GoldMinerPulse: TSX/TSXv Gold Mining and Silver Mining Companies

Last Updated With Closing Market Prices and Document Filings from: 8 October 2015 (as available at TSX closing time).


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Frank Talk - September 28, 2015 Issue

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Gold Q4 Price Estimate

I have looked at the linear regression on gold price over the 2H of each year from 2005 to current YTD and presented the results as 10 charts at the top of this column and the top of the column on the right. The charts are group by patterns, the up years (years where the 2H linear regression was positive and gold prices ended higher at Q4 relative the price at the end of Q3), down years (years where the 2H linear regression was negative and the gold prices ended lower at Q4 relative to the price at the end of Q3), trend fail years (trend price quite different from actual Q4 price), and 2015 year to date showing 2H correlation based on data to day (updated daily).

In each of the charts (this column and the column on the right), the last trading day in Q3 is marked by a vertical dotted line while the gold price on that day is shown by a horizontal solid line. The linear regression line shown for each year was computed using 2H gold prices while the color (greenish for up trend and reddish for down trend) denotes the full year gold price trend direction.

Gold Q4 Price Change - Up Trend Years

Gold Q4 Price Change - Trend Fail Years

Visual Correlations

Use the form below to visually inspect the correlation between the closing market prices of TSX/TSXv gold/silver equities and spot market prices for gold and/or silver and/or copper.

TSX/TSXv Gold/Silver Stocks Correlation With Spot Market Metal Prices
Select TSX/TSXv Gold/Silver Stock Groupings For Review

Producers in ETFs:  GDX   GDXJ   SGDM   SILJ   ZJG  

Developers/Explorers in ETFs:  GDXJ   SGDM   SILJ   ZJG  

Show Group Average
Add Spot Market Close Time Series

   Visual Correlation Chart Setup

Feedback from one of the 1st users (beta 001):

To quote the cop in Superbad, that metric is ''superbadass!''. And fun.

Since we come to the junior producer field looking for correlation, this is definitely right up a stock pickers alley. Definately a home run. ...

Very nice.


Gold and Silver Production Statistics

Production Based on Last/Latest Four Quarters

Using the most recently available quarterly production reports, the gold and silver stocks listed on the TSX/TSXv are reporting production totals on a rolling 4 quarters of:

  • Gold: 25.94M ounces (889.37 tons or 806.82 tonnes), a 4% change over the 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.

  • Silver: 184.53M ounces (6,326.74 tons or 5,739.52 tonnes), a 1.5% change over the previous 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.

The running totals for quarterly production numbers for companies with a quarter ending in the months of July, August and September 2015, along with the changes on a Quarter on Quarter (QoQ) basis, for TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver producers are:

# Producers
Gold Produced
Latest Q Report
Gold Δ
Silver Produced
Latest Q Report
Silver Δ
10 of 84 248,370 oz
8.5 tons
7.7 tonne
1% 2,129,487 oz
73 tons
66 tonne

TSX/TSXv Gold Reserves and Resources

Gold reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from gold:


Type of Equity

Gold Reserves


Gold Resources
(tons, inclusive of reserves)


Gold Producers

14198 36730

Gold Developers

4214 16077

Gold Explorers
>5M Oz AuEq

2104 7560

Gold Explorers
<5M Oz AuEq

87 5184

All Gold Equities

20602 65551

Based on gold production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv gold producers have 21.5 years of gold reserves.


TSX/TSXv Silver Reserves and Resources

Silver reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from silver:


Type of Equity

Silver Reserves


Silver Resources
(tons, inclusive of reserves)


Silver Producers

154359 372088

Silver Developers

46444 131032

Silver Explorers
>5M Oz AuEq

6788 36621

Silver Explorers
<5M Oz AuEq

426 40388

All Silver Equities

208017 580129

Based on silver production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv silver producers have 33.6 years of reserves.


TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver Equities Statistics

The following table includes TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5 of their in situ metal values from gold or silver (in US$).

Type of Equity






>5M Oz AuEq


<5M Oz AuEq


Enterprise Value
Per Oz AuEq

$60 $9 $2 $7

Estimated Discovery Cost
Per Oz AuEq

  $13 $3 $22

Net Working Capital

$19,453M $575M $189M $535M

TSX/TSXv Company Counts by Category

TSX/TSXv company may appear at most one time in the following table. Companies without a gold/silver resource (generators, historic and grass roots) are included on the basis of qualitative assessment of descriptions published in quarterly financial statements.

