GoldMinerPulse: TSX/TSXv Gold Mining and Silver Mining Companies

Last Updated With Closing Market Prices and Document Filings from: 27 April 2015 (as available at TSX closing time).


Seabridge Gold    

High Value Tips

Any investor in the resource companies in general and TSXV miners in particular should review the excellent material provided by US Global Investors in a recent report titled: MANAGING EXPECTATIONS: Anticipate Before You Participate in the Market. Highlights include:

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The 2014 update to the Periodic Table of Commodity Returns (Pd was #1 while Au was #5) is available here.

Visual Correlations

Use the form below to visually inspect the correlation between the closing market prices of TSX/TSXv gold/silver equities and spot market prices for gold and/or silver and/or copper.

TSX/TSXv Gold/Silver Stocks Correlation With Spot Market Metal Prices
Select TSX/TSXv Gold/Silver Stock Groupings For Review

Index: NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index (HUI)

Producers in ETFs:  GDX   GDXJ   SGDM   SILJ   ZJG  

Developers/Explorers in ETFs:  GDXJ   SGDM   SILJ   ZJG  

Show Group Average

Add Spot Market Close Time Series

   Visual Correlation Chart Setup

Feedback from one of the 1st users (beta 001):

To quote the cop in Superbad, that metric is ''superbadass!''. And fun.

Since we come to the junior producer field looking for correlation, this is definately right up a stock pickers alley. Definately a home run. ...

Very nice.

   

Gold and Silver Production Statistics

NOTE: Newmont Gold (NEM on the NYSE), which did at one time trade on the TSX and which still files reports via Sedar.com, is not technically a TSX/TSXv gold producer and was therefore removed from GoldMinerPulse statistics effective 6 March 2015. Previously the NEM statistics were incorrectly counted as part of the TSX/TSXv totals.

Production Based on Last/Latest Four Quarters

Using the most recently available quarterly production reports, the gold and silver stocks listed on the TSX/TSXv are reporting production totals on a rolling 4 quarters of:

  • Gold: 25.3M ounces (867.43 tons or 786.92 tonnes), a 1.9% change over the 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.

  • Silver: 181.21M ounces (6,212.91 tons or 5,636.26 tonnes), a 4.4% change over the previous 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.

The running totals for quarterly production numbers for companies with a quarter ending in the months of January, February and March 2015, along with the changes on a Quarter on Quarter (QoQ) basis, for TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver producers are:

# Producers
Reporting
Gold Produced
Latest Q Report
QoQ
Gold Δ
Silver Produced
Latest Q Report
QoQ
Silver Δ
40 of 87 1,820,364 oz
 
62.4 tons
 
56.6 tonne
-14% 12,482,835 oz
 
428 tons
 
388 tonne
-3%

TSX/TSXv Gold Reserves and Resources

Gold reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from gold:

Metric

 
Type of Equity

Gold Reserves
(tons)

 

Gold Resources
(tons, inclusive of reserves)

 

Gold Producers

14091 36714

Gold Developers

4263 16397

Gold Explorers
>5M Oz AuEq

2006 7541

Gold Explorers
<5M Oz AuEq

107 5708

All Gold Equities

20468 66360

Based on gold production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv gold producers have 21.5 years of gold reserves.

TSX/TSXv Silver Reserves and Resources

Silver reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from silver:

Metric

 
Type of Equity

Silver Reserves
(tons)

 

Silver Resources
(tons, inclusive of reserves)

 

Silver Producers

154235 372743

Silver Developers

49077 143670

Silver Explorers
>5M Oz AuEq

6562 56200

Silver Explorers
<5M Oz AuEq

368 44415

All Silver Equities

210241 617028

Based on silver production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv silver producers have 33.6 years of reserves.

 

TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver Equities Statistics

The following table includes TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5 of their in situ metal values from gold or silver (in US$).

Type of Equity

 
Metric

Producers
 

 

Developers
 

 

Explorers
>5M Oz AuEq

 

Explorers
<5M Oz AuEq

 

Enterprise Value
Per Oz AuEq

$70 $8 $2 $8

Estimated Discovery Cost
Per Oz AuEq

  $11 $3 $21

Net Working Capital
(US$)

$17,756M $1,267M $277M $566M

TSX/TSXv Company Counts by Category

TSX/TSXv company may appear at most one time in the following table. Companies without a gold/silver resource (generators, historic and grass roots) are included on the basis of qualitative assessment of descriptions published in quarterly financial statements.

