Last Updated With Closing Market Prices and Document Filings from: 22 May 2015 (as available at TSX closing time).
Any investor in the market should review the excellent material provided by US Global Investors in a recent report titled: Follow the Smart Money: How the Pros are Trading Right Now (May 7, 2015).
Use the form below to visually inspect the correlation between the closing market prices of TSX/TSXv gold/silver equities and spot market prices for gold and/or silver and/or copper.
Feedback from one of the 1st users (beta 001):
To quote the cop in Superbad, that metric is ''superbadass!''. And fun.
Since we come to the junior producer field looking for correlation, this is definately right up a stock pickers alley. Definately a home run. ...
NOTE: Newmont Gold (NEM on the NYSE), which did at one time trade on the TSX and which still files reports via Sedar.com, is not technically a TSX/TSXv gold producer and was therefore removed from GoldMinerPulse statistics effective 6 March 2015. Previously the NEM statistics were incorrectly counted as part of the TSX/TSXv totals.
Using the most recently available quarterly production reports, the gold and silver stocks listed on the TSX/TSXv are reporting production totals on a rolling 4 quarters of:
Gold: 25.3M ounces (867.43 tons or 786.92 tonnes), a 1.4% change over the 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.
Silver: 183.08M ounces (6,277.03 tons or 5,694.42 tonnes), a 1.7% change over the previous 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.
The running totals for quarterly production numbers for companies with a quarter ending in the months of January, February and March 2015, along with the changes on a Quarter on Quarter (QoQ) basis, for TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver producers are:
Latest Q Report
Latest Q Report
|71 of 88||5,278,403 oz
Gold reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from gold:
All Gold Equities
Based on gold production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv gold producers have 21.5 years of gold reserves.
Silver reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from silver:
All Silver Equities
Based on silver production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv silver producers have 33.6 years of reserves.
The following table includes TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5 of their in situ metal values from gold or silver (in US$).
Type of Equity
Estimated Discovery Cost
Net Working Capital
TSX/TSXv company may appear at most one time in the following table. Companies without a gold/silver resource (generators, historic and grass roots) are included on the basis of qualitative assessment of descriptions published in quarterly financial statements.
|Category||# of Companies in Category|
Gold/Silver Streaming and Royalty Companies
Gold/Silver Generator Model Companies
Gold/Silver Explorers with Historic Resource
Gold/Silver Grass Roots Explorers
Total Companies Listed in Sedar.com
Note 1: All TSX/TSXv listed companies are required to file in Sedar.com. However, Sedar.com companies include current companies, companies that no longer file (i.e. as a result of take over, merger, re-organization, bankruptcy, etc.), CNDX companies (Canadian over the counter market listings), and companies listed on foreign exchanges (e.g. US OTC, London, etc.) that have some connection with Canadian investors.
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GDX is by far the largest gold equity ETF today - 15 May 2015 net assets were $6.4B U.S., roughly equal to 2% of the estimated total market capitalization of all of the world's gold and silver miners (public + private).
The monthly money flows for the GLD and GDX ETFs along with price of gold (POG) and Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) daily settlement volumes totals for the month are detailed below.
|YYYY-MM||Net Flow (US$)||Average
|See Gold Equity ETF Money Flows for per
day flows over last month + definitions
The multi week down trend in gold remains in place. However the trend continues to weaken relative to past weeks. Gold equity holders are only slightly bullish relative to POG indicating a neutral expectation on price action next week.
GDX gold equity ETF has not followed through from the strong 8 May close and ended the week with a small outflow. If an new uptrend in POG was in place I would have expected to see solid money inflows to GDX as we saw in January 2015. I will also be watching the money flow into the GLD physical gold ETF for direction signals (newly added tracking) as well as the SGE daily settlement volumes for more direction clues.
The probability for a pull back gold price is increasing as suggested by the Shanghai Gold Exchange daily settlement volume on futures contracts - the 14 May and 15 May 2015 daily settlement volumes are returning to the low end of Q1 normal values suggesting that physical gold supply may be less of an issue that it was at the start of May. Unfortunately, LBMA GOFO rates are no longer published so my speculation can not be confirmed.
The GDX Visual Correlation chart shows that market cap weighted average of the GDX Producers on the TSX (dashed black line) remaining only slightly above gold suggesting a near neutral expectation on movements next week.
The U.S.D. index remains well below its 50 day moving average and is trending downward. The GDX, GDXJ and SGDM ETFs are above their 50 day averages suggesting a positive bias for gold equities. But the charts look like a relative top has formed and pull back should not be unexpected.
The Shanghai physical delivery from vault for the week ending 8 May (reporting is always on a one week delay basis) was 858 tonnes YTD, a 18.9% increase over the comparable 2014 YTD figures confirming demand from China.
SGE daily settlement volumes as of 15 May are recovering to the bottom end of the Q1 pace which I believe is evidence that any physical gold shortages is starting to ease, perhaps as a result of gold outflows from GLD stores.
Gold priced in Yuan Renminbi is neutral in that the current price is above the 6mth price but below the 12 month price.
On balance, the gold down trend remains in place but is definitely weakening on a week over week basis. I will be watching the daily SGE settlement volumes and gold ETF flows for a break out signal. A break out signal in GDX and GDXJ flows was anticipated for the week ending 15 May but did not happen. Therefore, I am expecting a small pull back in POG and equities for the coming week with week over week movements either neutral or slightly down.
View Friday Outlook for Gold Next Week for past weeks here.
|Daily Changes in Price of Gold and Money Flows into / out of GLD and Gold Equity ETFs plus SGE Daily Settlement Volume (Au(T+D) plus mAu(T+D) ) Over Last 30 Days|
A ? indicates that the closing data for the ETF is to be released - ETF updates happen typically after 8PM EST. Otherwise the cell is left blank if there was no change from the previous day.
