Last Updated With Closing Market Prices and Document Filings from: 17 April 2015 (as available at TSX closing time).
Any investor in the resource companies in general and TSXV miners in particular should review the excellent material provided by US Global Investors in a recent report titled: MANAGING EXPECTATIONS: Anticipate Before You Participate in the Market. Highlights include:
Oscillators, Standard Deviation and Mean Reversion as a model for understanding the mining sector.
Patterns in Trading which includes Intraday Market Performance of the TSX Venture Exchange a chart you should review before your next buy/sell of a TSXv stock.
Visit U.S. Global Investors and sign-up for weekly Investor Alerts and learn how to follow the money.
The 2014 update to the Periodic Table of Commodity Returns (Pd was #1 while Au was #5) is available here.
Use the form below to visually inspect the correlation between the closing market prices of TSX/TSXv gold/silver equities and spot market prices for gold and/or silver and/or copper.
Feedback from one of the 1st users (beta 001):
To quote the cop in Superbad, that metric is ''superbadass!''. And fun.
Since we come to the junior producer field looking for correlation, this is definately right up a stock pickers alley. Definately a home run. ...
NOTE: Newmont Gold (NEM on the NYSE), which did at one time trade on the TSX and which still files reports via Sedar.com, is not technically a TSX/TSXv gold producer and was therefore removed from GoldMinerPulse statistics effective 6 March 2015. Previously the NEM statistics were incorrectly counted as part of the TSX/TSXv totals.
Using the most recently available quarterly production reports, the gold and silver stocks listed on the TSX/TSXv are reporting production totals on a rolling 4 quarters of:
Gold: 25.27M ounces (866.40 tons or 785.98 tonnes), a 2.4% change over the 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.
Silver: 180.82M ounces (6,199.54 tons or 5,624.13 tonnes), a 4.3% change over the previous 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.
The running totals for quarterly production numbers for companies with a quarter ending in the months of January, February and March 2015, along with the changes on a Quarter on Quarter (QoQ) basis, for TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver producers are:
Latest Q Report
Latest Q Report
|33 of 87||1,657,007 oz
Gold reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from gold:
All Gold Equities
Based on gold production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv gold producers have 21.5 years of gold reserves.
Silver reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from silver:
All Silver Equities
Based on silver production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv silver producers have 33.6 years of reserves.
The following table includes TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5 of their in situ metal values from gold or silver (in US$).
Type of Equity
Estimated Discovery Cost
Net Working Capital
TSX/TSXv company may appear at most one time in the following table. Companies without a gold/silver resource (generators, historic and grass roots) are included on the basis of qualitative assessment of descriptions published in quarterly financial statements.
|Category||# of Companies in Category|
Gold/Silver Streaming and Royalty Companies
Gold/Silver Generator Model Companies
Gold/Silver Explorers with Historic Resource
Gold/Silver Grass Roots Explorers
Total Companies Listed in Sedar.com
Note 1: All TSX/TSXv listed companies are required to file in Sedar.com. However, Sedar.com companies include current companies, companies that no longer file (i.e. as a result of take over, merger, re-organization, bankruptcy, etc.), CNDX companies (Canadian over the counter market listings), and companies listed on foreign exchanges (e.g. US OTC, London, etc.) that have some connection with Canadian investors.
ETF and stock picking group returns and profiles are unavailable while we do some site upgrades. Expected return t.b.d. base on visitor feedback.
The multi week down trend in gold remains in place. While a break out to the upside continues to appear possible, it still hasn't happened as indicated by the strength of U.S.D. index, outflows from the GDX ETF, and gold price trend in Yuan Renminbi.
However the daily settlement volume at the Shanghai Gold Exchange (suggesting a shortage in physical gold supply making a big down move difficult) suggests limited downside pressure. The normalized relative price changes of gold versus the GDX provides no hint of market bias. Therefore prices are likely to be driven by the unexpected news events, either positive or negative.
Conditions for a short trade on Agnico Eagle continue to look good, but timing remains an open question.
The GDX Visual Correlation chart shows that market cap weighted average of the GDX Producers on the TSX (dashed black line) tracking of gold moving very nicely in synch with little difference in normalized relative price changes (market expectations for gold and GDX equities are in balanced).