Category # of Companies in Category

Gold/Silver Streaming and Royalty Companies

7

Gold/Silver Producers

87

Gold/Silver Developers

144

Gold/Silver Explorers

233

Gold/Silver Generator Model Companies
(No Gold or Silver Resource)

28

Gold/Silver Explorers with Historic Resource
(No Gold or Silver Resource)

Gold/Silver Grass Roots Explorers
(No Gold or Silver Resource)

801

Total Companies Listed in Sedar.com
(Current, historic, TSX/TSXv, CNDX, and others. See Note 1)

~30,000

Note 1: All TSX/TSXv listed companies are required to file in Sedar.com. However, Sedar.com companies include current companies, companies that no longer file (i.e. as a result of take over, merger, re-organization, bankruptcy, etc.), CNDX companies (Canadian over the counter market listings), and companies listed on foreign exchanges (e.g. US OTC, London, etc.) that have some connection with Canadian investors.

ETF, Group Average Returns and Profiles

ETF and stock picking group returns and profiles are unavailable while we do some site upgrades. Expected return t.b.d. base on visitor feedback.

 

Contact Information

Outlook For Gold and Gold Equities - April 25 view for 1 May Close

The multi week down trend in gold remains in place. The odds for an upside break out have diminished with the end of week sell-off in gold but the holders of gold equities remain decidely bullish. The potential for a further drop in gold price is not supported by the Shanghai Gold Exchange daily settlement volume on futures contracts - in the past times of negative LBMA GOFO rates were matched by reduced SGE daily settlement volumes. I strongly suspect that current GOFO rates are or recently were negative thus limiting the odds of a significant move lower in price of gold in the coming week.

Observations on the Week Ending 24 April

  • The GDX Visual Correlation chart shows that market cap weighted average of the GDX Producers on the TSX (dashed black line) moving sharply ahead of gold suggesting a positive expectation maybe be over anticipated in the week end equity prices. In other words, it would appear that the buyers/sellers of gold equities and gold equity ETFs are expecting a sharp recovery in the price of gold in the week ending 1 May.

  • The U.S.D. index has broken below its 50 day moving average. The GDX, GDXJ and SGDM ETFs have also broken through their 50 day averages.

    GDX, the largest gold equity ETF, showed an outflow of more than US$95M for the week, down from the prior week.

  • The Shanghai physical delivery from vault for the week ending 17 April (reporting is always on a one week delay basis) was 731 tonnes YTD, a 15.1% increase over the comparable 2014 YTD figures.

    Daily settlement volumes are off sharply from the Q1 pace which suggest that physical gold may an issue -- in prior years, times of negative GOFO rates (short supply of physical gold for near term delivery) often led to a drop off in SGE daily settlement volumes. That appears to be happening now but this is just an estimate given that GOFO rates apparently are no longer published on the web.

    Gold priced in Yuan Renminbi remains in a down trend based on current week, 6 month and 1 year view.

  • Conditions continue to favor a short trade on AEM with no change from last week's assessment.

Outlook

On balance, the gold down trend remains in place, after upside break out tests in prior weeks failed. However further upside break tests can be expected as there is limited downside pressure on gold due to what I believe are tight supply conditions for physical gold for delivery into the Asian market.

Based on available evidence discussed above I expect the down trend to remain in place through next week with prices movements to trend sideways while awaiting unexpected news events that will finally defined the next major trend move.

View Friday Outlook for Gold Next Week for past Friday outlooks.

 

Trade Ideas

  • 12 March - go long Rubicon (RBY, RMX CN) and buy Agnico Eagle (AEM, AEM CN) near term PUTS to capitalize on an excessive premium in AEM for its Canadian dollar production and the missing production bonus in RBY.

    Any one relying on the Agnico Eagle reserve numbers, as available in Sedar.com (as of 16 March 2015) would compute an 18% error in the company's gold equivalent reserves -- there is a factor of 10 error in the base metal percentages in an 11 February 2015 news release which has never been corrected in Sedar -- more details here.

 

Gold Equity ETF Money Flows

Dollars flowing into or inflow to an ETF means the ETF is increasing its holdings of shares. Likewise an outflow denotes when the ETF is reducing its holdings of shares. Inflow and outflow is computed using the share counts (or total ETF unit counts) from current day, closing share price on current day and share count (or total ETF unit counts) from prior day.

Updates are applied at the end of each trading day if the GDX or GDXJ had an inflow or outflow - no update means no change in share holdings occurred for either GDX or GDXJ. The BMO ZJG.TO ETF and the Sprott SGDM / SGDJ ETFs are made later in the day as data becomes available.

  • 27 April - Outflow from GDX was -$41.6M. Outflow from GDXJ was -$28.7M. Outflow from SGDM was -$0.9M. ZJG.TO was unchanged.

  • 24 April - Outflow from GDX was -$11.7M. GDXJ was unchanged.

  • 23 April - GDX was unchanged. Outflow from GDXJ was -$1.2M. ZJG.TO, SGDM and SGDJ were unchanged.

