Last Updated With Closing Market Prices and Document Filings from: 6 May 2015 (as available at TSX closing time).
Any investor in the resource companies in general and TSXV miners in particular should review the excellent material provided by US Global Investors in a recent report titled: MANAGING EXPECTATIONS: Anticipate Before You Participate in the Market. Highlights include:
Oscillators, Standard Deviation and Mean Reversion as a model for understanding the mining sector.
Patterns in Trading which includes Intraday Market Performance of the TSX Venture Exchange a chart you should review before your next buy/sell of a TSXv stock.
Visit U.S. Global Investors and sign-up for weekly Investor Alerts and learn how to follow the money.
The 2014 update to the Periodic Table of Commodity Returns (Pd was #1 while Au was #5) is available here.
Use the form below to visually inspect the correlation between the closing market prices of TSX/TSXv gold/silver equities and spot market prices for gold and/or silver and/or copper.
Feedback from one of the 1st users (beta 001):
To quote the cop in Superbad, that metric is ''superbadass!''. And fun.
Since we come to the junior producer field looking for correlation, this is definately right up a stock pickers alley. Definately a home run. ...
NOTE: Newmont Gold (NEM on the NYSE), which did at one time trade on the TSX and which still files reports via Sedar.com, is not technically a TSX/TSXv gold producer and was therefore removed from GoldMinerPulse statistics effective 6 March 2015. Previously the NEM statistics were incorrectly counted as part of the TSX/TSXv totals.
Using the most recently available quarterly production reports, the gold and silver stocks listed on the TSX/TSXv are reporting production totals on a rolling 4 quarters of:
Gold: 25.33M ounces (868.46 tons or 787.85 tonnes), a 1.7% change over the 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.
Silver: 182.9M ounces (6,270.86 tons or 5,688.83 tonnes), a 2.3% change over the previous 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.
The running totals for quarterly production numbers for companies with a quarter ending in the months of January, February and March 2015, along with the changes on a Quarter on Quarter (QoQ) basis, for TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver producers are:
Latest Q Report
Latest Q Report
|54 of 87||4,938,000 oz
Gold reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from gold:
All Gold Equities
Based on gold production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv gold producers have 21.5 years of gold reserves.
Silver reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from silver:
All Silver Equities
Based on silver production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv silver producers have 33.6 years of reserves.
The following table includes TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5 of their in situ metal values from gold or silver (in US$).
Type of Equity
Estimated Discovery Cost
Net Working Capital
TSX/TSXv company may appear at most one time in the following table. Companies without a gold/silver resource (generators, historic and grass roots) are included on the basis of qualitative assessment of descriptions published in quarterly financial statements.
|Category||# of Companies in Category|
Gold/Silver Streaming and Royalty Companies
Gold/Silver Generator Model Companies
Gold/Silver Explorers with Historic Resource
Gold/Silver Grass Roots Explorers
Total Companies Listed in Sedar.com
Note 1: All TSX/TSXv listed companies are required to file in Sedar.com. However, Sedar.com companies include current companies, companies that no longer file (i.e. as a result of take over, merger, re-organization, bankruptcy, etc.), CNDX companies (Canadian over the counter market listings), and companies listed on foreign exchanges (e.g. US OTC, London, etc.) that have some connection with Canadian investors.
ETF and stock picking group returns and profiles are unavailable while we do some site upgrades. Expected return t.b.d. base on visitor feedback.
The multi week down trend in gold remains in place. The odds for an upside break out have diminished further with another week that ended in a sell-off in gold after some upside testing. Gold equity holders remain decidely bullish but outflows from the GDX gold equity ETF was greater than $150M. The potential for a further drop in gold price is not supported by the Shanghai Gold Exchange daily settlement volume on futures contracts which I believe is due to shortages in physical gold for delivery into the pipeline feeding the Asian markets (I would love to see the Friday GOFO rates but these unfortunately are no longer published).