GDX, the largest gold equity ETF, showed an outflow of US$118.6M for the week, up from US$110M the prior week. Again, a week not unlike December 2014 where price of gold was falling.
The Shanghai physical delivery from vault for the week ending 27 March (reporting is always on a one week delay basis) was 647 tonnes YTD, a 10.6% increase over the comparable 2014 YTD figures.
Daily settlement volumes are off sharply from the Q1 pace which suggest that physical gold may an issue -- in prior years, times of negative GOFO rates (short supply of physical gold for near term delivery) often led to a drop off in SGE daily settlment volumes. That appears to be happening now but this is just an estimate given that GOFO rates apparently are no longer published on the web.
Gold priced in Yuan Renminbi remains in a down trend based on current week, 6 month and 1 year view.
Conditions continue to favor a short trade on AEM:
The erroneous overstatement of gold equivalent reserves with the corresponding effect of overstating gold equivalent grade contained in the AEM press release of 11 February 2015 has been corrected at the company's website but not yet at SEDAR as per mining disclosure requirements.
Soltoro Ltd. meanwhile announced on April 10 2015 its acquisition by AEM (see press release) by share exchange with share price based on AEM's volume-weighted average price per share on the TSX for the five trading days ended April 9, 2015, in other words, share price calculated on the basis of the 11 February error.
Consider the effect on share price among gold producers factors such as:
quarterly gold equivalent production counts
current gold equivalent reserves
average in situ metal value per tonne of reserves (gold equivalent grade of gold reserves)
For example, consider AEM's stock price drop to $47 from $58 after the company announced 19 October 2011 Goldex mine to suspend production during investigation and remediation of water inflow and ground stability issue The event caused a loss of quarterly gold production as well as a drop in total gold reserves.
Note: I have opened up a view of my internal AEM data model which I use to build by subscription per TSX/TSXv miner custom views. You can view the same page based on the 11 February LaRonde base metal reserve disclosures here (AEM with Feb 11th error uncorrected) -- notice the jump in LaRonde relative to other projects when the 11 February 2015 disclosure error is uncorrected.
The impact of the 10 times overstatement of LaRonde Base Metal Reserves can be easily computed from data tables provided (updated daily after market close) in the views above. The 11 February base metal reserve disclosure moved the LaRonde project from the 3rd most valuable project to the most valuable project held by AEM and it was on the basis of this shift I immediately spotted the disclosure error.
The drop in AEM share price after the Goldex announcement, in my view, far exceeded the loss of quarterly gold production. I suggest that the price drop was also a reflection of the corresponding reduction in gold equivalent reserves. Other factors, including the surprise of such an announcement, probably also played a role but a lesser role.
Now consider what might have been the effect, if any, on AEM stock price for the five trading days ended April 9, 2015 of a timely correction to the 11 February 2015 overstatement by a factor of 10 in the LaRonde base metal reserves and the corresponding gold equivalent reserve grades one might reasonable calculate (see 11 February 2015 Error in LaRonde Reserve dislosure proof).
I submit as a general proposition that among TSX gold producers, those such as AEM who have a higher average gold equivalent grade (or higher average rock value per tonne), trade at a premium compared to lower-grade producers (low rock value per tonne), such as Kinross. After all, at a top level, it costs the same amount to extract, move, crush, and refine a tonne of ore independent of its metal content. So, add more gold and base metal content to a tonne of reserves and one can reasonably expect more profitable operations, all other factors being equal.
Unfortunately, AEM's erroneous overstatement of gold equivalent reserves at LaRonde may not be corrected at SEDAR until Februrary 2016 when the company files its annual reserves update. When the correction is made, we will have a first-hand data point on the extent to which trading robots that read news may have been "confused" by the 11 February 2015 error. Why the securities regulator has declined to enforce disclosure requirements in this case - a matter of clear 'black-letter law' - is troubling particularly in view of AEM's acquisition of Soltoro on the basis of share exchange, but it is what it is.
