Last Updated With Closing Market Prices and Document Filings from: 24 October 2014 (as available at TSX closing time).
Feedback from one of the 1st users:
To quote the cop in Superbad, that metric is ''superbadass!''. And fun.
Since we come to the junior producer field looking for correlation, this is definately right up a stock pickers alley. Definately a home run. ...
The average returns from investments in one of three gold equity ETFs versus returns from purchases of gold or silver bullion versus the return from stock picking strategies are compared below:
|Average Returns: 24 October 2014|
| • average return assumes buy and hold on
1, 3, 7, 11, 17, 23, 31 & 41 prior TSX trading days.
|group||average % return|
|Oracle: Best 20||4.9|
|Stock Picks: MVG||-8.5|
|Stock Picks: S1||-9.6|
|Stock Picks: S3||-10.8|
|Stock Picks: S2||-10.9|
|Oracle: Worst 20||-21.3|
Stock Picks: MVG (Max Value Group), Stock Picks: S1, Stock Picks: S2 and Stock Picks: S3 are rule based selection strategies for picking TSX/TSXv gold/silver producers. The design objective for each of the Stock Picks groups is to generate better returns than the gold equity ETFs when the price of gold is rising while providing returns roughly on par with (or only slightly worst) in a flat or falling gold market.
The MVG membership list, and related rankings of the TSX/TSXv gold and silver producers used to compute the MVG, can be computed using the algorithm described within or alternatively the MGV list and related rankings can also be purchased pre-computed from GoldMinerPulse on a daily, monthly or quarterly basis (see Contact to learn more).
The Stock Picks: S1, Stock Picks: S2 and Stock Picks: S3 Stock Picks are alternate stock picking strategies under current investigation - the S1, S2 and S3 strategies can be easily implemented for independent back testing. Complete details, including access to more back testing results, are available on a subscription basis.
The Oracle: Best 20 is an upper bound on the possible returns from a stock picking strategy, but since the Oracle stock picking strategies relies on a look ahead cheat (i.e. seeing the closing prices on the 2014-10-24 when making the original buy decisions), it is not implementable. The Oracle: Best 20 does however provide an upper bound benchmark against which to test stock picking strategies -- the gap between the MVG and ETF returns versus the Oracle: Best 20 suggests a better stock picking strategy potentially remains to be discovered.
|Percentage return for each investment choice assuming:
• buy at the close on the buy dates listed below
• sell at the close on 24 October 2014.
|group / buy date||26 Aug.||10 Sep.||22 Sep.||30 Sep.||8 Oct.||15 Oct.||21 Oct.||23 Oct.|
|Oracle: Best 20||-5.8||-2.6||10.6||11.6||7.3||9.2||3.3||5.4|
|Stock Picks: MVG||-22.1||-19.6||-10.0||-6.9||-2.9||-1.4||-3.6||-1.3|
|Stock Picks: S1||-25.0||-17.5||-8.5||-5.5||-8.1||-6.6||-4.7||-0.7|
|Stock Picks: S3||-26.3||-18.2||-9.8||-7.4||-9.2||-8.4||-5.3||-1.4|
|Stock Picks: S2||-25.6||-17.4||-9.1||-9.1||-9.8||-7.7||-6.5||-2.1|
|Oracle: Worst 20||-39.8||-34.1||-26.6||-20.9||-19.6||-14.0||-9.9||-5.2|
The percentage returns, which assume a purchase at the close of each buy date and a sale at the close of the 2014-10-24, are highligthed as follows:
|Group with the best return for the buy date.|
|Group with the 2nd best return for the buy date.|
The table rows are sorted by the arithmetic average of the percentage returns realized for each of the buy dates. The table rows are ordered from highest average percentage return to the lowest.
The percentage return tables are updated after the close of each TSX trading day. Group member is always computed prior to the start of each trading day. On a day to day basis, changes in the Oracle groups are common. Membership in any of the Stock Picks groups may also vary over time but by design the MVG group changes typically occur on a time frame matching the flow of new financial and technical reports from the producers (typically quarterly). The other Stock Picks group members are expected to vary even less frequently.
Stock Picks: MVG, an equally weighted grouping of TSX/TSX producers, is constructed using rule-based stock picking strategy. For more details please see:
Rankings for a description cost and benefit metrics we use to rank TSX/TSXv gold and silver producers.
