Last Updated With Closing Market Prices and Document Filings from: 6 October 2015 (as available at TSX closing time).
I have looked at the linear regression on gold price over the 2H of each year from 2005 to current YTD and presented the results as 10 charts at the top of this column and the top of the column on the right. The charts are group by patterns, the up years (years where the 2H linear regression was positive and gold prices ended higher at Q4 relative the price at the end of Q3), down years (years where the 2H linear regression was negative and the gold prices ended lower at Q4 relative to the price at the end of Q3), trend fail years (trend price quite different from actual Q4 price), and 2015 year to date showing 2H correlation based on data to day (updated daily).
In each of the charts (this column and the column on the right), the last trading day in Q3 is marked by a vertical dotted line while the gold price on that day is shown by a horizontal solid line. The linear regression line shown for each year was computed using 2H gold prices while the color (greenish for up trend and reddish for down trend) denotes the full year gold price trend direction.
Here Are Two Ways Investors Can Take Advantage of the Fed's Uncertainty - the decision is a welcome one for both gold demand and new home purchases.
Use the form below to visually inspect the correlation between the closing market prices of TSX/TSXv gold/silver equities and spot market prices for gold and/or silver and/or copper.
Feedback from one of the 1st users (beta 001):
To quote the cop in Superbad, that metric is ''superbadass!''. And fun.
Since we come to the junior producer field looking for correlation, this is definitely right up a stock pickers alley. Definately a home run. ...
Using the most recently available quarterly production reports, the gold and silver stocks listed on the TSX/TSXv are reporting production totals on a rolling 4 quarters of:
Gold: 25.93M ounces (889.03 tons or 806.51 tonnes), a 4% change over the 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.
Silver: 184.28M ounces (6,318.17 tons or 5,731.75 tonnes), a 1.4% change over the previous 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.
The running totals for quarterly production numbers for companies with a quarter ending in the months of April, May and June 2015, along with the changes on a Quarter on Quarter (QoQ) basis, for TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver producers are:
Latest Q Report
Latest Q Report
|81 of 84||6,250,865 oz
Gold reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from gold:
All Gold Equities
Based on gold production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv gold producers have 21.5 years of gold reserves.
Silver reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from silver:
All Silver Equities
Based on silver production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv silver producers have 33.6 years of reserves.
The following table includes TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5 of their in situ metal values from gold or silver (in US$).
Type of Equity
Estimated Discovery Cost
Net Working Capital
TSX/TSXv company may appear at most one time in the following table. Companies without a gold/silver resource (generators, historic and grass roots) are included on the basis of qualitative assessment of descriptions published in quarterly financial statements.
|Category||# of Companies in Category|
Gold/Silver Streaming and Royalty Companies
Gold/Silver Generator Model Companies
Gold/Silver Grass Roots Explorers
Total Companies Listed in Sedar.com
Note 1: All TSX/TSXv listed companies are required to file in Sedar.com. However, Sedar.com companies include current companies, companies that no longer file (i.e. as a result of take over, merger, re-organization, bankruptcy, etc.), CNDX companies (Canadian over the counter market listings), and companies listed on foreign exchanges (e.g. US OTC, London, etc.) that have some connection with Canadian investors.
Contact firstname.lastname@example.org to request a free no obligation evaluation copy of a TSX/TSXv gold/silver miner daily, weekly and monthly reports and private view web pages. I will be happy to work with you to design a product that matches your exact information capture and processing needs.
If you are using in house staff to maintain such metrics then you should consider the advantages of outsourcing this task to the GoldMinerPulse team which can prepare custom reports using XML, Excel spreadsheets and/or private access PHP pages.
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The plot for the 2H of 2015 YTD, as presented below, is updated daily with gold closing prices - as a result the regression line will changes as we move to the end of the year.
Gold Price Linear Regression Over The Last 50+ Years - September 2015 SnapShot is up and the daily updates of these gold regression plots are available at Gold Price Linear Regression.