The GDX Visual Correlation chart shows that market cap weighted average of the GDX Producers on the TSX (dashed black line) remaining sharply above gold suggesting a positive expectation maybe be over anticipated in the week end equity prices. In other words, it would appear that the buyers/sellers of gold equities and gold equity ETFs are expecting a sharp recovery in the price of gold in the week ending 8 May.
On the other hand, GDX, the largest gold equity ETF, showed an outflow of more than US$181M for the week, a weekly outflow high for 2015 and equal to the outflows in December 2014 when gold and equities made significant lows.
The Shanghai physical delivery from vault for the week ending 24 April (reporting is always on a one week delay basis) was 782 tonnes YTD, a 16.7% increase over the comparable 2014 YTD figures.
Daily settlement volumes are off sharply from the Q1 pace (April daily settlement suggest that physical gold may be an issue -- in prior years, times of negative GOFO rates (short supply of physical gold for near term delivery) often led to a drop off in SGE daily settlement volumes. That appears to be happening now but this is just an estimate given that GOFO rates apparently are no longer published on the web.
Gold priced in Yuan Renminbi remains in a down trend based on current week, 6 month and 1 year view although the 1 week rates are slightly above the 6 months rates, suggesting a base may be forming.
Agnico Eagle has fully corrected the 11 February 2015 LaRonde base metal reserve disclosure error with the 1 May 2015 Q1 results report, which in addition to correction of the LaRonde base metal reserves also include record gold production numbers for Q1/2015. I believe that any impact of the 11 February disclosure error will be fully absorbed by the market by the Q2/2015 production results are released -- will Agnico Eagle Q2 match/exceed the Q1 results?
On balance, the gold down trend remains in place, after upside break out tests in prior weeks failed. However further upside break tests can be expected as there is limited downside pressure on gold due to what I believe are tight supply conditions for physical gold for delivery into the Asian market.
Based on available evidence discussed above I expect the down trend to remain in place through next week with prices movements to trend sideways while awaiting unexpected news events that will finally defined the next major trend move.
View Friday Outlook for Gold Next Week for past Friday outlooks.
The Agnico Eagle 1 May news release on Q1 production included a full and clear correction of the 11 February 2015 LaRonde base metal disclosure error. I will be updating my blog, LaRonde Base Metal Disclosure Error over the next quarter to see if any useful observations can be made from the LaRonde disclosure error. While the Q1/15 AEM production numbers were very good, I want to see if the trend continues into Q2 before making any final conclusion as to whether or not the 11 February disclosure error had an appreciable impact on AEM price action.
Dollars flowing into or inflow to an ETF means the ETF is increasing its holdings of shares. Likewise an outflow denotes when the ETF is reducing its holdings of shares. Inflow and outflow is computed using the share counts (or total ETF unit counts) from current day, closing share price on current day and share count (or total ETF unit counts) from prior day.Updates are applied at the end of each trading day if the GDX or GDXJ had an inflow or outflow - no update means no change in share holdings occurred for either GDX or GDXJ. The BMO ZJG.TO ETF and the Sprott SGDM / SGDJ ETFs are made later in the day as data becomes available.
5 May - Outflow from GDX was -$16.2M. GDXJ, ZJG.TO, SGDM and SGDJ were unchanged.
4 May - Outflow from GDX was -$84.8M. GDXJ, ZJG.TO, SGDM and SGDJ were unchanged.
1 May - Outflow from GDX was -$14.2M. Outflow from GDXJ was -$15.0M. ZJG.TO, SGDM and SGDJ were unchanged.
30 April - Outflow from GDX was -$47.4M. Outflow from GDX was -$15.1M. ZJG.TO and SGDM were unchanged. SGDJ added $2.6M.
29 April - Outflow from GDX was -$78.0M. GDXJ was unchanged. Outflow from SGDM was -$2.8M. ZJG.TO was unchanged.
28 April - GDX was unchanged. Outflow from GDXJ was -$5.2M. SGDM and ZJG.TO were unchanged.
27 April - Outflow from GDX was -$41.6M. Outflow from GDXJ was -$28.7M. Outflow from SGDM was -$0.9M. ZJG.TO was unchanged.
