GoldMinerPulse: TSX/TSXv Gold Mining and Silver Mining Companies

Last Updated With Closing Market Prices and Document Filings from: 24 March 2017 (as available at TSX closing time).


 

Gold Outlook Going into Week of March 20th (Prepared Mar19/17)

March 24 update: The Kitco Main Street and Wall Streeters got it right. Outlook for week of March 27th to be posted on March 26th.


March 23 update: GLD ETF bullion holdings were unchanged. Other trends relatively unchanged from yesterday. Waiting for signal on likely direction of next gold price move. See GLD ETF for recent flows.


March 22 update: GLD ETF bullion holdings were unchanged. DXY stablized and SGE gold premium is back to double digits.


March 21 update: GLD ETF added 4.156t ($165.7MM), first rise after 3 drops.

The Shanghai Gold Exchange premium dropped to $1 from low $20s a few days ago.

The DXY vs gold is falling back towards its 6Q trend - see LBMA Gold Close Correlation with DXY New York Close. A drop of several more percent in DXY combined with an unchanged gold price would put this DXY and gold back on trend. However, a drop in gold price with a steady DXY also works to get back to trend.

The 1 month (1M) gold price trend and the DXY trends are both negative. Generally, the DXY and gold price have opposite trends. A bounce in DXY could easily take the DXY 1M trend back to positive (and opposite gold price trend).

At this point, it appears that a rise in GLD bullion holdings combined with the falling US dollar as evidenced by the DXY, makes it more likely that Main Street and Wall Street will be on the money for the week with gold more likely to deliver an up week as not. Watch for a bounce in the DXY and the next SGE day's gold trading.


March 20 update: GLD dropped 3.85t ($152.6M), a third drop in as many days - outlook for week remains unchanged. See GLD ETF for recent flows.


The weekly Kitco survey is the big story going into the week. Both Wall Street and Main Street are as bullish has they have been in a while. A contrary opinion (i.e. expect gold prices to fall) may be in order and win the week.

The LBMA PM gold close correlation with gold held in the GLD ETF is spot on trend as of March 17th and offers few clues. A gold price move up the trend line or down the trend line is equally likely based on this chart.

The GoldMinerPulse Rolling 6Q/3Q/1Q/1M regression chart remains largely unchanged with the 6Q weakly positive, the 1Q strongly positive while the 3Q/1M are strongly negative.

The DXY 6Q/3Q/1Q/1M is a new chart I've added. As expected the 3Q/1Q DXY trends are strongly negative (DXY and gold price have a long term negative correlation) and as expected are opposite to the gold trend lines over the same periods (-0.77 and +0.81 for gold versus 0.85 and -0.48 for DXY).

The 6Q trend lines are however interesting - both gold and DXY have a positive 6Q trend, 0.46 versus 0.47 as of March 17th close. Given the standing wisdom that gold and the dollar move in opposite directions, a correction is gold price or DXY can be reasonably expected. Timing is however impossible to predict from just trend lines. Most likely, there is a Trump effect at play since the 6Q trend lines include much data where the market did NOT expect a Donald Trump to be POTUS.

Shanghai Gold Exchange price premiums relative to North American spot prices were reduced at the end of the week falling to low teens. A larger divergence between SGE and NA gold prices was typical of the past few month but was not typical of the past year where price difference averaged out to a few dollars of full years.

In my opinion, the GLD Bullion Holdings 6Q/3Q/1Q/1M is telling. After a strong inflows of more than 12 tonnes earlier in the week, the week ended with more than 5 tonnes outflow over Thursday and Friday. I believe odds favor a continued decrease in GLD Bullion holdings and correspondingly lower gold and gold equity prices going into next week. The GLD can flip-flop many times before starting one it is typical long term runs. So, I will be watching the GLD flows and providing updates on developments through out the week in an attempt to get an early read on whether the next major move in gold is up or down. Please check back.




High Value Tips

Frank Holmes - March 24, 2017 Will This Gold Rally Last? Frank Holmes Comments

Frank Holmes - March 17, 2017 America's New Emphasis on Fiscal Policy




Data Exploration Tools

Caution: These single page TSX gold miner data exploration tools are in alpha release. Documentation is very poor. Focus to date has been on data cleaning and will continue to be on data cleaning. First pass verification of Producer data has been completed from January 2013 and from July 2013 for Explorer/Developers.

Please see SUBMIT under the help page for a resolution of the previously reported returns calcuation error.