Precedent suggests the preferred approach would be for the regulator to impose a cease trade order (CTO) until the company issues a correction to the 11 February 2015 error. This is the only way to assess market reaction to the error. While a CTO for a simple numerical error may seem harsh or unfair to AEM, current conditions including share price may exist because of that error. If so, gold juniors in addition to Soltoro purchased with AEM shares may be getting a bad deal if the error has artificially inflated share price.
On balance, the break out from the recent gold down trend has yet to be confirmed, although strong price pressure on the upside existed much of the past week.
Based on available evidence discussed above I expect the down trend to remain in place through next week with prices movements to trend sideways while awaiting unexpected news events.
View Friday Outlook for Gold Next Week for past Friday outlooks.
12 March - go long Rubicon (RBY, RMX CN) and buy Agnico Eagle (AEM, AEM CN) near term PUTS to capitalize on an excessive premium in AEM for its Canadian dollar production and the missing production bonus in RBY.
Any one relying on the Agnico Eagle reserve numbers, as available in Sedar.com (as of 16 March 2015) would compute an 18% error in the company's gold equivalent reserves -- there is a factor of 10 error in the base metal percentages in an 11 February 2015 news release which has never been corrected in Sedar -- more details here.
Fund flowing into (fund is purchasing shares) and flowing out of (fund is selling shares) gold equity ETFs are a potential source of market bias. Updates are applied at the end of each trading day if the GDX or GDXJ had an inflow or outflow - no update means no change in share holdings occurred for either GDX or GDXJ.
17 April - outflow from GDX was -$43.5M. GDXJ and SGDM were unchanged.
15 April - outflow from GDX was -$99.8M. GDXJ and SGDM were unchanged.
14 April - outflow from GDX was -$19.4M. GDXJ was unchanged. Outflow from SGDM was -$2.6M.
13 April - outflow from GDX was -$27.9M. GDXJ was unchanged. Outflow from SGDM was -$3.5M.
10 April - outflow from GDX was
9 April - outflow from GDX was -$88.1M, relative to 7 April 2015 ( 8 April GDX snapshot was incompleted). GDXJ and SGDM were unchanged.
6 April - outflow from GDX was -$29.5M. GDXJ and SGDM were unchanged.
2 April - inflow to the GDX was $2.8M while outflow from the GDXJ was -$27.8M. SGDM and the newly launched SGDJ were unchanged.
31 March - outflow from GDX was -$67.7M. GDXJ gained $11.4M. SGDM lost -$0.8M since March 27.
30 March - outflow from GDX was -$14.9M. GDXJ was unchanged.
27 March - outflow from GDX was -$51.7M. GDXJ and SGDM were unchanged.
26 March - outflow from GDX was -$14.1M. GDXJ and SGDM were unchanged.
25 March - inflow into GDX was $7.8M, SGDM outflow was -$3.6M and GDXJ was unchanged.
Seabridge Gold (SEA CN, SA), a dynamic, well-funded company active in Northern British Columbia, is the only gold explorer/developer included in both the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) and the newly-launched Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM). The Seabridge KSM project has received final approval of its Environmental Assessment Application and is only the second large-scale mining project in Canada to receive federal approval in the past five years - see Why KSM Makes Sense. Also see Seabridge Gold Inc. Project Summary and Seabridge Gold home page for more.
|TSX/TSXv Grouping||TSX/TSXv Total Market Capitalization
(Millions of US$)
|Gold & Silver Producers||$83,478|
|Gold & Silver Streamers||$19,340|
|Gold & Silver Developers||$7,778|
|Gold & Silver Explorers||$3,506|
|Total TSX/TSXv Gold & Silver Miners||$114,102|
|Market Cap Estimate For the World's
Gold & Silver miners (Millions of US$)
Note: All TSX/TSXv companies with at least 12.5% of their total in situ metal value coming from either gold or silver and which match the category definitions, are included in the above table.
Gold & Silver Producers category includes those companies that report quarterly production counts and revenues for gold and/or silver production.
Gold & Silver Streamers category includes companies focused on creating gold/silver streams or royalty income flows.
Gold & Silver Developers category includes companies with an explicit plan to start production in the near term or which have a spending profile and work plans to imply potential future production.
Gold & Silver Explorers category includes companies that are primarily focused on expanding resource counts at one or more existing gold and silver projects without indicating plans for future production.