See corr(x,y) fir scatter plots with the gold price versus tonnes of gold held in GLD, HUI, silver prices, Brent Oil prices, copper spot prices, LBMA prices, US Dollar Index and Shanghai Gold Exchange daily settlement volumes.
Shanghai Gold Exchange, physical gold delivery from vaults is at record levels in 2015.
Review the linear regression of the 4PM east coast closing price of gold over time frames of years, quarterly and monthly here.
A chart study of the daily correlation between gold price and other markets is available under the navigation tab corr(x,y).
I am expecting gold to end close to flat with some possible large swings up and/or down before the 9 October close. The quarterly regression is virtually flat on October 2nd.
Daily updates for the 2H 2015 chart are posted below. It should be noted that the final 2015 2H regression plot can be expected to change significantly depending on the gold price action in the final quarter of 2015. Watch the daily updates to the chart below and compare against the 2 October 2015 finish.
The trend from May 2013 is still very much down and at best the 2015 2H linear regression on the price gold is showing the early stages of confirming a gold price bottom.
Longer term, as I have been for the past several weeks, I continue to look for a retest of the $108x levels over the next several weeks to months. I believe a naive interpretation of gold price regression from the 50+ year view down to the quarterly regression view is consistent with price of gold falling further. And given that regression to the mean typically involves over shoot / under shoot a drop well below $108x levels, and a whole new process of bottom building, should not come as a surprise. Alternatively, I would be extremely surprised if the recent gold price lows turned into a new multi-year low in the price of gold.
View Friday Outlook for Gold Next Week for past weeks here.
GDX is by far the largest gold equity ETF today - 29 May 2015 net assets were $6.3B U.S., roughly equal to 2% of the estimated total market capitalization of all of the world's gold and silver miners (public + private). And with more than $27B US in physical gold holdings, the GLD ETF is equal to approximately 10% of that world gold and silver mining sector.
The monthly money flows for the GLD and GDX ETFs along with price of gold (POG) and Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) daily settlement volumes totals for the month are detailed below.
|YYYY-MM||Net Flow (US$)||Average
|See Gold Equity ETF Money Flows for per
day flows over last month + definitions
Note: China markets are closed for Golden Week until October 8th.
|Daily Price of Gold changes
Money Flows in/out of GLD, GDX and GDXJ
plus the SGE Premiums and Settlement volumes
|Sep 7||Labor Day||14.52t|
A ? indicates that the closing data for the ETF is to be released - ETF updates happen typically after 8PM EST. Otherwise the cell is left blank if there was no change from the previous day.
A X indicates the ETF did NOT release the end of day holdings -- a very rare event but Van Eck failed to release an update for GDXJ and GDX for August 26/27 (apparently due to a Bank of New York Mellon having an issue with its technological systems). As of August 31 GDX/GDXJ reporting appears to be back to normal.
POG % Chg is computed based on the Kitco gold spot price bid at TSX market closing time and the price at the previous TSX market close.
For GLD, a positive cell value indicated the value of the gold (in millions of dollars) added to the ETF while a negative cell value indicated the value of gold removed from the ETF. Values are computed from data provided by the GLD ETF operator.
For the gold equity ETF trading symbol columns, a positive cell value indicates the values of the equities (in millions of dollars) added to the ETF while a negative cell value (shown in red) indicates the value of the equities removed from the ETF.
The SGE Prem. (Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium) is computed as the difference between the SGE gold closing price (coverted at exchange rates in effect at the TSX close) and gold spot price as reported by Kitco at the TSX close. SGE Sett. (Shanghai Gold Exchange Settlement Volume) is sum of the Au(T+D) and mAu(T+D) daily settlement volumes as reported by the SGE.
