GoldMinerPulse: TSX/TSXv Gold Mining and Silver Mining Companies

Last Updated With Closing Market Prices and Document Filings from: 5 February 2016 (as available at TSX closing time).


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Outlook - 5 February 2016

The Chinese New Year and the week long Spring Festival Golden Week runs from 7th to the 13th of February. With the price of gold and GLG gold holdings sharply above the 6Q regression line, we have a classic setup for the start of a multi-month run down in the price of gold.

The bullish stance in the weekly Kitco survey, by both Main Street and Wall Street, for gold next week provides more supporting evidence that the end of the current gold run is very close - markets like it best when most participants are off side.

Sure, it is possible that this is the start of a new bull run in price of gold. But the gold price action over the last 6 quarters says otherwise. The charts on the right show that similar setups have occurred several times in the last years - e.g. October 2015 and January 2015.

Reviewing data from the 1970s, I put the odds at 16 in 20 that the gold down trend continues in 2016. See my Seeking Alpha Article links below for a detailed discussion.

 

Seeking Alpha Articles

 

Gold and Silver Miner Daily Update Counts

The following plot shows showing a per day count of gold/silver producers/develoeprs/explorers with one or more "metric impacting" Sedar updates (e.g. resource disclosurers, financials, shares for debt, private placements, options grants, project ownership changes, mergers/acquisitions, etc.).

Shanghai Gold Exchange, year to date gold deliveries from vault

Click on the thumb nail plot for a full page view. The trend line in the full page view clearly shows the TSX/TSXv gold/silver miner group filing activity is shrinking.

Note: the few days with zero updates were excluded.

   

Gold and Silver Production Statistics

Production Based on Last/Latest Four Quarters

Using the most recently available quarterly production reports, the gold and silver stocks listed on the TSX/TSXv are reporting production totals on a rolling 4 quarters of:

  • Gold: 25.59M ounces (877.37 tons or 795.94 tonnes), a 1.4% change over the 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.

  • Silver: 189.04M ounces (6,481.37 tons or 5,879.80 tonnes), a 2.7% change over the previous 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.

The running totals for quarterly production numbers for companies with a quarter ending in the months of October, November and December 2015, along with the changes on a Quarter on Quarter (QoQ) basis, for TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver producers are:

# Producers
Reporting
Gold Produced
Latest Q Report
QoQ
Gold Δ
Silver Produced
Latest Q Report
QoQ
Silver Δ
50 of 80 4,128,017 oz
 
141.5 tons
 
128.4 tonne
5% 26,142,834 oz
 
896 tons
 
813 tonne
3%

TSX/TSXv Gold Reserves and Resources

Gold reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from gold:

Metric

 
Type of Equity

Gold Reserves
(tons)

 

Gold Resources
(tons, inclusive of reserves)

 

Gold Producers

13901 35652

Gold Developers

4265 15667

Gold Explorers
>5M Oz AuEq

2090 7454

Gold Explorers
<5M Oz AuEq

87 5307

All Gold Equities

20342 64080

Based on gold production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv gold producers have 21.5 years of gold reserves.

 



TSX/TSXv Silver Reserves and Resources

Silver reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from silver:

Metric

 
Type of Equity

Silver Reserves
(tons)

 

Silver Resources
(tons, inclusive of reserves)

 

Silver Producers

124314 336053

Silver Developers

47376 200474

Silver Explorers
>5M Oz AuEq

6788 39952

Silver Explorers
<5M Oz AuEq

308 40445

All Silver Equities

178787 616926

Based on silver production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv silver producers have 33.6 years of reserves.

 

TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver Equities Statistics

The following table includes TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5 of their in situ metal values from gold or silver (in US$).

Type of Equity

 
Metric

Producers
 

 

Developers
 

 

Explorers
>5M Oz AuEq

 

Explorers
<5M Oz AuEq

 

Enterprise Value
Per Oz AuEq

$66 $9 $2 $7

Estimated Discovery Cost
Per Oz AuEq

  $14 $3 $23

Net Working Capital
(US$)

$17,092M $711M $195M $448M

TSX/TSXv Company Counts by Category

TSX/TSXv company may appear at most one time in the following table. Companies without a gold/silver resource (generators, historic and grass roots) are included on the basis of qualitative assessment of descriptions published in quarterly financial statements.

