Last Updated With Closing Market Prices and Document Filings from: 3 March 2015 (as available at TSX closing time).
Any investor in the resource companies in general and TSXV miners in particular should review the excellent material provided by US Global Investors in a recent report titled: MANANGING EXPECTATIONS: Anticipate Before You Participate in the Market. Highlights include:
Oscillators, Standard Deviation and Mean Reversion as a model for understanding the mining sector.
Patterns in Trading which includes Intraday Market Performance of the TSX Venture Exchange a chart you should review before your next buy/sell of a TSXv stock.
Visit U.S. Global Investors and sign-up for weekly Investor Alerts and learn how to follow the money.
The 2014 update to the Periodic Table of Commodity Returns (Pd was #1 while Au was #5) is available here.
Use the form below to visually inspect the correlation between the closing market prices of TSX/TSXv gold/silver equities and spot market prices for gold and/or silver and/or copper.
Feedback from one of the 1st users (beta 001):
To quote the cop in Superbad, that metric is ''superbadass!''. And fun.
Since we come to the junior producer field looking for correlation, this is definately right up a stock pickers alley. Definately a home run. ...
Using the most recently available quarterly production reports, the gold and silver stocks listed on the TSX/TSXv are reporting production totals on a rolling 4 quarters of:
Gold: 30.3M ounces (1,038.86 tons or 942.44 tonnes), a 2% change over the 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.
Silver: 179.68M ounces (6,160.46 tons or 5,588.67 tonnes), a 5.2% change over the previous 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.
The running totals for quarterly production numbers for companies with a quarter ending in the months of October, November and December 2014, along with the changes on a Quarter on Quarter (QoQ) basis, for TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver producers are:
Latest Q Report
Latest Q Report
|75 of 89||8,307,248 oz
Gold reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from gold:
All Gold Equities
Based on gold production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv gold producers have 21.5 years of gold reserves.
Silver reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from silver:
All Silver Equities
Based on silver production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv silver producers have 33.6 years of reserves.
The following table includes TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5 of their in situ metal values from gold or silver (in US$).
Type of Equity
Estimated Discovery Cost
Net Working Capital
TSX/TSXv company may appear at most one time in the following table. Companies without a gold/silver resource (generators, historic and grass roots) are included on the basis of qualitative assessment of descriptions published in quarterly financial statements.
|Category||# of Companies in Category|
Gold/Silver Streaming and Royalty Companies
Gold/Silver Generator Model Companies
Gold/Silver Explorers with Historic Resource
Gold/Silver Grass Roots Explorers
Total Companies Listed in Sedar.com
Note 1: All TSX/TSXv listed companies are required to file in Sedar.com. However, Sedar.com companies include current companies, companies that no longer file (i.e. as a result of take over, merger, re-organization, bankruptcy, etc.), CNDX companies (Canadian over the counter market listings), and companies listed on foreign exchanges (e.g. US OTC, London, etc.) that have some connection with Canadian investors.
ETF and stock picking group returns and profiles are unavailable while we do some site upgrades. Expected return t.b.d. base on visitor feedback.
27 February (outlook for 6 March): While the week of 27 February ended up, the move was not enough to negate the multi-week down trend.
Observations on the past week:
The GDX Visual Correlation chart shows that market cap weighted average of the GDX Producers (dashed black line) on the TSX moved up aggressively on any up tics in price of gold (gold line) while down tics in the price of gold results in limited downside moves in the GDX. Clearly the gold equities are biased towards the upside.
The U.S.D. index remains strong and platinum continues to trade below gold, again all supporting a continuation of the current down trend.
Shanghai physical delivery from vault for the week ending 27 February (to be reported 6 March) is expected to show 2015 YTD lagging the same period in 2014. The 2015 gains earlier in the year are probably due to the late arrival of the week long Spring Festival in 2015 relative to 2014.
Shanghai Daily settlement volume in February 2015 did set a monthly record. Since settlement leads physical delivery (but not all settlements result in physical delivery), the outlook for 2015 physical demand from China remains strong, although it may be slightly below 2014 going into March.