The Shanghai Gold Exchange Yuan Renminbi price of gold and premium/discount in US dollars relative to the Kitco spot price at TSX close follows (yearly average and 1 year rolling time period comparisons):
Note: See China Public Holiday Calendar for the dates of up coming Chinese holidays. For 2015, National Day holiday runs from 1 October to 7 October and is an important time for public gold purchases.Yearly Average Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium:
2015 (YTD average): $3.03
2014 (Full year average): $2.02
2013 (Full year average): $14.94
|Date||Shanghai Gold Exchange Close - Au(T+D)||Kitco Spot Price at TSX Close||SGE Δ|
|6 October 2015||Golden Week||$1148||na|
|5 October 2015||Golden Week||$1136||na|
|2 October 2015||Golden Week||$1138||na|
|1 October 2015||Golden Week||$1115||na|
|30 September 2015||229.88||$1125||$1116||$9|
|29 September 2015||230.66||$1127||$1128||$1|
|7 April 2015||241.30||$1211||$1210||$1|
|6 April 2015||Qing Ming Jie||$1215||NA|
|3 April 2015||239.65||$1214||NA||NA|
|2 April 2015||240.30||$1206||$1201||$5|
|1 April 2015||236.48||$1187||$1204||$17|
|31 March 2015||235.62||$1182||$184||$2|
|7 October 2014||Golden Week||$1210||NA|
|6 October 2014||Golden Week||$1207||NA|
|3 October 2014||Golden Week||$1214||NA|
|2 October 2014||Golden Week||$1214||NA|
|1 October 2014||Golden Week||$1214||NA|
|30 September 2014||241.22||$1222||$1209||$13|
Currency conversions made using spot rates available on the date. The SGE Δ is computed as the SGE closing price in US$ minus Kitco Spot Price (bid) at TSX Close.
A ? indicates that the closing data update is pending.
See the SGE page for daily updates on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, including a comparison of SGE gold delivery from vault in 2014 versus 2013.
|TSX/TSXv Grouping||TSX/TSXv Total Market Capitalization
(Millions of US$)
|Gold & Silver Producers||$63,350|
|Gold & Silver Streamers||$13,176|
|Gold & Silver Developers||$6,983|
|Gold & Silver Explorers||$2,702|
|Total TSX/TSXv Gold & Silver Miners||$86,211|
|Market Cap Estimate For the World's
Gold & Silver miners (Millions of US$)
Note: All TSX/TSXv companies with at least 12.5% of their total in situ metal value coming from either gold or silver and which match the category definitions, are included in the above table.
Gold & Silver Producers category includes those companies that report quarterly production counts and revenues for gold and/or silver production.
Gold & Silver Streamers category includes companies focused on creating gold/silver streams or royalty income flows.
Gold & Silver Developers category includes companies with an explicit plan to start production in the near term or which have a spending profile and work plans to imply potential future production.
Gold & Silver Explorers category includes companies that are primarily focused on expanding resource counts at one or more existing gold and silver projects without indicating plans for future production.
Generator and grass roots companies are not covered.
Market capitalization is always computed using closing market price (expressed in US$ using exchange rates in effact at market closing time) and the issued share of each company. Updates are made daily after the TSX market close.
TSX/TSXv Market Share Assumptions: the TSX/TSXv gold producers are estimated to represent approximately 33% of the world's gold producers since the TSX/TSXv gold producers report approximately 1/3 of the world's yearly gold production. The streamers, explorers and developers are estimated to represent very roughly 50% of the world total for companies in those groupings.
The Market Cap Estimate For the World's Gold & Silver miners is computed based on the actual TSX/TSXv market capitalizations, computed on a daily basis here using closing market prices and Sedar.com material filings as available at the TSX market closing time, and applying the market share assumptions detailed above.
Detailed fundamental metrics on the TSX/TSXv gold and silver miners, including per company details such as:
gold and silver reserves / resources breakdowns
enterprise value per ounce of gold reserve (or resource)
average ore value per tonne
breakdown of percentage of gold equivalent ounces by country (2 letter ISO codes)
options to fully customize report to your specific needs
are available on a subscription basis.