TSX/TSXv Gold Producer - Rankings Based on Fundamental Metrics

A mobile friendly alpha release of the a TSX/TSXv gold producer single page application is now available for review at here. Use this tool to:

  • Order TSX/TSXv gold producers using fundamental metrics:

    • auoz - in situ gold ounces (resources inclusive of reserves)

    • auv - in situ gold value divided by issued shares divided by share closing price

    • grd - in situ gold grade

    • evoz - enterprise value per ounce of in situ gold

    • aup - gold production per share

    • auvp - gold production per share divided by share price

    • atv - average trade value over last 5 days

  • Use LIMIT at the top of the app to adjust the number of companies in the list. Averages returns for each metric are computed based on the LIMIT for each metric and shown with a quartile color scheme. Click on a metric to show the companies in that list that generated to average return. The list of companies is always relative to highlighted column.

    Set the LIMIT to the maximum value in the drop down to show all companies. 25 companies ofter provides the best return over a given time period.

  • Use the Reference date to set the date from which returns over Jump trading xx days is computed. If a stock does not have a closing price xx days after the Reference date then it is excluded from average computation.

  • Companies have at least 250K ounces of in situ gold and at least 12% of the their in situ metal value from gold. Other preset filter details to be documented in a future alpha release.

  • All comments, questions and suggests are welcome - please e-mail: dennis@goldminerpulse.com

TSX/TSXv Gold Explorer / Developer - Rankings Based on Fundamental Metrics

A mobile friendly alpha release of the a TSX/TSXv gold explorer/developer single page application is now available for review at here. Use this tool to:

  • Order TSX/TSXv gold explorer/developers using fundamental metrics:

    • auoz - in situ gold ounces (resources inclusive of reserves)

    • auv - in situ gold value divided by issued shares divided by share closing price

    • grd - in situ gold grade

    • evoz - enterprise value per ounce of in situ gold

    • atv - average trade value over last 5 days

  • Compute returns from any trading date (Reference Date) from January 2013 to latest update (typically updated after market close each day and end of week worst case) and for a number of holding periods ranging from days to years.

  • Closing price is a major issue with this group as on any given day there are a few to many stocks that did not trade. This version uses the last closing price, which may be from a previous day, to compute returns. Set the SPREAD in the top line of the app to added up to 1 cent to each buy and subtract up to 1 cent on each sell to make returns calculations more realistic. Design intent is to not show a price if a stock has not traded in the last 9 days. Other end of day price adjustments to be applied in future alpha version.

  • All comments, questions and suggests are welcome - please e-mail: dennis@goldminerpulse.com





 

Gold and Silver Miner Daily Update Counts

The following plot shows showing a per day count of gold/silver producers/developers/explorers with one or more "metric impacting" Sedar updates (e.g. resource disclosures, financial statements, shares for debt, private placements, options grants, project ownership changes, mergers/acquisitions, etc.).

As of 11 July 2016, plot updates are being made at the end of each trading day, typically after GLD, GDX and GDXJ have reported their daily stats.

Note: Snapshots are always taken at 4PM of the current day. Any filings after 4PM will only be counted at the next close.

   

Gold and Silver Production Statistics

Production Based on Last/Latest Four Quarters

Using the most recently available quarterly production reports, the gold and silver stocks listed on the TSX/TSXv are reporting production totals on a rolling 4 quarters of:

  • Gold: 25.04M ounces (858.51 tons or 778.83 tonnes), a 1.3% change over the 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.

  • Silver: 166.59M ounces (5,711.66 tons or 5,181.53 tonnes), a -3.8% change over the previous 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.

The running totals for quarterly production numbers for companies with a quarter ending in the months of October, November, December 2016, along with the changes on a Quarter on Quarter (QoQ) basis, for TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver producers are:

# Producers
Reporting
Gold Produced
Latest Q Report
QoQ
Gold Δ
Silver Produced
Latest Q Report
QoQ
Silver Δ
72 of 81 6,132,261 oz
 
210.2 tons
 
190.7 tonne
11% 35,115,357 oz
 
1,204 tons
 
1,092 tonne
-5%

TSX/TSXv Gold Reserves and Resources

Gold reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from gold:

Metric

 
Type of Equity

Gold Reserves
(tons)

 

Gold Resources
(tons, inclusive of reserves)

 

Gold Producers

13702 34598

Gold Developers

3891 13971

Gold Explorers
>5M Oz AuEq

2212 8443

Gold Explorers
<5M Oz AuEq

114 4938

All Gold Equities

19919 61950

Based on gold production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv gold producers have 21.5 years of gold reserves.

 

TSX/TSXv Silver Reserves and Resources

Silver reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from silver:

Metric

 
Type of Equity

Silver Reserves
(tons)

 

Silver Resources
(tons, inclusive of reserves)

 

Silver Producers

117541 288829

Silver Developers

40135 131011

Silver Explorers
>5M Oz AuEq

6563 43997

Silver Explorers
<5M Oz AuEq

541 39995

All Silver Equities

164781 503831

Based on silver production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv silver producers have 33.6 years of reserves.

