Last Updated With Closing Market Prices and Document Filings from: 4 August 2015 (as available at TSX closing time).
U.S. Global Investors, Frank Talk Blog, 13 July 2015: Global Investors: You Should Be Paying Attention to this Economic Indicator -- "Understanding PMI is one way investors can use patterns to improve their chances of positive returns in the market - just like card counting in a game of Blackjack."
Curious about the gold market? Read Frank Holmes' latest insights: There's a Huge Disparity Between How Regulators Deal with Gold and Stock Market Manipulation (June 26, 2015).
Also see the excellent presentation: The Optimisitic Investor in a Pessimistic World a presentation by Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer, U.S. Global Investors, much of which Frank presented at CANVEST 15 in Vancouver on May 31.
Use the form below to visually inspect the correlation between the closing market prices of TSX/TSXv gold/silver equities and spot market prices for gold and/or silver and/or copper.
Feedback from one of the 1st users (beta 001):
To quote the cop in Superbad, that metric is ''superbadass!''. And fun.
Since we come to the junior producer field looking for correlation, this is definitely right up a stock pickers alley. Definately a home run. ...
Using the most recently available quarterly production reports, the gold and silver stocks listed on the TSX/TSXv are reporting production totals on a rolling 4 quarters of:
Gold: 25.52M ounces (874.97 tons or 793.76 tonnes), a 1.7% change over the 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.
Silver: 185.83M ounces (6,371.31 tons or 5,779.96 tonnes), a 2.3% change over the previous 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.
The running totals for quarterly production numbers for companies with a quarter ending in the months of April, May and June 2015, along with the changes on a Quarter on Quarter (QoQ) basis, for TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver producers are:
Latest Q Report
Latest Q Report
|53 of 82||4,136,815 oz
Gold reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from gold:
All Gold Equities
Based on gold production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv gold producers have 21.5 years of gold reserves.
Silver reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from silver:
All Silver Equities
Based on silver production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv silver producers have 33.6 years of reserves.
The following table includes TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5 of their in situ metal values from gold or silver (in US$).
Type of Equity
Estimated Discovery Cost
Net Working Capital
TSX/TSXv company may appear at most one time in the following table. Companies without a gold/silver resource (generators, historic and grass roots) are included on the basis of qualitative assessment of descriptions published in quarterly financial statements.
|Category||# of Companies in Category|
Gold/Silver Streaming and Royalty Companies
Gold/Silver Generator Model Companies
Gold/Silver Grass Roots Explorers
Total Companies Listed in Sedar.com
Note 1: All TSX/TSXv listed companies are required to file in Sedar.com. However, Sedar.com companies include current companies, companies that no longer file (i.e. as a result of take over, merger, re-organization, bankruptcy, etc.), CNDX companies (Canadian over the counter market listings), and companies listed on foreign exchanges (e.g. US OTC, London, etc.) that have some connection with Canadian investors.
Contact firstname.lastname@example.org to request a free no obligation evaluation copy of a TSX/TSXv gold/silver miner daily, weekly and monthly reports and private view web pages. I will be happy to work with you to design a product that matches your exact information capture and processing needs.
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Seabridge Gold Finds Extension of KSM's Mitchell Deposit at Depth, July 28 - see Seabridge Gold Inc. Project Summary for KSM summary details.
Gold price break signal flashed on 19 June. more
Gold ETF money flows suggest an overall bearish market sentiment going into June 2015. more
ABX sale of its Cowal Mine: Valuation = $160US/oz in situ while ABX has a market capitalization of $50US/oz AuEq. more
GDX is by far the largest gold equity ETF today - 29 May 2015 net assets were $6.3B U.S., roughly equal to 2% of the estimated total market capitalization of all of the world's gold and silver miners (public + private). And with more than $27B US in physical gold holdings, the GLD ETF is equal to approximately 10% of that world gold and silver mining sector.
The monthly money flows for the GLD and GDX ETFs along with price of gold (POG) and Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) daily settlement volumes totals for the month are detailed below.
|YYYY-MM||Net Flow (US$)||Average
|See Gold Equity ETF Money Flows for per
day flows over last month + definitions
The weekly outlook remains bearish. The downtrend signaled on 19 June 2015 remains firmly in place (click here to view), although the new multi-year low in the price of gold has rescaled the Normalized Relative Price Movement charts thus removing the 19 June signal from the most recent view.