Gold Priced in Yuan is in a down trend relative to prices 6 months and 1 year earlier. It has been suggested that Chinese demand is strongest when the price of gold in Yuan is rising and not when it is falling (a study on Chinese demand as evidenced by physical gold delivery from vault versus price of gold in Yuan is on my to do list).
The weight of evidence suggests the probabiities still point to a continuation of the gold down trend with the gold equities expected to follow suit. The up tic in gold and gold equities last week is not supported by the gold action since equities are clearly biased to the upside (big moves up with gold ups and limited moves down when gold falls) so one has to expect that the market will disappoint the enthusiastic majority view.
As always do check out the Gold Game Film for insights from Frank Holmes every Monday morning on what to expect for gold and gold equities. And watch the day to day action in the GDX Visual Correlations with price of gold for any signals that gold is breaking the down trend.
View Previous Friday Outlook for Gold Next Week for results of past Friday calls.
|TSX/TSXv Grouping||TSX/TSXv Total Market Capitalization
(Millions of US$)
|Gold & Silver Producers||$96,274|
|Gold & Silver Streamers||$20,398|
|Gold & Silver Developers||$7,861|
|Gold & Silver Explorers||$3,866|
|Total TSX/TSXv Gold & Silver Miners||$128,399|
|Market Cap Estimate For the World's
Gold & Silver miners (Millions of US$)
Note: All TSX/TSXv companies with at least 12.5% of their total in situ metal value coming from either gold or silver and which match the category definitions, are included in the above table.
Gold & Silver Producers category includes those companies that report quarterly production counts and revenues for gold and/or silver production.
Gold & Silver Streamers category includes companies focused on creating gold/silver streams or royalty income flows.
Gold & Silver Developers category includes companies with an explicit plan to start production in the near term or which have a spending profile and work plans to imply potential future production.
Gold & Silver Explorers category includes companies that are primarily focused on expanding resource counts at one or more existing gold and silver projects without indicating plans for future production.
Generator and grass roots companies are not covered.
Market capitalization is always computed using closing market price (expressed in US$ using exchange rates in effact at market closing time) and the issued share of each company. Updates are made daily after the TSX market close.
TSX/TSXv Market Share Assumptions: the TSX/TSXv gold producers are estimated to represent approximately 33% of the world's gold producers since the TSX/TSXv gold producers report approximately 1/3 of the world's yearly gold production. The streamers, explorers and developers are estimated to represent very roughly 50% of the world total for companies in those groupings.
The Market Cap Estimate For the World's Gold & Silver miners is computed based on the actual TSX/TSXv market capitalizations, computed on a daily basis here using closing market prices and Sedar.com material filings as available at the TSX market closing time, and applying the market share assumptions detailed above.
Detailed fundamental metrics on the TSX/TSXv gold and silver miners, including per company details such as:
gold and silver reserves / resources breakdowns
enterprise value per ounce of gold reserve (or resource)
average ore value per tonne
breakdown of percentage of gold equivalent ounces by country (2 letter ISO codes)
options to fully customize report to your specific needs
are available on a subscription basis. Contact email@example.com to request a free no obligation evaluation copy of a TSX/TSXv gold/silver miner monthly report.
If you are using in house staff to maintain such metrics then you should consider the advantages of outsourcing this task to the GoldMinerPulse team which can prepare custom reports using XML, Excel spreadsheets and/or private access PHP pages.
Per the LBMA website, all GOFO data was discontinued as of 30 January 2015. The LBMA website references www.trioptima.com and provides contacts into this organization on the Discontinuation of GOFO transition information page. Thanks in advance to anyone who can provide a good overview blog on the LBMA to trioptima transition.
20 February (outlook for 27 February): Reviewing a normalized relative price change for gold versus the normalized relative price change for the Market Cap Weighted average of the TSX miners in the GDX (as can be seen from the "gold" line and the "dash black" line in GDX Visual Correlation ) shows both are in well defined down trends. Past history suggests that a well established trend going into a week is more likely to remain in place than change during the week.
Therefore the call for the Feb 27th close has to be for lower prices in both gold and gold stocks. From the start of the current down trend, the gold has dropped more sharply than gold stocks - at some point in the trend, a relative normalization between gold and stocks is expected making the down side risk for gold stocks to be greater than the down side risk for gold.