 

TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver Equities Statistics

The following table includes TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5 of their in situ metal values from gold or silver (in US$).

Type of Equity

 
Metric

Producers
 

 

Developers
 

 

Explorers
>5M Oz AuEq

 

Explorers
<5M Oz AuEq

 

Enterprise Value
Per Oz AuEq

$84 $13 $6 $20

Estimated Discovery Cost
Per Oz AuEq

  $13 $3 $22

Net Working Capital
(US$)

$22,114M $1,418M $514M $1,345M

TSX/TSXv Company Counts by Category

TSX/TSXv company may appear at most one time in the following table. Companies without a gold/silver resource (generators, historic and grass roots) are included on the basis of qualitative assessment of descriptions published in quarterly financial statements.

Category # of Companies in Category

Gold/Silver Streaming and Royalty Companies

6

Gold/Silver Producers

81

Gold/Silver Developers

102

Gold/Silver Explorers

211

Gold/Silver Generator Model Companies
(No Gold or Silver Resource)

NA

Gold/Silver Grass Roots Explorers
(No Gold or Silver Resource)

NA

Total Companies Listed in Sedar.com
(Current, historic, TSX/TSXv, CNDX, and others. See Note 1)

~30,000

Note 1: All TSX/TSXv listed companies are required to file in Sedar.com. However, Sedar.com companies include current companies, companies that no longer file (i.e. as a result of take over, merger, re-organization, bankruptcy, etc.), CNDX companies (Canadian over the counter market listings), and companies listed on foreign exchanges (e.g. US OTC, London, etc.) that have some connection with Canadian investors.

 

Gold and Silver Miner Market Capitalization Estimates

TSX/TSXv Grouping TSX/TSXv Total Market Capitalization
(Millions of US$)
Gold & Silver Producers $110,485
Gold & Silver Streamers $22,206
Gold & Silver Developers $10,908
Gold & Silver Explorers $7,690
Total TSX/TSXv Gold & Silver Miners $151,289
 
Market Cap Estimate For the World's
Gold & Silver miners (Millions of US$)
$531,238

Note: All TSX/TSXv companies with at least 12.5% of their total in situ metal value coming from either gold or silver and which match the category definitions, are included in the above table.

Gold & Silver Producers category includes those companies that report quarterly production counts and revenues for gold and/or silver production.

Gold & Silver Streamers category includes companies focused on creating gold/silver streams or royalty income flows.

Gold & Silver Developers category includes companies with an explicit plan to start production in the near term or which have a spending profile and work plans to imply potential future production.

Gold & Silver Explorers category includes companies that are primarily focused on expanding resource counts at one or more existing gold and silver projects without indicating plans for future production.

Generator and grass roots companies are not covered.

Market capitalization is always computed using closing market price (expressed in US$ using exchange rates in effact at market closing time) and the issued share of each company. Updates are made daily after the TSX market close.

TSX/TSXv Market Share Assumptions: the TSX/TSXv gold producers are estimated to represent approximately 25% of the world's gold producers since the TSX/TSXv gold producers report approximately 25% of the world's yearly gold production. The streamers, explorers and developers are estimated to represent very roughly 50% of the world total for companies in those groupings.

NOTE October 24, 2016: Lowered the TSX/TSXv producer gold production estimate to 25% down from 33% - thus the spike in Market Cap Estimate for the World's Gold & Silver miners.

The Market Cap Estimate For the World's Gold & Silver miners is computed based on the actual TSX/TSXv market capitalizations, computed on a daily basis here using closing market prices and Sedar.com material filings as available at the TSX market closing time, and applying the market share assumptions detailed above.

 

Gold Price Rolling Regression for Multiple Time Periods - Daily Updates

GLD ETF Bullion Holdings Rolling Regression for Multiple Time Periods - Daily Updates

Click here for a scatter plot of GLD gold holdings versus price of gold.

DXY 4PM Quote Rolling Regression for Multiple Time Periods - Daily Updates

LBMA PM Gold Price Correlation With the Gold Held in the GLD ETF

The rolling 6Q scatter plot follows:

On a year by year basis the positive correlation between gold price and GLD gold holdings follows:

Finally, the correlation between gold price and GLD gold holdings over the last 10+ years of the GLD ETF follows:

Click here for more scatter plots.