24 April - Outflow from GDX was -$11.7M. GDXJ was unchanged.
23 April - GDX was unchanged. Outflow from GDXJ was -$1.2M. ZJG.TO, SGDM and SGDJ were unchanged.
22 April - outflow from GDX was -$11.6M. ZJG.TO, SGDM and GDXJ were unchanged. SGDJ had an inflow of $3.8M.
21 April - GDX was unchanged. GDXJ outflow was -$26.3M. ZGJ.TO outflow was -$0.6M.
20 April - outflow from GDX was -$44.6M. GDXJ inflow as $7.5M.
17 April - outflow from GDX was -$43.5M. GDXJ and SGDM were unchanged.
15 April - outflow from GDX was -$99.8M. GDXJ and SGDM were unchanged.
14 April - outflow from GDX was -$19.4M. GDXJ was unchanged. Outflow from SGDM was -$2.6M.
13 April - outflow from GDX was -$27.9M. GDXJ was unchanged. Outflow from SGDM was -$3.5M.
10 April - outflow from GDX was
9 April - outflow from GDX was -$88.1M, relative to 7 April 2015 ( 8 April GDX snapshot was incompleted). GDXJ and SGDM were unchanged.
6 April - outflow from GDX was -$29.5M. GDXJ and SGDM were unchanged.
2 April - inflow to the GDX was $2.8M while outflow from the GDXJ was -$27.8M. SGDM and the newly launched SGDJ were unchanged.
31 March - outflow from GDX was -$67.7M. GDXJ gained $11.4M. SGDM lost -$0.8M since March 27.
30 March - outflow from GDX was -$14.9M. GDXJ was unchanged.
27 March - outflow from GDX was -$51.7M. GDXJ and SGDM were unchanged.
26 March - outflow from GDX was -$14.1M. GDXJ and SGDM were unchanged.
25 March - inflow into GDX was $7.8M, SGDM outflow was -$3.6M and GDXJ was unchanged.
Seabridge Gold (SEA CN, SA), a dynamic, well-funded company active in Northern British Columbia, is the only gold explorer/developer included in both the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) and the newly-launched Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM). The Seabridge KSM project has received final approval of its Environmental Assessment Application and is only the second large-scale mining project in Canada to receive federal approval in the past five years - see Why KSM Makes Sense. Also see Seabridge Gold Inc. Project Summary and Seabridge Gold home page for more.
|TSX/TSXv Grouping||TSX/TSXv Total Market Capitalization
(Millions of US$)
|Gold & Silver Producers||$79,412|
|Gold & Silver Streamers||$20,044|
|Gold & Silver Developers||$7,710|
|Gold & Silver Explorers||$2,670|
|Total TSX/TSXv Gold & Silver Miners||$109,836|
|Market Cap Estimate For the World's
Gold & Silver miners (Millions of US$)
Note: All TSX/TSXv companies with at least 12.5% of their total in situ metal value coming from either gold or silver and which match the category definitions, are included in the above table.
Gold & Silver Producers category includes those companies that report quarterly production counts and revenues for gold and/or silver production.
Gold & Silver Streamers category includes companies focused on creating gold/silver streams or royalty income flows.
Gold & Silver Developers category includes companies with an explicit plan to start production in the near term or which have a spending profile and work plans to imply potential future production.
Gold & Silver Explorers category includes companies that are primarily focused on expanding resource counts at one or more existing gold and silver projects without indicating plans for future production.
Generator and grass roots companies are not covered.
Market capitalization is always computed using closing market price (expressed in US$ using exchange rates in effact at market closing time) and the issued share of each company. Updates are made daily after the TSX market close.