Category # of Companies in Category

Gold/Silver Streaming and Royalty Companies


Gold/Silver Producers


Gold/Silver Developers


Gold/Silver Explorers


Gold/Silver Generator Model Companies
(No Gold or Silver Resource)


Gold/Silver Grass Roots Explorers
(No Gold or Silver Resource)


Total Companies Listed in
(Current, historic, TSX/TSXv, CNDX, and others. See Note 1)


Note 1: All TSX/TSXv listed companies are required to file in However, companies include current companies, companies that no longer file (i.e. as a result of take over, merger, re-organization, bankruptcy, etc.), CNDX companies (Canadian over the counter market listings), and companies listed on foreign exchanges (e.g. US OTC, London, etc.) that have some connection with Canadian investors.


Outsource Your Gold Market Data Capture Tasks to GoldMinerPulse

Contact to request a free no obligation evaluation copy of a TSX/TSXv gold/silver miner daily, weekly and monthly reports and private view web pages. I will be happy to work with you to design a product that matches your exact information capture and processing needs.

If you are using in house staff to maintain such metrics then you should consider the advantages of outsourcing this task to the GoldMinerPulse team which can prepare custom reports using XML, Excel spreadsheets and/or private access PHP pages.


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Gold Q4 Price Change - Down Trend Years

2015 Year End, Year to Date

The plot for the 2H of 2015 YTD, as presented below, is updated daily with gold closing prices - as a result the regression line will changes as we move to the end of the year.

Recent News and Views

Shanghai Gold Exchange, year to date gold deliveries from vault

  • Review the linear regression of the 4PM east coast closing price of gold over time frames of years, quarterly and monthly here.

  • A chart study of the daily correlation between gold price and other markets is available under the navigation tab corr(x,y).


Outlook For Gold and Gold Equities - 3 October view for the 9 October Close

I am expecting gold to end close to flat with some possible large swings up and/or down before the 9 October close. The quarterly regression is virtually flat on October 2nd.

Daily updates for the 2H 2015 chart are posted below. It should be noted that the final 2015 2H regression plot can be expected to change significantly depending on the gold price action in the final quarter of 2015. Watch the daily updates to the chart below and compare against the 2 October 2015 finish.

The trend from May 2013 is still very much down and at best the 2015 2H linear regression on the price gold is showing the early stages of confirming a gold price bottom.

Longer term, as I have been for the past several weeks, I continue to look for a retest of the $108x levels over the next several weeks to months. I believe a naive interpretation of gold price regression from the 50+ year view down to the quarterly regression view is consistent with price of gold falling further. And given that regression to the mean typically involves over shoot / under shoot a drop well below $108x levels, and a whole new process of bottom building, should not come as a surprise. Alternatively, I would be extremely surprised if the recent gold price lows turned into a new multi-year low in the price of gold.

View Friday Outlook for Gold Next Week for past weeks here.


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Gold ETFs and Shanghai Gold Exchange

GDX is by far the largest gold equity ETF today - 29 May 2015 net assets were $6.3B U.S., roughly equal to 2% of the estimated total market capitalization of all of the world's gold and silver miners (public + private). And with more than $27B US in physical gold holdings, the GLD ETF is equal to approximately 10% of that world gold and silver mining sector.

The monthly money flows for the GLD and GDX ETFs along with price of gold (POG) and Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) daily settlement volumes totals for the month are detailed below.

YYYY-MM Net Flow (US$) Average
% Chg
SGE Avg.
See Gold Equity ETF Money Flows for per day flows over last month + definitions
2015-09 $173.1M $23.8M $1,126 0.6% 12.5 t
2015-08 $13.6M $23.8M $1,119 1.0% 16.3 t
2015-07 $1,319.4M $126.9M $1,130 4.3% 13.7 t
2015-06 $170.9M $362.5M $1,182 1.2% 12.0 t
2015-05 $912.6M $83.1M $1,197 0.2% 10.5 t
2015-04 $79.5M $558.9M $1,199 1.7% 13.4 t
2015-03 $1,302.2M $171.4M $1,179 3.8% 22.7 t
2015-02 $525.7M $351.6M $1,226 2.2% 22.9 t
2015-01 $1,559.7M $846.7M $1,254

4.5% 16.1 t
2014-12 $296.5M $522.3M $1,200

2.0% 12.1 t
2014-11 $834.5M $55.2M $1,177 3.7% 12.4 t
2014-10 $1,133.2M $247.0M $1,222