The multi-year lows in the $1140s have been broken. Next levels of support could be at the 20+ year Fibonacci 50% retracement (or perhaps the Jim Rogers call from 21 July, or the 30 July Louise Yamada call - Gold Could sink to $800):
High Daily Close in past 20 years: $1,895
Low Daily Close in past 20 years: $253
Jim Rogers call (21 July): $960
Louise Yamada call (30 July): $800
Gold bullion outflows of $1,319M from the GLD in July 2015 was the highest since the $1,711M in December 2013 (see home page for month GLD and GDX money flows).
The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) daily settlement volumes (combined Au(T+D) plus mAu(T+D)) had a strong week which I interpret as meaning the physical supply of gold the China market is strong, a view is also supported by the outflow of gold from the GLD - some of the gold withdrawn from the GLD can in theory be used to capture SGE price premiums.
On Friday, the SGE showed a negative premium relative to the US closing, just as it did last Friday. Again, I expect the Friday bump in US prices is a result of shorts covering winning positions going into the weekend and I would expect to see positive price premiums in SGE next week. The SGE weekly gold delivery from vault (as of July 24th) continues to out-pace 2014 YTD levels by ever increasing percentages putting 2015 on track for a record breaking year for weekly physical delivery from SGE vaults.
With a more than 128 tonnes of Q2 production reported to date (approximately 200 tonnes expected once all companies have reported), gold production by the TSX listed producers is running 5% over the previous quarter.
The relative price of the other precious metals and base metals continues to suggests a further weakening in the price of gold - platinum remaining well below $1000 and copper is at multi-year lows.
31 July Weekly Average < Weekly Average 6 months ago and less than the Weekly Average 12 months ago
See gold prices in Yuan Renminbi here
High flying gold stocks like Agnico Eagle Mines have crashed this week to levels well below peer averages ( Normalized Relative Price Changes for TSX producers on the GDX) after having strongly outformed peers for much of 2015, a reversal that is commonly seen as bottoms form.
However, flash crash / recoveries are not the usual case for the gold market in recent years, so I would be very caution in any prolonged follow through to the upside in gold and gold equity prices -- AEM and other high flyers can easily under perform peers for a quarter at a time as we saw in Q4/3014.
It is worth nothing that AEM under performance in 2013 can likely be attributed to market recovery from the October 2011 write-off of book value of the Goldex mine due to underground issues and the subsequent return to production at Goldex in September 2013.
The trend has been down and there is no reason to change the outlook for the coming week although the degree of bearishness towards gold from the retail sector, as evidenced by the weekly Kitco survey, suggest a potential for a bounce in the coming week before a retest of the $108x levels in a few months.
The Grexit situation is far from resolved. Payment deadlines are coming in August and resolution is far from clear. In China the markets had a multi year record single day drop. Will Chinese money move to gold or will gold holders sell to raise money to cover other stock market losses?
A key metric to watch for next week is the SGE daily settlement volumes -- with any drop being a leading indicator for future supply shortages to feed the physical gold flow into China via the SGE. When daily settlement volume drops off, the probability for further price declines is diminished. However, as shown by the unexpectedly low official China reserves announced in July, the Chinese market flows is far from an open book even though the SGE provides excellent daily and weekly reports.
So, bottom line, I remain bearish but am extremely worried about a potential for a bounce in gold and gold equities before the end of August and the resolution of the next Greek debt event and the longer term retest of the $108x support levels.
View Friday Outlook for Gold Next Week for past weeks here.
|Daily Price of Gold changes
Money Flows in/out of GLD, GDX and GDXJ
plus the SGE Premiums and Settlement volumes
A ? indicates that the closing data for the ETF is to be released - ETF updates happen typically after 8PM EST. Otherwise the cell is left blank if there was no change from the previous day.
POG % Chg is computed based on the Kitco gold spot price bid at TSX market closing time and the price at the previous TSX market close.
For GLD, a positive cell value indicated the value of the gold (in millions of dollars) added to the ETF while a negative cell value indicated the value of gold removed from the ETF. Values are computed from data provided by the GLD ETF operator.
For the gold equity ETF trading symbol columns, a positive cell value indicates the values of the equities (in millions of dollars) added to the ETF while a negative cell value (shown in red) indicates the value of the equities removed from the ETF.