  • 22 April - outflow from GDX was -$11.6M. ZJG.TO, SGDM and GDXJ were unchanged. SGDJ had an inflow of $3.8M.

  • 21 April - GDX was unchanged. GDXJ outflow was -$26.3M. ZGJ.TO outflow was -$0.6M.

  • 20 April - outflow from GDX was -$44.6M. GDXJ inflow as $7.5M.

  • 17 April - outflow from GDX was -$43.5M. GDXJ and SGDM were unchanged.

  • 15 April - outflow from GDX was -$99.8M. GDXJ and SGDM were unchanged.

  • 14 April - outflow from GDX was -$19.4M. GDXJ was unchanged. Outflow from SGDM was -$2.6M.

  • 13 April - outflow from GDX was -$27.9M. GDXJ was unchanged. Outflow from SGDM was -$3.5M.

  • 10 April - outflow from GDX was -$4.9M. GDXJ and SGDM were unchanged.

  • 9 April - outflow from GDX was -$88.1M, relative to 7 April 2015 ( 8 April GDX snapshot was incompleted). GDXJ and SGDM were unchanged.

  • 6 April - outflow from GDX was -$29.5M. GDXJ and SGDM were unchanged.

  • 2 April - inflow to the GDX was $2.8M while outflow from the GDXJ was -$27.8M. SGDM and the newly launched SGDJ were unchanged.

  • 31 March - outflow from GDX was -$67.7M. GDXJ gained $11.4M. SGDM lost -$0.8M since March 27.

  • 30 March - outflow from GDX was -$14.9M. GDXJ was unchanged.

  • 27 March - outflow from GDX was -$51.7M. GDXJ and SGDM were unchanged.

  • 26 March - outflow from GDX was -$14.1M. GDXJ and SGDM were unchanged.

  • 25 March - inflow into GDX was $7.8M, SGDM outflow was -$3.6M and GDXJ was unchanged.

  • Seabridge Gold (SEA CN, SA), a dynamic, well-funded company active in Northern British Columbia, is the only gold explorer/developer included in both the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) and the newly-launched Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM). The Seabridge KSM project has received final approval of its Environmental Assessment Application and is only the second large-scale mining project in Canada to receive federal approval in the past five years - see Why KSM Makes Sense. Also see Seabridge Gold Inc. Project Summary and Seabridge Gold home page for more.

Gold and Silver Miner Market Capitalization Estimates

TSX/TSXv Grouping TSX/TSXv Total Market Capitalization
(Millions of US$)
Gold & Silver Producers $83,976
Gold & Silver Streamers $19,523
Gold & Silver Developers $7,864
Gold & Silver Explorers $3,400
Total TSX/TSXv Gold & Silver Miners $114,763
 
Market Cap Estimate For the World's
Gold & Silver miners (Millions of US$)
$316,902

Note: All TSX/TSXv companies with at least 12.5% of their total in situ metal value coming from either gold or silver and which match the category definitions, are included in the above table.

Gold & Silver Producers category includes those companies that report quarterly production counts and revenues for gold and/or silver production.

Gold & Silver Streamers category includes companies focused on creating gold/silver streams or royalty income flows.

Gold & Silver Developers category includes companies with an explicit plan to start production in the near term or which have a spending profile and work plans to imply potential future production.

Gold & Silver Explorers category includes companies that are primarily focused on expanding resource counts at one or more existing gold and silver projects without indicating plans for future production.

Generator and grass roots companies are not covered.

Market capitalization is always computed using closing market price (expressed in US$ using exchange rates in effact at market closing time) and the issued share of each company. Updates are made daily after the TSX market close.

TSX/TSXv Market Share Assumptions: the TSX/TSXv gold producers are estimated to represent approximately 33% of the world's gold producers since the TSX/TSXv gold producers report approximately 1/3 of the world's yearly gold production. The streamers, explorers and developers are estimated to represent very roughly 50% of the world total for companies in those groupings.

The Market Cap Estimate For the World's Gold & Silver miners is computed based on the actual TSX/TSXv market capitalizations, computed on a daily basis here using closing market prices and Sedar.com material filings as available at the TSX market closing time, and applying the market share assumptions detailed above.

Detailed fundamental metrics on the TSX/TSXv gold and silver miners, including per company details such as:

  • gold and silver reserves / resources breakdowns

  • enterprise value per ounce of gold reserve (or resource)

  • average ore value per tonne

  • breakdown of percentage of gold equivalent ounces by country (2 letter ISO codes)

  • options to fully customize report to your specific needs

are available on a subscription basis. Contact dennis@goldminerpulse.com to request a free no obligation evaluation copy of a TSX/TSXv gold/silver miner monthly report.