1.1% 12.8 t
2014-09 $925.4M $318.1M $1,236

4.6% 10.9 t
2014-08 $283.9M $104.4M $1,296

1.1% 9.7 t
2014-07 $399.3M $189.9M $1,311

2.3% 9.6 t
2014-06 $230.5M $504.2M $1,282

0.5% 11.5 t
2014-05 $456.8M $9.4M $1,288 0.8% 9.1 t
2014-04 $923.4M $53.2M $1,299

2.7% 9.7 t
2014-03 $411.2M $298.2M $1,335 2.7% 11.9 t
2014-02 $433.6M $59.4M $1,300

6.3% 15.2 t
2014-01 $58.6M $136.9M $1,223 1.5% 14.9 t
2013-12 $1,711.3M $109.9M $1,205

3.8% 9.3 t
2013-11 $1,165.3M $219.7M $1,252 5.0% 12.9 t
2013-10 $1,423.7M $6.8M $1,318

2.3% 12.0 t
2013-09 $569.2M $219.7M $1349 0.4% 11.9 t
2013-08 $240.2M $6.8M $1355

5.2% 8.7 t
2013-07 $1,601.8M $754.8M $1288 4.0% 5.0 t
2013-06 $1,848.0M $1,071.5M $1341

5.5% 13.3 t


  • POG - price of gold, average Kitco spot price at the close of TSX trading for each day of the month.
  • GLD flows computed from historical data provided by the SPDR GLD Gold Shares site.
  • GDX in flow of $83.1M in May was matched by a $80.1M outflow from GDXJ.
  • SGE Daily Settlement - total of daily Au(T+D) and mAu(T+D) settlement volumes for the month. See SGE Daily for definitions and charts.
  • April 2015 SGE Avg. Daily Settlement was corrected to 13.4 t (previously incorrectly reported as 15.7 t).


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Gold ETF Money Flows

Note: China markets are closed for Golden Week until October 8th.

Daily Price of Gold changes
Money Flows in/out of GLD, GDX and GDXJ
plus the SGE Premiums and Settlement volumes
mon-dd POG
% Chg
Oct 8 0.54% $51.9M $6.3M $6 12.45t
Oct 7 0.11% $65.5M $15.7M $10.9M NA NA
Oct 6 1.03% $62.2M NA NA
Oct 5 0.19% $8.1M NA NA

Oct 2 2.11% NA NA
Oct 1 0.13% $64.0M NA NA
Sep 30 1.04% $117.5M $31.7M $9 17.43t
Sep 29 0.42% $13.3M $1 13.45t
Sep 28 1.29% $40.3M $7 12.78t

Sep 25 0.52% $142.7M $8.1M $6 15.38t
Sep 24 2.08% $143.6M $42 9.38t
Sep 23 0.42% $21.8M $18.6M $4 9.93t
Sep 22 0.76% $43.0M $14 10.74t
Sep 21 0.50% $138.1M $71.9M $15.8M $9 11.42t

Sep 18 0.49% $76.1M $37.7M $6 14.87t
Sep 17 1.17% $1.8M $2.7M $8 7.76t
Sep 16 1.41% $8 9.38t
Sep 15 0.34% $2.9M $2 8.51t
Sep 14 0.10% $19.7M $4.8M $3 10.07t

Sep 11 0.22% $4 17.66t
Sep 10 0.26% $0.7M $2.8M $1 8.37t
Sep 9 1.34% $148.8M $19 8.60t
Sep 8 0.30% $3 10.22t
Sep 7 Labor Day 14.52t

Sep 4 0.28% $8.6M na na
Sep 3 0.75% $14.8M na na
Sep 2 0.57% $16.3M $15 21.09t
Sep 1 0.39% $9.9M $6 5.39t
Aug 31 0.09% $41.5M $3 11.92t

A ? indicates that the closing data for the ETF is to be released - ETF updates happen typically after 8PM EST. Otherwise the cell is left blank if there was no change from the previous day.

A X indicates the ETF did NOT release the end of day holdings -- a very rare event but Van Eck failed to release an update for GDXJ and GDX for August 26/27 (apparently due to a Bank of New York Mellon having an issue with its technological systems). As of August 31 GDX/GDXJ reporting appears to be back to normal.

POG % Chg is computed based on the Kitco gold spot price bid at TSX market closing time and the price at the previous TSX market close.

For GLD, a positive cell value indicated the value of the gold (in millions of dollars) added to the ETF while a negative cell value indicated the value of gold removed from the ETF. Values are computed from data provided by the GLD ETF operator.

For the gold equity ETF trading symbol columns, a positive cell value indicates the values of the equities (in millions of dollars) added to the ETF while a negative cell value (shown in red) indicates the value of the equities removed from the ETF.