Category # of Companies in Category

Gold/Silver Streaming and Royalty Companies

6

Gold/Silver Producers

80

Gold/Silver Developers

134

Gold/Silver Explorers

217

Gold/Silver Generator Model Companies
(No Gold or Silver Resource)

25

Gold/Silver Grass Roots Explorers
(No Gold or Silver Resource)

781

Total Companies Listed in Sedar.com
(Current, historic, TSX/TSXv, CNDX, and others. See Note 1)

~30,000

Note 1: All TSX/TSXv listed companies are required to file in Sedar.com. However, Sedar.com companies include current companies, companies that no longer file (i.e. as a result of take over, merger, re-organization, bankruptcy, etc.), CNDX companies (Canadian over the counter market listings), and companies listed on foreign exchanges (e.g. US OTC, London, etc.) that have some connection with Canadian investors.

 

TSXv Gold And Silver Explorer/Developer Share Counts

Click on the chart for a detailed view.

 

Gold and Silver Miner Market Capitalization Estimates

TSX/TSXv Grouping TSX/TSXv Total Market Capitalization
(Millions of US$)
Gold & Silver Producers $66,337
Gold & Silver Streamers $14,185
Gold & Silver Developers $6,661
Gold & Silver Explorers $2,757
Total TSX/TSXv Gold & Silver Miners $89,939
 
Market Cap Estimate For the World's
Gold & Silver miners (Millions of US$)
$248,971

Note: All TSX/TSXv companies with at least 12.5% of their total in situ metal value coming from either gold or silver and which match the category definitions, are included in the above table.

Gold & Silver Producers category includes those companies that report quarterly production counts and revenues for gold and/or silver production.

Gold & Silver Streamers category includes companies focused on creating gold/silver streams or royalty income flows.

Gold & Silver Developers category includes companies with an explicit plan to start production in the near term or which have a spending profile and work plans to imply potential future production.

Gold & Silver Explorers category includes companies that are primarily focused on expanding resource counts at one or more existing gold and silver projects without indicating plans for future production.

Generator and grass roots companies are not covered.

Market capitalization is always computed using closing market price (expressed in US$ using exchange rates in effact at market closing time) and the issued share of each company. Updates are made daily after the TSX market close.

TSX/TSXv Market Share Assumptions: the TSX/TSXv gold producers are estimated to represent approximately 33% of the world's gold producers since the TSX/TSXv gold producers report approximately 1/3 of the world's yearly gold production. The streamers, explorers and developers are estimated to represent very roughly 50% of the world total for companies in those groupings.

The Market Cap Estimate For the World's Gold & Silver miners is computed based on the actual TSX/TSXv market capitalizations, computed on a daily basis here using closing market prices and Sedar.com material filings as available at the TSX market closing time, and applying the market share assumptions detailed above.

Detailed fundamental metrics on the TSX/TSXv gold and silver miners, including per company details such as:

  • gold and silver reserves / resources breakdowns

  • enterprise value per ounce of gold reserve (or resource)

  • average ore value per tonne

  • breakdown of percentage of gold equivalent ounces by country (2 letter ISO codes)

  • options to fully customize report to your specific needs

are available on a subscription basis.


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Gold Price Rolling Regression for Multipe Time Periods - Daily Updates

Click on the chart for a detailed view along with a full chart legend. Please see Outlook For Gold and Gold Equities in 2016 at Seeking Alpha for the details of my gold price linear regressions from 1990 (with back testing from 1970) and odds computation.

Multi-Quarter GLD Bullion Holdings Linear Regression

Click here for a scatter plot of GLD gold holdings versus price of gold.

 

Outlook For Gold and Gold Equities in 2016 - January 3rd View

To say predicting the price of gold is difficult is an understatement. However we say know with certainty that the price of gold in 2016 is going to do one of the following:

  • Down Trend Continues: The multi-year down trend from 2013 continues into 2016.