If you are using in house staff to maintain such metrics then you should consider the advantages of outsourcing this task to the GoldMinerPulse team which can prepare custom reports using XML, Excel spreadsheets and/or private access PHP pages.

 

LBMA GOFO Rates

Per the LBMA website, all GOFO data was discontinued as of 30 January 2015. The LBMA website references www.trioptima.com and provides contacts into this organization on the Discontinuation of GOFO transition information page. Thanks in advance to anyone who can provide a good overview blog on the LBMA to trioptima transition.

 

Shanghai Gold Exchange Gold Closing Price Versus Kitco Closing Price

The Shanghai Gold Exchange Yuan Renminbi price of gold and premium/discount in US dollars relative to the Kitco spot price at TSX close follows (yearly average and 1 year rolling time period comparisons):

Note: See China Public Holiday Calendar for the dates of up coming Chinese holidays.

Yearly Average Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium:
  • 2015 (YTD average): $4.24

  • 2014 (Full year average): $2.02

  • 2013 (Full year average): $14.94

Rolling Week on Week Comparisons of Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) Premiums (Δ) vs Kitco Spot Gold Price:

Date Shanghai Gold Exchange Close - Au(T+D) Kitco Spot Price at TSX Close SGE Δ
Yuan Renminbi/gram US$/oz
28 April 2015 240.04 $1203
27 April 2015 236.37 $1183 $1202 -$20
24 April 2015 238.70 $1199 $1178 $20
23 April 2015 238.94 $1199 $1194 $5
22 April 2015 239.67 $1204 $1186 $18
21 April 2015 238.40 $1196 $1202 -$5
...
28 October 2014 241.70 $1230 $1228 $2
27 October 2014 242.10 $1231 $1228 $3
24 October 2014 242.55 $1234 $1231 $3
23 October 2014 244.62 $1243 $1233 $11
22 October 2014 245.62 $1249 $1242 $7
21 October 2014 248.50 $1249 $1242 $7
...
29 April 2014 260.00 $1292 $1297 -$4
28 April 2014 251.95 $1303 $1297 $6
25 April 2014 259.63 $1291 $1303 -$11
24 April 2014 257.77 $1283 $1293 -$10
23 April 2014 257.85 $1286 $1285 $1
22 April 2014 258.46 $1289 $1285 $4

Currency conversions made using spot rates available on the date. The SGE Δ is computed as the SGE closing price in US$ minus Kitco Spot Price (bid) at TSX Close.

See the SGE page for daily updates on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, including a comparison of SGE gold delivery from vault in 2014 versus 2013.

See schedule of holidays in China in 2015 for dates the SGE will be closed. 2 January was the New Year's weekend holiday. The next holiday will be Spring Festival Eve and Chinese New Year holidays started 18 February and ending 24 February.

 

Tuesday's News Highlights

Select Tuesday's news headlines from the 1,903 mining stocks (producers, developers, explorers, base metal producers plus a few of the capital pool companies) GoldMinerPulse tracks:

  • Eagle Hill Exploration Corporation (EAG CV) Visit
    • 09:12am EDT Eagle Hill Exploration Announces Positive Preliminary Economic Assessment with 23.6% Pre-tax IRR for the Windfall Lake Gold Project in Quebec, Canada [Accesswire more]
  • Gold Standard Ventures Corp. (GSV CV) Visit
    • 03:05am EDT Gold Standard to Begin Drilling Next Month on the Pinion and Dark Star Oxide Gold Deposits, Railroad-Pinion Project, Carlin Trend Nevada [Marketwired more]
  • Kiska Metals Corporation (KSK CV) Visit
    • 09:00am EDT Kiska Announces Termination of Letter of Intent Regarding Sale of the Whistler Project [Marketwired more]
  • Nevsun Resources Ltd. (NSU, NSU CN) Visit
    • 07:45am EDT Nevsun Continues to Expand Harena with High Grade Drill Results [PR Newswire more]
  • Red Pine Exploration Inc. (RPX CV) Visit
    • 06:00am EDT Red Pine Exploration Continues to Intersect Hanging Wall Mineralization, Wawa Gold Project & Initiates Brokered Financing [Marketwired more]
  • Sarama Resources Ltd. (SWA CV) Visit
    • 07:45am EDT Sarama Resources Delineates Additional Oxide Mineralisation over Strike Length of 1.3km at the South Houndé Project in Burkina Faso [PR Newswire more]
  • Starcore International Mines Ltd. (SAM CN) Visit
    • 07:00am EDT Starcore & Cortez Gold to Amalgamate [Marketwired more]

View more of Tuesday's news headlines here. Our news headlines update each TSX/TSXv trading day, typically mid morning and then several times during the trading day.

 

Previous Friday Outlook for Gold Next Week

See Friday Outlook for Gold Next Week - Call History

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