Max Value Group of TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver Producers Criteria for the rules used to construct the Max Value Group before trading begins on each buy date.
Profiles for the 2014-10-24 version of the cost and benefit metric rankings of various equally weighted groups of TSX/TSXv gold and silver producers, including the Max Value Group.
The Stock Picks: S1, Stock Picks: S2 and Stock Picks: S3 Stock Picks are alternate stock picking strategies under current investigation. Complete details, including access to more back testing results and alternate selection strategies, are available on a subscription basis.
The Oracle groups, created by using a look ahead cheat designed to select the best (or worst) possible returns from buying and holding an equally weighted group of TSX/TSXv gold/silver producers, are excluded from highlighting.
The ETF groups assume you buy and hold the actual ETF. The Physical groups assume you are buying/selling gold (or silver) bullion at the spot market price at the TSX market closeing time.
In a rising gold market, the gold equity ETFs provide a significantly better return than the returns on physical gold or silver. However, the best returns can be expected from the application of stock picking strategies. This page now provides live testing of 4 alternate stock picking strategies (Stock Picks: MVG, Stock Picks: S1, Stock Picks: S2 and Stock Picks: S3). Currently, the Stock Pick strategies are limited to TSX/TSXv producers. Access to full details on back testing results from various stock picking strategies is available to monthly / quarterly subscribers (customized per subscriber).
Although no buy and hold stock picking strategy can better or even equal the outstanding returns for the Oracle: Best 20, the Oracle: Best 20 does provide a hard upper bound against which to benchmark returns from an implementable stock picking strategy.
In a flat gold market, the performance difference between the stock picking strategies (the Stock Picks: groups) and gold equity ETFs is expected to narrow.
In a falling gold market, holding physical gold/silver is expected to loose the least of the various groups presented while the ETFs and stock picking strategies can be expected to yield the poorest returns.
Since holding gold/silver bullion investments in a falling market are, by definition, going to loose money, an overall gold/silver investment strategy to maximizing returns overall markets to consider is:
increasing investment weighting in Stock Picks as the price of gold rises,
move investments from Stock Picks to physical gold/silver as the price of gold becomes range bound, and
move into and stay in cash as the price of gold is falling.
GoldMinerPulse does NOT offer any investment advise. Rather, all discussions here of investment strategies are made to introduce GoldMinerPulse services - GoldMinerPulse provides actionable data to investment professionals to support their investment and trading strategies (see Contact for more details). The Stock Picks: MVG, S1, S2 and S3 are concrete example of the kinds of actionable information that can be built from value based metrics available from GoldMinerPulse.
Using the most recently available quarterly production reports, the gold and silver stocks listed on the TSX/TSXv are reporting production totals on a rolling 4 quarters of:
Gold: 29.52M ounces (1,012.11 tons or 918.17 tonnes), a 0% change over the 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.
Silver: 167.32M ounces (5,736.69 tons or 5,204.23 tonnes), a 5.8% change over the previous 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.
The running totals for quarterly production numbers for companies with a quarter ending in the months of July, August and September 2014, along with the changes on a Quarter on Quarter (QoQ) basis, for TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver producers are:
Latest Q Report
Latest Q Report
|41 of 86||1,176,462 oz
Gold reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from gold:
All Gold Equities
Based on gold production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv gold producers have 21.5 years of gold reserves.
Silver reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from silver:
All Silver Equities
Based on silver production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv silver producers have 33.6 years of reserves.
The following table includes TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5 of their in situ metal values from gold or silver (in US$).
Type of Equity
Estimated Discovery Cost
Net Working Capital
TSX/TSXv company may appear at most one time in the following table. Companies without a gold/silver resource (generators, historic and grass roots) are included on the basis of qualitative assessment of descriptions published in quarterly financial statements.
|Category||# of Companies in Category|
Gold/Silver Streaming and Royalty Companies
Gold/Silver Generator Model Companies
Gold/Silver Explorers with Historic Resource
Gold/Silver Grass Roots Explorers
Total Companies Listed in Sedar.com
Note 1: All TSX/TSXv listed companies are required to file in Sedar.com. However, Sedar.com companies include current companies, companies that no longer file (i.e. as a result of take over, merger, re-organization, bankruptcy, etc.), CNDX companies (Canadian over the counter market listings), and companies listed on foreign exchanges (e.g. US OTC, London, etc.) that have some connection with Canadian investors.