  • Up Trend Starts: It is not impossible for gold to take a sharp up turn in early 2016 and continuing rising into 2017.

  • Inflection Year - No Clear Trend: 2008 was an inflection point for the gold uptrend that ended in 2012. In 2009 the up trend continued.

    2012 was also an inflection year and a multi-year down trend formed in 2013.

Looking at gold price linear regressions from 1990, the odds for gold prices in 2016 can be summarized as (updated 11 Jan):

  • Most Probable 2016 Scenario: Gold Price Down trend Continues in 2016: Odds estimated a ~ 16 out of 20

  • Less Probable Scenario: Gold Price Has an Inflection in 2016: Odds estimated at ~ 2 out of 20

  • Least Probable Scenario - Gold Ends 2016 in a Solid Uptrend: Odds estimated at 2 out of 20

Please see Outlook For Gold and Gold Equities in 2016 at Seeking Alpha for the details of my gold price linear regressions from 1990 (with back testing from 1970) and odds computation.

Other Outlooks for 2016

The January 2, 2016 Barron's Gold Likely to Stay Tarnished in 2016 is supportive of the down trend continuing view and the article starts out with:

  • Weak demand and uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening is epxected to continue pressuring gold prices even lower this year, Barron's warns.
  • The 4:35AM PST version of the Barrons article also included the following quote at the end of the article:

    • "The Last commodities boon is over, and...the next remains a generation away," Deltec International Group writes in a research report. In fact, the price of the metal probably will fall as low as $800 an ounce next year, predicts Atul Lele, the fund's chief investment officer.

The legendary investor Mr. Rogers in December 2015 Kitco interviews continues to hold out for lower gold prices before moving holdings from the US$ to gold bullion.

The money flows out of the GLD ETF during 2015 does not indicate a turn in the price of gold. Rather, the money flow out the GLD mirrors the down trend in gold prices since 2013.

Until there is hard evidence in a reversal in the gold trend, the outlook has to remain negative.

View Friday Outlook for Gold Next Week for past weeks here.

 

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Gold ETFs and Shanghai Gold Exchange

GDX is by far the largest gold equity ETF today - 29 May 2015 net assets were $6.3B U.S., roughly equal to 2% of the estimated total market capitalization of all of the world's gold and silver miners (public + private). And with more than $27B US in physical gold holdings, the GLD ETF is equal to approximately 10% of that world gold and silver mining sector.

The monthly money flows for the GLD and GDX ETFs along with price of gold (POG) and Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) daily settlement volumes totals for the month are detailed below.

YYYY-MM Net Flow (US$) Average
Gold
Price
Avg POG
% Chg
SGE Avg.
Daily
Settlement
GLD GDX
See Gold Equity ETF Money Flows for per day flows over last month + definitions
 
2016-01 $952.8M $185.0M $1,097 2.6% 15.6 t
2015-12 $422.5M $42.6M $1,068 1.4% 12.5 t
2015-11 $1,327.0M $88.0M $1,084 6.4% 12.0 t
2015-10 $184.5M $469.8M $1,158 2.8% 9.7 t
2015-09 $173.1M $23.8M $1,126 0.6% 12.5 t
2015-08 $13.6M $23.8M $1,119 1.0% 16.3 t
2015-07 $1,319.4M $126.9M $1,130 4.3% 13.7 t
2015-06 $170.9M $362.5M $1,182 1.2% 12.0 t
2015-05 $912.6M $83.1M $1,197 0.2% 10.5 t
2015-04 $79.5M $558.9M $1,199 1.7% 13.4 t
2015-03 $1,302.2M $171.4M $1,179 3.8% 22.7 t
2015-02 $525.7M $351.6M $1,226 2.2% 22.9 t
2015-01 $1,559.7M $846.7M $1,254

4.5% 16.1 t
2014-12 $296.5M $522.3M $1,200

2.0% 12.1 t
2014-11 $834.5M $55.2M $1,177 3.7% 12.4 t
2014-10 $1,133.2M $247.0M $1,222