The SGE Prem. (Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium) is computed as the difference between the SGE gold closing price (coverted at exchange rates in effect at the TSX close) and gold spot price as reported by Kitco at the TSX close. SGE Sett. (Shanghai Gold Exchange Settlement Volume) is sum of the Au(T+D) and mAu(T+D) daily settlement volumes as reported by the SGE.


Shanghai Gold Exchange Gold Closing Price Versus Kitco Closing Price

The Shanghai Gold Exchange Yuan Renminbi price of gold and premium/discount in US dollars relative to the Kitco spot price at TSX close follows (yearly average and 1 year rolling time period comparisons):

Note: See China Public Holiday Calendar for the dates of up coming Chinese holidays. For 2015, National Day holiday runs from 1 October to 7 October and is an important time for public gold purchases.

Yearly Average Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium:
  • 2015 (YTD average): $3.04

  • 2014 (Full year average): $2.02

  • 2013 (Full year average): $14.94

Rolling Week on Week Comparisons of Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) Premiums (Δ) vs Kitco Spot Gold Price:

Date Shanghai Gold Exchange Close - Au(T+D) Kitco Spot Price at TSX Close SGE Δ
Yuan Renminbi/gram US$/oz
8 October 2015 234.15 $1146 $1140 $6
7 October 2015 Golden Week $1146 na
6 October 2015 Golden Week $1148 na
5 October 2015 Golden Week $1136 na
2 October 2015 Golden Week $1138 na
1 October 2015 Golden Week $1115 na
9 April 2015 238.54 $1196 $1194 $2
8 April 2015 241.82 $1213 $1203 $10
7 April 2015 241.30 $1211 $1210 $1
6 April 2015 Qing Ming Jie $1215 NA
3 April 2015 239.65 $1214 NA NA
2 April 2015 240.30 $1206 $1201 $5
9 October 2014 242.40 $1229 $1224 $5
8 October 2014 240.89 $1220 $1222 $2
7 October 2014 Golden Week $1210 NA
6 October 2014 Golden Week $1207 NA
3 October 2014 Golden Week $1214 NA
2 October 2014 Golden Week $1214 NA

Currency conversions made using spot rates available on the date. The SGE Δ is computed as the SGE closing price in US$ minus Kitco Spot Price (bid) at TSX Close.

A ? indicates that the closing data update is pending.

See the SGE page for daily updates on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, including a comparison of SGE gold delivery from vault in 2014 versus 2013.


Gold and Silver Miner Market Capitalization Estimates

TSX/TSXv Grouping TSX/TSXv Total Market Capitalization
(Millions of US$)
Gold & Silver Producers $63,230
Gold & Silver Streamers $13,009
Gold & Silver Developers $6,958
Gold & Silver Explorers $2,695
Total TSX/TSXv Gold & Silver Miners $85,892
Market Cap Estimate For the World's
Gold & Silver miners (Millions of US$)

Note: All TSX/TSXv companies with at least 12.5% of their total in situ metal value coming from either gold or silver and which match the category definitions, are included in the above table.

Gold & Silver Producers category includes those companies that report quarterly production counts and revenues for gold and/or silver production.

Gold & Silver Streamers category includes companies focused on creating gold/silver streams or royalty income flows.

Gold & Silver Developers category includes companies with an explicit plan to start production in the near term or which have a spending profile and work plans to imply potential future production.

Gold & Silver Explorers category includes companies that are primarily focused on expanding resource counts at one or more existing gold and silver projects without indicating plans for future production.

Generator and grass roots companies are not covered.

Market capitalization is always computed using closing market price (expressed in US$ using exchange rates in effact at market closing time) and the issued share of each company. Updates are made daily after the TSX market close.

TSX/TSXv Market Share Assumptions: the TSX/TSXv gold producers are estimated to represent approximately 33% of the world's gold producers since the TSX/TSXv gold producers report approximately 1/3 of the world's yearly gold production. The streamers, explorers and developers are estimated to represent very roughly 50% of the world total for companies in those groupings.

The Market Cap Estimate For the World's Gold & Silver miners is computed based on the actual TSX/TSXv market capitalizations, computed on a daily basis here using closing market prices and material filings as available at the TSX market closing time, and applying the market share assumptions detailed above.

Detailed fundamental metrics on the TSX/TSXv gold and silver miners, including per company details such as:

  • gold and silver reserves / resources breakdowns

  • enterprise value per ounce of gold reserve (or resource)

  • average ore value per tonne

  • breakdown of percentage of gold equivalent ounces by country (2 letter ISO codes)

  • options to fully customize report to your specific needs

are available on a subscription basis.

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