With the Shanghai Gold Exchange closed for part of the week for Spring Festival Chinese demand is not expect to cause a trend change, especially given the near record level of monthly settlements already completed in February.
The U.S.D. index remains strong and platinum continues to trade below gold, again all supporting a continuation of the current down trend.
As always do check out the Gold Game Film for insights from Frank Holmes every Monday morning on what to expect for gold and gold stocks.
View Previous Friday Outlook Calls for results of past Friday calls.
13 February (outlook for 20 February): Platinum continues to trade lower than gold. The U.S. Dollar Index, while off slightly from mid week, is still near a multi-year high. Both factors suggest gold is heading lower next week.
Shanghai Daily Settlement were elevated and weekly gold delivery from vault is better than 2014 YTD even accounting for the differences in the Chinese New Year week long shutdown. Strong Shanghai action puts a floor to gold prices while the holidays may provide some relief on any strains in physical deliveries.
While I strongly suspect gold leasing rates are once again strongly negative I have not been able to find a source to confirm the real rates today.
Since the Chinese demand has been met while gold prices have fallen, coupled with strong U.S. Dollar Index, weak platinum prices, and start of a week long holiday on Wednesday, I believe the probabilities favor another week of falling gold prices (most likely) to flat gold prices (less likely). Rising gold prices with immediate Chinese demand would be a surprise but as always watch the Frank Holmes Monday Game Show on Kitco to get a fresh look at the start of the week.
6 February (outlook for 13 February): Platinum continues to trade well below gold and a strong U.S. Dollar Index point to further weakness in gold for the coming week.
It would be nice to see where the GOFO rates are at to guage availability of gold for next week. But fortunately, GOFO rates are no longer published by the LBMA.
Shanghai physical demand is outpacing 2014 on a YTD basis but that is at least partially due to the timing of Chinese New Year and the week long Chinese Spring Festival break which starts 19 February in 2015 versus a 31 January 2014 start. Gold price in Yuan is down slightly on a weekly basis and also from 6 months ago.
Outlook for 13 February is for a continuation of the price declines from this week. Ultimately, as happened this week, news events could hold the largest sway to the price direction. Listen to the Frank Holmes 9 February 2015 Gold Game Film on Kitco and his regular interviews on Bloomberg to to guage next week in real time.
30 January (outlook for 6 February): The U.S. dollar index holding strong, GOFO rates remaining solidly positive even after the drop in gold prices on the 29th, and platinum continuing to trade well below gold all point to continued weakness in gold next week.
However strong gold delivery from vault and record monthly settlement volumes on the Shanghai Gold Exchange coupled with the fact there are still three more weeks for gold sales before the 2015 Spring Festival week, and finally rising gold prices in Yuan point to a rising gold price.
With conflicting positives and negatives gold prices are most likely to drift sideways waiting for news to select the ultimate trend for the week.
23 January (outlook for 30 January): Rising GOFO rates coupled with an $1,049M inflow into TSX gold stocks in the GDX ETF (Jan22/15), a strong up move in the US Dollar Index (DXY), and the recent move in price of platinum to a negative premium to gold suggests an above average probability of a pull back in price of gold going into next week -- I expect to see the price of gold lower by 30 January.
The daily changes in TSX/TSXv gold/silver equity holdings in the Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX), Market Vectors Gold Junior Miners (GDXJ), BMO Junior Gold Index ETF (ZJG) and Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM) are noted below.
26 January - GDX increased TSX holdings by $25.0M. GDXJ and ZJG.TO holdings were unchanged. SGDM outstanding units increased by 150,000.
23 January - GDX increased TSX holdings by $85.9M. GDXJ and ZJG.TO holdings were unchanged. SGDM outstanding units increased by 100,000.
22 January - GDX increased TSX holdings by $1049.1M. GDXJ and ZJG.TO holdings were unchanged. SGDM outstanding units increased by 400,000.
21 January - GDX increased TSX holdings by $22.6M. GDXJ and ZJG.TO holdings were unchanged. SGDM outstanding units increased by 1,300,000.
20 January - GDX increased TSX holdings by $69.7M. GDXJ increased TSX holdings by $6.9M. SGDM outstanding units increased by 300,000. ZJG.TO outstanding units were unchanged.