23 October - Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) increased holdings in TSX miners by $12.7M. GDXJ remained unchanged.
22 October - Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) increased holdings in TSX miners by $25.3M. GDXJ remained unchanged.
17 October - Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) increased holdings in TSX miners by $26.3M.
16 October - Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) increased holdings in TSX miners by $5.7M.
14 October - Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) increased holdings in TSX miners by $33M.
10 October - Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) reduced holdings in TSX miners by $4.7M. This was the first outflow from the GDXJ since 23 September.
8 October - Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) added $27.4M of TSX miners to holdings while Market Vectors Junior Gold (GDXJ) added $5M.
7 October - Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) added 18.8M shares of B2Gold Corp. (BTO CN). Other holdings remained unchanged.
2 October - Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) increased TSX share holdings by $6.3M and Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) increased TSX share holdings by $9.5M.
Note: On 22 September Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) added a Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) holding as its 4th largest position.
Seabridge Gold (SEA CN, SA), a dynamic, well-funded company active in Northern British Columbia, is the only gold explorer/developer included in both the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) and the newly-launched Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM). Visit Seabridge Gold Inc. Project Summary for the latest company headlines and resource metrics.
On 30 September, the last day of LBMA trading before the start of the Chinese Golden Week holiday, the LBMA 1 month GOFO rate (Gold Forward Offered Rate) was at 0.12750. On 8 October, the first day of trading after the Golden Week, the LBMA 1 month GOFO rate dropped to 0.0550.
On 24 October the 1 mth GOFO had fallen to 0.0200 down from 0.0725 and 0.1000 on the previous two days. As of 24 October, the average 1 month GOFO rate was 0.0376 for the year.
A rising GOFO rate is an indicator of adequate supply to meet physical gold delivery, which is believed to be largely to Shanghai via Swiss refiners. The Shanghai weekly gold delivery from vault (Oct17/14, latest available data point), showed 2014 YTD deliveries, while improving over last month, continue to lag 2013 YTD deliveries by -11.6% (see SGE Gold Delivery From Vaults).
The Shanghai Gold Exchange Yuan Renminbi price of gold and premium/discount in US dollars relative to the Kitco spot price at TSX close follows (yearly average and 1 year rolling time period comparisons):
2014 (YTD average): $3.11
2013 (Full year average): $16.05
|Date||Shanghai Gold Exchange Close - Au(T+D)||Kitco Spot Price at TSX Close||SGE Δ|
|23 October 2014||242.55||$1235||$1231||$3|
|22 October 2014||245.62||$1249||$1242||$7|
|21 October 2014||246.50||$1252||$1248||$4|
|20 October 2014||244.64||$1242||1246||-$4|
|17 October 2014||244.60||$1242||$1238||$4|
|16 October 2014||244.37||$1242||$1240||$2|
|25 April 2014||259.63||$1291||$1303||-$11|
|24 April 2014||257.77||$1283||$1293||-$10|
|23 April 2014||257.85||$1286||$1285||$1|
|22 April 2014||258.46||$1289||$1285||$4|
|21 April 2014||257.70||$1283||$1290||-$6|
|17 April 2014||259.37||$1297||$1295||$2|
|25 October 2013||262.82||$1343||$1353||-$9|
|24 October 2013||262.41||$1342||$1347||-$5|
|23 October 2013||262.39||$1342||$1334||$7|
|22 October 2013||259.41||$1330||$1342||-$12|
|21 October 2013||260.47||$1330||$1317||$13|
|18 October 2013||259.80||$1325||$1315||$10|
Currency conversions made using spot rates available on the date. The SGE Δ is computed as the SGE closing price in US$ minus Kitco Spot Price (bid) at TSX Close.
See the SGE page for daily updates on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, including a comparison of SGE gold delivery from vault in 2014 versus 2014.
Also see China Looking To Dominate Gold Market With International Shanghai Gold Exchange, a 27 June 2014 Kitco News story.
Select Friday's news headlines from the 1,349 mining stocks (producers, developers, explorers, base metal producers plus a few of the capital pool companies) GoldMinerPulse tracks:
View more of Friday's news headlines here. Our news headlines update each TSX/TSXv trading day, typically mid morning and then several times during the trading day.
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