1.1% 12.8 t
2014-09 $925.4M $318.1M $1,236

4.6% 10.9 t
2014-08 $283.9M $104.4M $1,296

1.1% 9.7 t
2014-07 $399.3M $189.9M $1,311

2.3% 9.6 t
2014-06 $230.5M $504.2M $1,282

0.5% 11.5 t
2014-05 $456.8M $9.4M $1,288 0.8% 9.1 t
2014-04 $923.4M $53.2M $1,299

2.7% 9.7 t
2014-03 $411.2M $298.2M $1,335 2.7% 11.9 t
2014-02 $433.6M $59.4M $1,300

6.3% 15.2 t
2014-01 $58.6M $136.9M $1,223 1.5% 14.9 t
2013-12 $1,711.3M $109.9M $1,205

3.8% 9.3 t
2013-11 $1,165.3M $219.7M $1,252 5.0% 12.9 t
2013-10 $1,423.7M $6.8M $1,318

2.3% 12.0 t
2013-09 $569.2M $219.7M $1349 0.4% 11.9 t
2013-08 $240.2M $6.8M $1355

5.2% 8.7 t
2013-07 $1,601.8M $754.8M $1288 4.0% 5.0 t
2013-06 $1,848.0M $1,071.5M $1341

5.5% 13.3 t

Notes:

  • GLD ETF outflows for 2015 equaled $2,945.7M.

  • GDX ETF inflows for 2015 equaled $362.3M.

 

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Gold ETF Money Flows

Daily Price of Gold changes
Money Flows in/out of GLD, GDX and GDXJ
plus the SGE Premiums and Settlement volumes
mon-dd POG
% Chg
GLD GDX GDXJ SGE
Prem.
SGE
Sett.
Volume
Feb 08 ? ? ? ? NA NA

Feb 05 1.51% $179.0M $1.7M $8.7M $18 24.26t
Feb 04 1.14% $132.7M $145.8M $8.4M $9 13.53t
Feb 03 1.19% $162.3M $27.5M $17 6.74t
Feb 02 0.04% $150.9M $28.7M $2 7.96t
Feb 01 0.98% $441.9M $75.0M $4 13.04t

Jan 29 0.35% $36.9M $1 16.32t
Jan 28 1.01% $6.3M $3.8M $7 13.22t
Jan 27 0.33% $13.5M $4 16.48t
Jan 26 1.15% $181.2M $3 13.94t
Jan 25 1.00% $3 17.63t

Jan 22 0.47% $73.3M $8.5M $2 16.69t
Jan 21 0.07% $63.1M $4 22.68t
Jan 20 1.34% $84.3M $6.4M $3.5M $5 10.27t
Jan 19 0.17% $92.5M $5 10.59t
Jan 18 0.07% NA NA NA $5 9.03t

Jan 15 1.08% $135.7M $19.7M $5.4M $0 13.04t
Jan 14 1.55% $66.1M $3 10.66t
Jan 13 0.30% $83.3M $64.5M $9 13.56t
Jan 12 0.50% $21.8M $10 11.99t
Jan 11 0.86% $74M $35.5M $17 13.95t

Jan 8 0.48% $158.0M $3 20.67t
Jan 7 1.45% $148.0M $19.3M $29 18.77t
Jan 6 1.38% $49.1M $11 19.59t
Jan 5 0.36% $0 17.45t
Jan 4 1.38% $5 16.50t

Dec 31 0.03% $40.6M $9 18.41t
Dec 30 0.75% $15 21.87t
Dec 29 0.03% $27.9M $10 15.31t
Dec 28 0.72% $40.9M $8 6.13t

Dec 25 NA NA NA NA NA 11.05t
Dec 24 0.64% $40.9M $6.0M $1 4.13t
Dec 23 0.26% $8 10.14t
Dec 22 0.57% $8.7M $8 11.95t
Dec 21 1.18% $103.0M $48.4M $5.6M $5 8.75t

Dec 18 1.47% $640.2M $6.8M $21.7M $4 11.39t
Dec 17 2.18% $150.4M $20.0M $20 16.44t
Dec 16 1.21% $5 10.62t
Dec 15 0.28% $15.7M $7 13.32t
Dec 14 1.18% $13 13.94t

A ? indicates that the closing data for the ETF is to be released - ETF updates happen typically after 8PM EST. Otherwise the cell is left blank if there was no change from the previous day.