The SGE Prem. (Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium) is computed as the difference between the SGE gold closing price (coverted at exchange rates in effect at the TSX close) and gold spot price as reported by Kitco at the TSX close. SGE Sett. (Shanghai Gold Exchange Settlement Volume) is sum of the Au(T+D) and mAu(T+D) daily settlement volumes as reported by the SGE.
The Shanghai Gold Exchange Yuan Renminbi price of gold and premium/discount in US dollars relative to the Kitco spot price at TSX close follows (yearly average and 1 year rolling time period comparisons):
Note: See China Public Holiday Calendar for the dates of up coming Chinese holidays.Yearly Average Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium:
2015 (YTD average): $3.22
2014 (Full year average): $2.02
2013 (Full year average): $14.94
|Date||Shanghai Gold Exchange Close - Au(T+D)||Kitco Spot Price at TSX Close||SGE Δ|
|4 August 2015||217.82||$1091||$1088||$3|
|3 August 2015||219.10||$1098||$1086||$12|
|31 July 2015||216.61||$1085||$1095||$10|
|30 July 2015||217.21||$1088||$1088||$1|
|29 July 2015||219.85||$1101||$1097||$4|
|28 July 2015||219.29||$1099||$1096||$3|
|27 July 2015||221.85||$1107||$1094||$13|
|3 February 2015||257.97||$||$||$|
|2 February 2015||257.32||$||$||$|
|30 January 2015||253.76||$1262||$1284||$21|
|29 January 2015||257.28||$1282||$1257||$25|
|28 January 2015||258.98||$1289||$1286||$3|
|27 January 2015||257.91||$1284||$1294||$10|
|5 August 2014||256.83||$1294||$1288||$6|
|4 August 2014||257.41||1296||Holiday|
|1 August 2014||255.69||$1287||$1294||$7|
|31 July 2014||257.51||$1297||$1282||$15|
|30 July 2014||258.39||$1302||$1296||$7|
|29 July 2014||259.84||$1308||$1300||$8|
Currency conversions made using spot rates available on the date. The SGE Δ is computed as the SGE closing price in US$ minus Kitco Spot Price (bid) at TSX Close.
A ? indicates that the closing data update is pending.
See the SGE page for daily updates on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, including a comparison of SGE gold delivery from vault in 2014 versus 2013.
See schedule of holidays in China in 2015 for dates the SGE will be closed.
|TSX/TSXv Grouping||TSX/TSXv Total Market Capitalization
(Millions of US$)
|Gold & Silver Producers||$56,939|
|Gold & Silver Streamers||$11,203|
|Gold & Silver Developers||$7,068|
|Gold & Silver Explorers||$2,494|
|Total TSX/TSXv Gold & Silver Miners||$77,703|
|Market Cap Estimate For the World's
Gold & Silver miners (Millions of US$)
Note: All TSX/TSXv companies with at least 12.5% of their total in situ metal value coming from either gold or silver and which match the category definitions, are included in the above table.
Gold & Silver Producers category includes those companies that report quarterly production counts and revenues for gold and/or silver production.
Gold & Silver Streamers category includes companies focused on creating gold/silver streams or royalty income flows.
Gold & Silver Developers category includes companies with an explicit plan to start production in the near term or which have a spending profile and work plans to imply potential future production.
Gold & Silver Explorers category includes companies that are primarily focused on expanding resource counts at one or more existing gold and silver projects without indicating plans for future production.
Generator and grass roots companies are not covered.
Market capitalization is always computed using closing market price (expressed in US$ using exchange rates in effact at market closing time) and the issued share of each company. Updates are made daily after the TSX market close.
TSX/TSXv Market Share Assumptions: the TSX/TSXv gold producers are estimated to represent approximately 33% of the world's gold producers since the TSX/TSXv gold producers report approximately 1/3 of the world's yearly gold production. The streamers, explorers and developers are estimated to represent very roughly 50% of the world total for companies in those groupings.
The Market Cap Estimate For the World's Gold & Silver miners is computed based on the actual TSX/TSXv market capitalizations, computed on a daily basis here using closing market prices and Sedar.com material filings as available at the TSX market closing time, and applying the market share assumptions detailed above.
Detailed fundamental metrics on the TSX/TSXv gold and silver miners, including per company details such as:
gold and silver reserves / resources breakdowns
enterprise value per ounce of gold reserve (or resource)
average ore value per tonne
breakdown of percentage of gold equivalent ounces by country (2 letter ISO codes)
options to fully customize report to your specific needs
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