TSX/TSXv Market Share Assumptions: the TSX/TSXv gold producers are estimated to represent approximately 33% of the world's gold producers since the TSX/TSXv gold producers report approximately 1/3 of the world's yearly gold production. The streamers, explorers and developers are estimated to represent very roughly 50% of the world total for companies in those groupings.
The Market Cap Estimate For the World's Gold & Silver miners is computed based on the actual TSX/TSXv market capitalizations, computed on a daily basis here using closing market prices and Sedar.com material filings as available at the TSX market closing time, and applying the market share assumptions detailed above.
Detailed fundamental metrics on the TSX/TSXv gold and silver miners, including per company details such as:
gold and silver reserves / resources breakdowns
enterprise value per ounce of gold reserve (or resource)
average ore value per tonne
breakdown of percentage of gold equivalent ounces by country (2 letter ISO codes)
options to fully customize report to your specific needs
are available on a subscription basis. Contact firstname.lastname@example.org to request a free no obligation evaluation copy of a TSX/TSXv gold/silver miner monthly report.
If you are using in house staff to maintain such metrics then you should consider the advantages of outsourcing this task to the GoldMinerPulse team which can prepare custom reports using XML, Excel spreadsheets and/or private access PHP pages.
Per the LBMA website, all GOFO data was discontinued as of 30 January 2015. The LBMA website references www.trioptima.com and provides contacts into this organization on the Discontinuation of GOFO transition information page. Thanks in advance to anyone who can provide a good overview blog on the LBMA to trioptima transition.
The Shanghai Gold Exchange Yuan Renminbi price of gold and premium/discount in US dollars relative to the Kitco spot price at TSX close follows (yearly average and 1 year rolling time period comparisons):
Note: See China Public Holiday Calendar for the dates of up coming Chinese holidays.Yearly Average Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium:
2015 (YTD average): $4.06
2014 (Full year average): $2.02
2013 (Full year average): $14.94
|Date||Shanghai Gold Exchange Close - Au(T+D)||Kitco Spot Price at TSX Close||SGE Δ|
|6 May 2015||238.39||$1196||$1192||$4|
|5 Msy 2015||237.54||$1190||$1193||-$3|
|4 May 2015||236.79||$1187||$1189||-$3|
|1 May 2015||May Day Holiday||$1178||n/a|
|30 April 2015||239.86||$1203||$1183||$20|
|29 April 2015||241.24||$1210||$1205||$5|
|5 November 2014||225.68||$1148||$1142||$7|
|4 November 2014||229.29||$1166||$1167||-$1|
|3 November 2014||230.67||$1173||$1167||$6|
|31 October 2014||230.30||$1171||$1172||-$0|
|30 October 2014||230.20||$1207||$1198||$9|
|29 October 2014||241.87||$1231||$1211||$20|
|7 May 2014||262.72||$1311||$1290||$21|
|6 May 2014||263.02||$1314||$1308||$6|
|5 May 2014||262.79||$1309||$1311||-$2|
|2 May 2014||May Day||$1299||na|
|1 May 2014||May Day||$1285||na|
|30 April 2014||260.24||$1293||$1291||$2|
Currency conversions made using spot rates available on the date. The SGE Δ is computed as the SGE closing price in US$ minus Kitco Spot Price (bid) at TSX Close.
See the SGE page for daily updates on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, including a comparison of SGE gold delivery from vault in 2014 versus 2013.
See schedule of holidays in China in 2015 for dates the SGE will be closed. 2 January was the New Year's weekend holiday. The next holiday will be Spring Festival Eve and Chinese New Year holidays started 18 February and ending 24 February.
Select Wednesday's news headlines from the 1,903 mining stocks (producers, developers, explorers, base metal producers plus a few of the capital pool companies) GoldMinerPulse tracks:
View more of Wednesday's news headlines here. Our news headlines update each TSX/TSXv trading day, typically mid morning and then several times during the trading day.