN) and Rubicon (RBY, RMX CN) posted on 12 March 2015 or an out and out short on AEM is a good probability play -- the news of the over statement of LaRonde base metal reserves has yet to be acknowledged via a press release by the company, which in turns causes an information asymmetry which could result in a AEM price drop once information is uniformly disclosed (as required by Canadian NI43-101 disclosure standards). However, given the amount of time that has passed there is a very real possibility that magnitude of the error in LaRonde base metal reserves will not visible until the next annual reserve update (February 2016).

    Regarding Rubicon and its potential, the upside from its transition from a developer to Canadian gold producer producing from a newly constructed high grade mine remains strong. The first step in the transition will be a declaration of the start of commerical production.

Outlook

On balance, the break out from the recent gold down trend has yet to be confirmed, although the black swan like news regarding Yemen did provide a serious test. The potential for more black swans abound so upside test is definitely not finished.

Based on available evidence discussed above and summarized below I expect the down trend to remain in place through next week.

  • Gold in Yuan Renminbi is firmly in a down trend.

  • Shanghai gold settlement volumes have hit 3 consecutive monthly highs. In 2011, a similar settlement volume pattern matched a peak in price of gold with a subsequent price decline.

  • Falling oil prices and platinum trading below gold also favor the gold trend remaining in place. The US$ while off recent highs could easily bounce in the coming weeks or more likely move sideways. Last week's bounce in gold priced in US$ was most like a function of the Yemen situation.

View Friday Outlook for Gold Next Week for past Friday outlooks.

 

Trade Ideas

  • 12 March - go long Rubicon (RBY, RMX CN) and buy Agnico Eagle (AEM, AEM CN) near term PUTS to capitalize on an excessive premium in AEM for its Canadian dollar production and the missing production bonus in RBY.

    Any one relying on the Agnico Eagle reserve numbers, as available in Sedar.com (as of 16 March 2015) would compute an 18% error in the company's gold equivalent reserves -- there is a factor of 10 error in the base metal percentages in an 11 February 2015 news release which has never been corrected in Sedar -- more details here.

 

Gold ETF News

Fund flows into and out the gold equity ETFs are worth monitoring to gain a sense of market bias.

  • 27 March - outflow from GDX was -$51.7M. GDXJ and SGDM were unchanged.

  • 26 March - outflow from GDX was -$14.1M. GDXJ and SGDM were unchanged.

  • 25 March - inflow into GDX was $7.8M, SGDM outflow was -$3.6M and GDXJ was unchanged.

  • 23 March - outflow from GDX was -$79.2M while the outflow from GDXJ was -$83.9M. The SGDM was unchanged.

  • Seabridge Gold (SEA CN, SA), a dynamic, well-funded company active in Northern British Columbia, is the only gold explorer/developer included in both the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) and the newly-launched Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM). The Seabridge KSM project has received final approval of its Environmental Assessment Application and is only the second large-scale mining project in Canada to receive federal approval in the past five years - see Why KSM Makes Sense. Also see Seabridge Gold Inc. Project Summary and Seabridge Gold home page for more.

Gold and Silver Miner Market Capitalization Estimates

TSX/TSXv Grouping TSX/TSXv Total Market Capitalization
(Millions of US$)
Gold & Silver Producers $77,215
Gold & Silver Streamers $19,278
Gold & Silver Developers $7,292
Gold & Silver Explorers $3,441
Total TSX/TSXv Gold & Silver Miners $107,226
 
Market Cap Estimate For the World's
Gold & Silver miners (Millions of US$)
$295,108

Note: All TSX/TSXv companies with at least 12.5% of their total in situ metal value coming from either gold or silver and which match the category definitions, are included in the above table.

Gold & Silver Producers category includes those companies that report quarterly production counts and revenues for gold and/or silver production.

Gold & Silver Streamers category includes companies focused on creating gold/silver streams or royalty income flows.

Gold & Silver Developers category includes companies with an explicit plan to start production in the near term or which have a spending profile and work plans to imply potential future production.

Gold & Silver Explorers category includes companies that are primarily focused on expanding resource counts at one or more existing gold and silver projects without indicating plans for future production.

Generator and grass roots companies are not covered.

Market capitalization is always computed using closing market price (expressed in US$ using exchange rates in effact at market closing time) and the issued share of each company. Updates are made daily after the TSX market close.

TSX/TSXv Market Share Assumptions: the TSX/TSXv gold producers are estimated to represent approximately 33% of the world's gold producers since the TSX/TSXv gold producers report approximately 1/3 of the world's yearly gold production. The streamers, explorers and developers are estimated to represent very roughly 50% of the world total for companies in those groupings.

The Market Cap Estimate For the World's Gold & Silver miners is computed based on the actual TSX/TSXv market capitalizations, computed on a daily basis here using closing market prices and Sedar.com material filings as available at the TSX market closing time, and applying the market share assumptions detailed above.