A X indicates the ETF did NOT release the end of day holdings -- a very rare event but Van Eck failed to release an update for GDXJ and GDX for August 26/27 (apparently due to a Bank of New York Mellon having an issue with its technological systems). As of August 31 GDX/GDXJ reporting appears to be back to normal.

POG % Chg is computed based on the Kitco gold spot price bid at TSX market closing time and the price at the previous TSX market close.

For GLD, a positive cell value indicated the value of the gold (in millions of dollars) added to the ETF while a negative cell value indicated the value of gold removed from the ETF. Values are computed from data provided by the GLD ETF operator.

For the gold equity ETF trading symbol columns, a positive cell value indicates the values of the equities (in millions of dollars) added to the ETF while a negative cell value (shown in red) indicates the value of the equities removed from the ETF.

The SGE Prem. (Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium) is computed as the difference between the SGE gold closing price (coverted at exchange rates in effect at the TSX close) and gold spot price as reported by Kitco at the TSX close. SGE Sett. (Shanghai Gold Exchange Settlement Volume) is sum of the Au(T+D) and mAu(T+D) daily settlement volumes as reported by the SGE.

 

Shanghai Gold Exchange Gold Closing Price Versus Kitco Closing Price

The Shanghai Gold Exchange Yuan Renminbi price of gold and premium/discount in US dollars relative to the Kitco spot price at TSX close follows (yearly average and 1 year rolling time period comparisons):

Note: See China Public Holiday Calendar for the dates of up coming Chinese holidays. For 2015, National Day holiday runs from 1 October to 7 October and is an important time for public gold purchases.

Yearly Average Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium:
  • 2016 (YTD average): $2.81

  • 2015 (Full year average): $2.17

  • 2014 (Full year average): $2.02

  • 2013 (Full year average): $14.94

Rolling Week on Week Comparisons of Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) Premiums (Δ) vs Kitco Spot Gold Price:

Date Shanghai Gold Exchange Close - Au(T+D) Kitco Spot Price at TSX Close SGE Δ
Yuan Renminbi/gram US$/oz
8 February 2016 NA NA ? NA
5 February 2016 243.91 $1156 $1173 $18
4 February 2016 241.80 $1146 $1155 $9
3 February 2016 238.10 $1125 $1142 $17
2 February 2016 238.35 $1127 $1129 $2
1 February 2016 237.90 $1125 $1129 $4
...
10 August 2015 219.67 $1100 $1103 $3
7 August 2015 218.95 $1097 $1092 $5
6 August 2015 217.37 $1088 $1089 $1
5 August 2015 217.47 $1094 $1085 $10
4 August 2015 217.82 $1091 $1088 $3
3 August 2015 219.10 $1088 $1086 $2
...
9 February 2015 249.54 $1242 $1241 $1
6 February 2015 255.83 $1270 $1235 $35
5 February 2015 253.61 $1262 $1267 $5
4 February 2015 254.42 $1256 $1264 $2
3 February 2015 254.42 $1282 $1261 $21
2 February 2015 257.32 $1278 $1275 $3

Currency conversions made using spot rates available on the date. The SGE Δ is computed as the SGE closing price in US$ minus Kitco Spot Price (bid) at TSX Close.

A ? indicates that the closing data update is pending.

See the SGE page for daily updates on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, including a comparison of SGE gold delivery from vault in 2014 versus 2013.

Outsource Your Gold Market Data Capture Tasks to GoldMinerPulse

Contact dennis@goldminerpulse.com to request a free no obligation evaluation copy of a TSX/TSXv gold/silver miner daily, weekly and monthly reports and private view web pages. I will be happy to work with you to design a product that matches your exact information capture and processing needs.

If you are using in house staff to maintain such metrics then you should consider the advantages of outsourcing this task to the GoldMinerPulse team which can prepare custom reports using XML, Excel spreadsheets and/or private access PHP pages.

 

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