Generator and grass roots companies are not covered.
Market capitalization is always computed using closing market price (expressed in US$ using exchange rates in effact at market closing time) and the issued share of each company. Updates are made daily after the TSX market close.
TSX/TSXv Market Share Assumptions: the TSX/TSXv gold producers are estimated to represent approximately 33% of the world's gold producers since the TSX/TSXv gold producers report approximately 1/3 of the world's yearly gold production. The streamers, explorers and developers are estimated to represent very roughly 50% of the world total for companies in those groupings.
The Market Cap Estimate For the World's Gold & Silver miners is computed based on the actual TSX/TSXv market capitalizations, computed on a daily basis here using closing market prices and Sedar.com material filings as available at the TSX market closing time, and applying the market share assumptions detailed above.
Detailed fundamental metrics on the TSX/TSXv gold and silver miners, including per company details such as:
gold and silver reserves / resources breakdowns
enterprise value per ounce of gold reserve (or resource)
average ore value per tonne
breakdown of percentage of gold equivalent ounces by country (2 letter ISO codes)
options to fully customize report to your specific needs
are available on a subscription basis. Contact email@example.com to request a free no obligation evaluation copy of a TSX/TSXv gold/silver miner monthly report.
If you are using in house staff to maintain such metrics then you should consider the advantages of outsourcing this task to the GoldMinerPulse team which can prepare custom reports using XML, Excel spreadsheets and/or private access PHP pages.
Per the LBMA website, all GOFO data was discontinued as of 30 January 2015. The LBMA website references www.trioptima.com and provides contacts into this organization on the Discontinuation of GOFO transition information page. Thanks in advance to anyone who can provide a good overview blog on the LBMA to trioptima transition.
The Shanghai Gold Exchange Yuan Renminbi price of gold and premium/discount in US dollars relative to the Kitco spot price at TSX close follows (yearly average and 1 year rolling time period comparisons):
Note: See China Public Holiday Calendar for the dates of up coming Chinese holidays.Yearly Average Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium:
2015 (YTD average): $4.11
2014 (Full year average): $2.02
2013 (Full year average): $14.94
|Date||Shanghai Gold Exchange Close - Au(T+D)||Kitco Spot Price at TSX Close||SGE Δ|
|17 April 2015||239.98||$1205||$1204||$1|
|16 April 2015||240.29||$1206||$1199||$7|
|15 April 2015||238.11||$1193||$1202||-$9|
|14 April 2015||238.89||$1196||$1192||$4|
|13 April 2015||241.10||$1207||$1199||$8|
|10 April 2015||238.78||$1196||$1207||-$11|
|17 October 2014||244.60||$1242||$1238||$4|
|16 October 2014||244.37||$1242||$1240||$2|
|15 October 2014||242.06||$1229||$1239||-$10|
|14 October 2014||243.47||$1236||$1233||$3|
|13 October 2014||241.61||$1235||$1234||$2|
|10 October 2014||243.25||$1226||$1224||$2|
|18 April 2014||259.16||$1293||Good Friday||na|
|17 April 2014||259.37||$1297||$1295||$2|
|16 April 2014||258.40||$1292||$1303||-$11|
|15 April 2014||261.88||$1309||$1303||$6|
|14 April 2014||264.81||$1324||$1327||-$3|
|11 April 2014||262.38||$1314||$1318||-$4|
Currency conversions made using spot rates available on the date. The SGE Δ is computed as the SGE closing price in US$ minus Kitco Spot Price (bid) at TSX Close.
See the SGE page for daily updates on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, including a comparison of SGE gold delivery from vault in 2014 versus 2013.
See schedule of holidays in China in 2015 for dates the SGE will be closed. 2 January was the New Year's weekend holiday. The next holiday will be Spring Festival Eve and Chinese New Year holidays started 18 February and ending 24 February.
Select Friday's news headlines from the 1,902 mining stocks (producers, developers, explorers, base metal producers plus a few of the capital pool companies) GoldMinerPulse tracks:
View more of Friday's news headlines here. Our news headlines update each TSX/TSXv trading day, typically mid morning and then several times during the trading day.