 

LBMA PM Gold Price Correlation With the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Close

The DXY has been negatively correlated with gold price in recent years. The rolling 6Q scatter plot follows:



 

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Gold ETF Money Flows

Daily Price of Gold changes
Money Flows in/out of GLD
plus the SGE Premium and Settlement volume
mon-dd POG
% Chg
GLD SGE
Prem.
SGE
Sett.
Volume
March 24 0.09% $71.4M $8 25.33t
March 23 0.11% $11 17.14t
March 22 0.29% $12 20.21t
March 21 0.79% $165.7M $1 15.95t
March 20 0.46% $152.6M $14 18.30t

March 17 0.21% $127.0M $12 20.19t
March 16 0.46% $93.7M $17 16.46t
March 15 1.83% $171.1M $1 11.48t
March 14 0.49% $114.6M $28 15.18t
March 13 0.01% $263.7M $22 13.81t

March 10 0.19% $343.4M $11 16.94t
March 9 0.58% $103.6M $23 15.77t
March 8 0.58% $22 9.66t
March 7 0.82% $23 14.79t
March 6 0.72% $158.8M $20 16.88t

March 3 0.03% $186.9M $18 15.82t
March 2 1.13% $78.9M $21 17.46t
March 1 0.11% $94.5M $4 16.55t
February 28 0.02% $15 16.56t
February 27 0.45% $18 20.08t

February 24 0.66% $10 21.79t
February 23 0.81% $2 14.92t
February 22 0.17% $7 17.37t
February 21 0.02% $8 12.67t
February 20 NA NA NA 12.85t

February 17 0.23% $94.6M $10 11.29t
February 16 0.53% $9 9.21t
February 15 0.39% $105.1M $5 10.23t
February 14 0.17% $13 10.52t
February 13 0.64% $153.1M $16 14.56t

A ? indicates that the closing data for the ETF is to be released - ETF updates happen typically after 8PM EST. Otherwise the cell is left blank if there was no change from the previous day.

A X indicates the GDX ETF did NOT release the end of day holdings.

POG % Chg is computed based on the Kitco gold spot price bid at TSX market closing time and the price at the previous TSX market close.

For GLD, a positive cell value indicated the value of the gold (in millions of dollars) added to the ETF while a negative cell value indicated the value of gold removed from the ETF. Values are computed from data provided by the GLD ETF operator.

The SGE Prem. (Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium) is computed as the difference between the SGE gold closing price (coverted at exchange rates in effect at the TSX close) and gold spot price as reported by Kitco at the TSX close. SGE Sett. (Shanghai Gold Exchange Settlement Volume) is sum of the Au(T+D) and mAu(T+D) daily settlement volumes as reported by the SGE.

 

Shanghai Gold Exchange Gold Closing Price Versus Kitco Closing Price

The Shanghai Gold Exchange Yuan Renminbi price of gold and premium/discount in US dollars relative to the Kitco spot price at TSX close follows (yearly average and 1 year rolling time period comparisons):

Note: See China Public Holiday Calendar for the dates of up coming Chinese holidays.

Yearly Average Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium:
  • 2017 (YTD average): $12.54

  • 2016 (Full year average): $5.72

  • 2015 (Full year average): $2.17

  • 2014 (Full year average): $2.02

  • 2013 (Full year average): $14.94

Rolling Week on Week Comparisons of Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) Premiums (Δ) vs Kitco Spot Gold Price:

Date Shanghai Gold Exchange Close - Au(T+D) Kitco Spot Price at TSX Close SGE Δ
Yuan Renminbi/gram US$/oz
24 March 2017 277.99 $1255 $1247 $8
23 March 2017 278.26 $1257 $1246 $11
22 March 2017 278.73 $1260 $1247 $12
21 March 2017 275.83 $1245 $1244 $1
20 March 2017 277.15 $1248 $1234 $14
17 March 2017 275.35 $1240 $1229 $12
...
23 September 2016 286.83 $1338 $1337 $1
22 September 2016 286.59 $1337 $1337 $0
21 September 2016 284.13 $1324 $1334 $10
20 September 2016 283.39 $1321 $1315 $7
19 September 2016 283.49 $1322 $1313 $9
16 September 2016 NA NA $1311 NA
...
25 March 2016 255.82 $1221 NA NA
24 March 2016 254.88 $1217 $1217 $0
23 March 2016 258.03 $1233 $1220 $13
22 March 2016 261.90 $1255 $1247 $8
21 March 2016 259.40 $1244 $1243 $1
18 March 2016 262.60 $1263 $1254 $9

Currency conversions made using spot rates available on the date. The SGE Δ is computed as the SGE closing price in US$ minus Kitco Spot Price (bid) at TSX Close.

A ? indicates that the closing data update is pending.

See the SGE page for daily updates on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, including a comparison of SGE gold delivery from vault in 2014 versus 2013.

 

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