Seabridge Gold (SEA CN, SA), a dynamic, well-funded company active in Northern British Columbia, is the only gold explorer/developer included in both the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) and the newly-launched Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM). The Seabridge KSM project has received final approval of its Environmental Assessment Application and is only the second large-scale mining project in Canada to receive federal approval in the past five years - see Why KSM Makes Sense. Also see Seabridge Gold Inc. Project Summary and Seabridge Gold home page for more.
The Shanghai Gold Exchange Yuan Renminbi price of gold and premium/discount in US dollars relative to the Kitco spot price at TSX close follows (yearly average and 1 year rolling time period comparisons):
Note: The SGE closed on 17 February and will reopen for trading on 25 February after the New Year and Spring Festival holidays. See China Public Holiday Calendar for more on Chinese dates.Yearly Average Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium:
2015 (YTD average): $4.51
2014 (Full year average): $4.11
2013 (Full year average): $16.09
|Date||Shanghai Gold Exchange Close - Au(T+D)||Kitco Spot Price at TSX Close||SGE Δ|
|3 March 2015||244.85||$1213||$1203||$10|
|2 March 2015||246.90||$1224||$1205||$19|
|27 February 2015||244.89||$1215||$1211||$4|
|26 February 2015||244.35||$1215||$1209||$6|
|25 February 2015||244.45||$1215||$1205||$10|
|24 February 2015||Spring Festival||$1201||na|
|2 September 2014||252.48||$1278||$1265||$12|
|1 September 2014||254.69||$1289||holiday||na|
|29 August 2014||254.92||$1291||$1287||$3|
|28 August 2014||254.90||$1291||$1290||$1|
|27 August 2014||254.68||$1289||$1283||$6|
|26 August 2014||255.57||$1292||$1283||$10|
|4 March 2014||263.85||$1336||$1335||$1|
|3 March 2014||266.19||$1347||$1351||-$4|
|28 February 2014||262.68||$1346||$1329||$17|
|27 February 2014||261.39||$1326||$1331||-$4|
|26 February 2014||264.96||$1346||$1329||$17|
|25 February 2014||261.90||$1330||$1341||-$11|
Currency conversions made using spot rates available on the date. The SGE Δ is computed as the SGE closing price in US$ minus Kitco Spot Price (bid) at TSX Close.
See the SGE page for daily updates on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, including a comparison of SGE gold delivery from vault in 2014 versus 2013.
See schedule of holidays in China in 2015 for dates the SGE will be closed. 2 January was the New Year's weekend holiday. The next holiday will be Spring Festival Eve and Chinese New Year holidays started 18 February and ending 24 February.
Select Tuesday's news headlines from the 1,621 mining stocks (producers, developers, explorers, base metal producers plus a few of the capital pool companies) GoldMinerPulse tracks:
View more of Tuesday's news headlines here. Our news headlines update each TSX/TSXv trading day, typically mid morning and then several times during the trading day.
What do Vladimir Putin, the Islamic State, and a fair number of Swiss citizens share? And on which single issue do economists of virtually every stripe agree?
Russia's president, the Islamic State, and many Swiss all harbor a deep suspicion about government-issued paper currencies. Mainstream economists, who rarely can reach a conclusion on anything, are united in their disdain for the metal. John Maynard Keynes famously called it a "barbarous relic," and Milton Friedman dismissed its use as money, declaring "you might as well use pork bellies" as the basis of a monetary system.
Mr. Market, for his part, is duly agnostic. But after pummeling gold steadily lower from its peak around $1,900 an ounce in September 2011, he is showing signs that he could be done dumping on the metal, which hit a low of $1,131.85 an ounce this month. Gold-mining stocks, which often point to the future direction of bullion, have moved up sharply in the past couple of weeks.
Barrons.com's technical guru, Michael Kahn, last week wrote that signs of a return to a
bull market in the metal are visible on the charts. He sees gold testing resistance around $1,250 an
ounce in coming weeks. If successful, a test of $1,500 would seem plausible "if the bulls remain in
control," which would still be well short of the historic $1,922 peak of September 2011, marked by a
frenzy of television and radio advertising for bullion.
Read the complete article at Barron's Up and Down Wall Street, Nov 21, 2014