Detailed fundamental metrics on the TSX/TSXv gold and silver miners, including per company details such as:

  • gold and silver reserves / resources breakdowns

  • enterprise value per ounce of gold reserve (or resource)

  • average ore value per tonne

  • breakdown of percentage of gold equivalent ounces by country (2 letter ISO codes)

  • options to fully customize report to your specific needs

are available on a subscription basis. Contact dennis@goldminerpulse.com to request a free no obligation evaluation copy of a TSX/TSXv gold/silver miner monthly report.

If you are using in house staff to maintain such metrics then you should consider the advantages of outsourcing this task to the GoldMinerPulse team which can prepare custom reports using XML, Excel spreadsheets and/or private access PHP pages.

 

LBMA GOFO Rates

Per the LBMA website, all GOFO data was discontinued as of 30 January 2015. The LBMA website references www.trioptima.com and provides contacts into this organization on the Discontinuation of GOFO transition information page. Thanks in advance to anyone who can provide a good overview blog on the LBMA to trioptima transition.

 

Shanghai Gold Exchange Gold Closing Price Versus Kitco Closing Price

The Shanghai Gold Exchange Yuan Renminbi price of gold and premium/discount in US dollars relative to the Kitco spot price at TSX close follows (yearly average and 1 year rolling time period comparisons):

Note: See China Public Holiday Calendar for the dates of up coming Chinese holidays.

Yearly Average Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium:
  • 2015 (YTD average): $4.97

  • 2014 (Full year average): $2.02

  • 2013 (Full year average): $14.94

Rolling Week on Week Comparisons of Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) Premiums (Δ) vs Kitco Spot Gold Price:

Date Shanghai Gold Exchange Close - Au(T+D) Kitco Spot Price at TSX Close SGE Δ
Yuan Renminbi/gram US$/oz
27 March 2015 240.45 $1204 $1197 $6
26 March 2015 240.78 $1206 $1203 $3
25 March 2015 238.01 $1192 $1196 -$4
24 March 2015 237.70 $1191 $1194 -$2
23 March 2015 236.74 $1185 $1191 -$6
20 March 2015 234.39 $1175 $1183 -$8
...
26 September 2014 242.61 $1242 $1217 $14
25 September 2014 239.26 $1232 $1217 $14
24 September 2014 242.34 $1228 $1217 $11
23 September 2014 240.80 $1220 $1223 -$3
22 September 2014 240.18 $1217 $1216 $1
19 September 2014 242.07 $1226 $1217 $9
...
28 March 2014 258.20 $1293 $1294 -$1
27 March 2014 258.86 $1296 $1294 $2
26 March 2014 261.70 $1309 $1312 -$4
25 March 2014 261.00 $1309 $1312 -$4
24 March 2014 263.60 $1309 $1311 $13
21 March 2014 265.46 $1326 $1335 -$8

Currency conversions made using spot rates available on the date. The SGE Δ is computed as the SGE closing price in US$ minus Kitco Spot Price (bid) at TSX Close.

See the SGE page for daily updates on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, including a comparison of SGE gold delivery from vault in 2014 versus 2013.

See schedule of holidays in China in 2015 for dates the SGE will be closed. 2 January was the New Year's weekend holiday. The next holiday will be Spring Festival Eve and Chinese New Year holidays started 18 February and ending 24 February.

 

Friday's News Highlights

Select Friday's news headlines from the 1,909 mining stocks (producers, developers, explorers, base metal producers plus a few of the capital pool companies) GoldMinerPulse tracks:

  • Cornerstone Capital Resources Inc. (CTNXF, CGP CV) Visit
    • 08:00am EDT Cornerstone Capital Resources Inc.: Assay Results from Upper Zone in Hole 10 Confirm Strike Extension of High Grade Copper and Gold [Marketwired more]
  • Midway Gold Corp. (MDW, MDW CN) Visit
    • 08:30am EDT Midway Pours First Gold at Pan Mine [Business Wire more]
  • Pretium Resources Inc. (PVG, PVG CN) Visit
    • 05:00am EDT Pretium Resources Inc.: Brucejack Project Receives British Columbia Environmental Assessment Approval [Marketwired more]
  • Revett Mining Company, Inc. (RVM, RVM CN) Visit
    • 08:24am EDT Revett Minerals Inc.: HECLA TO ACQUIRE REVETT IN $20 MILLION STOCK DEAL [GlobeNewswire more]
    • 08:00am EDT Hecla to Acquire Revett in $20 Million Stock Deal [Marketwired more]
  • Tinka Resources Limited (TKRFF, TK CV) Visit
    • 08:45am EDT Tinka Announces Filing of NI 43-101 Technical Report on the Ayawilca-Colquipucro Project, Peru [CNW Group more]

View more of Friday's news headlines here. Our news headlines update each TSX/TSXv trading day, typically mid morning and then several times during the trading day.

 

Previous Friday Outlook for Gold Next Week

See Friday Outlook for Gold Next Week - Call History

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