POG % Chg is computed based on the Kitco gold spot price bid at TSX market closing time and the price at the previous TSX market close.
For GLD, a positive cell value indicated the value of the gold (in millions of dollars) added to the ETF while a negative cell value indicated the value of gold removed from the ETF. Values are computed from data provided by the GLD ETF operator.
For the gold equity ETF trading symbol columns, a positive cell value indicates the values of the equities (in millions of dollars) added to the ETF while a negative cell value (shown in red) indicates the value of the equities removed from the ETF.
|TSX/TSXv Grouping||TSX/TSXv Total Market Capitalization
(Millions of US$)
|Gold & Silver Producers||$80,422|
|Gold & Silver Streamers||$19,916|
|Gold & Silver Developers||$7,869|
|Gold & Silver Explorers||$2,722|
|Total TSX/TSXv Gold & Silver Miners||$110,930|
|Market Cap Estimate For the World's
Gold & Silver miners (Millions of US$)
Note: All TSX/TSXv companies with at least 12.5% of their total in situ metal value coming from either gold or silver and which match the category definitions, are included in the above table.
Gold & Silver Producers category includes those companies that report quarterly production counts and revenues for gold and/or silver production.
Gold & Silver Streamers category includes companies focused on creating gold/silver streams or royalty income flows.
Gold & Silver Developers category includes companies with an explicit plan to start production in the near term or which have a spending profile and work plans to imply potential future production.
Gold & Silver Explorers category includes companies that are primarily focused on expanding resource counts at one or more existing gold and silver projects without indicating plans for future production.
Generator and grass roots companies are not covered.
Market capitalization is always computed using closing market price (expressed in US$ using exchange rates in effact at market closing time) and the issued share of each company. Updates are made daily after the TSX market close.
TSX/TSXv Market Share Assumptions: the TSX/TSXv gold producers are estimated to represent approximately 33% of the world's gold producers since the TSX/TSXv gold producers report approximately 1/3 of the world's yearly gold production. The streamers, explorers and developers are estimated to represent very roughly 50% of the world total for companies in those groupings.
The Market Cap Estimate For the World's Gold & Silver miners is computed based on the actual TSX/TSXv market capitalizations, computed on a daily basis here using closing market prices and Sedar.com material filings as available at the TSX market closing time, and applying the market share assumptions detailed above.
Detailed fundamental metrics on the TSX/TSXv gold and silver miners, including per company details such as:
gold and silver reserves / resources breakdowns
enterprise value per ounce of gold reserve (or resource)
average ore value per tonne
breakdown of percentage of gold equivalent ounces by country (2 letter ISO codes)
options to fully customize report to your specific needs
are available on a subscription basis. Contact email@example.com to request a free no obligation evaluation copy of a TSX/TSXv gold/silver miner monthly report.
If you are using in house staff to maintain such metrics then you should consider the advantages of outsourcing this task to the GoldMinerPulse team which can prepare custom reports using XML, Excel spreadsheets and/or private access PHP pages.
Per the LBMA website, all GOFO data was discontinued as of 30 January 2015. Thanks in advance to anyone who can provide a good overview blog on the LBMA to trioptima transition (see contacts for e-mail).
The Shanghai Gold Exchange Yuan Renminbi price of gold and premium/discount in US dollars relative to the Kitco spot price at TSX close follows (yearly average and 1 year rolling time period comparisons):
Note: See China Public Holiday Calendar for the dates of up coming Chinese holidays.Yearly Average Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium:
2015 (YTD average): $3.59
2014 (Full year average): $2.02
2013 (Full year average): $14.94
|Date||Shanghai Gold Exchange Close - Au(T+D)||Kitco Spot Price at TSX Close||SGE Δ|
|22 May 2015||240.00||$1204||1205||$1|
|21 Msy 2015||241.64||$1212||$1206||$6|
|20 May 2015||241.00||$1208||$1211||$3|
|19 May 2015||243.11||$1218||$1208||$10|
|18 May 2015||245.14||$1229||TSX Holiday|
|15 May 2015||243.48||$1220||$1225||$5|
|21 November 2014||235.50||$1196||$1201||$5|
|20 November 2014||233.50||$1186||$1195||$9|
|19 November 2014||235.21||$1195||$1183||$13|
|18 November 2014||234.05||$1189||$1197||$8|
|17 November 2014||234.25||$1190||$1186||$3|
|14 November 2014||225.02||$1143||$1175||$31|
|23 May 2014||259.90||$1296||$1293||$3|
|22 May 2014||259.89||$1297||$1295||$2|
|21 May 2014||259.80||$1297||$1291||$5|
|20 May 2014||259.36||$1293||$1295||$1|
|19 May 2014||260.56||$1299||TSX Holiday|
|16 May 2014||259.70||$1296||$1293||$3|
Currency conversions made using spot rates available on the date. The SGE Δ is computed as the SGE closing price in US$ minus Kitco Spot Price (bid) at TSX Close.
See the SGE page for daily updates on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, including a comparison of SGE gold delivery from vault in 2014 versus 2013.
See schedule of holidays in China in 2015 for dates the SGE will be closed. 2 January was the New Year's weekend holiday. The next holiday will be Spring Festival Eve and Chinese New Year holidays started 18 February and ending 24 February.
The Agnico Eagle 1 May news release on Q1 production included a full and clear correction of the 11 February 2015 LaRonde base metal disclosure error. I will be updating my blog, LaRonde Base Metal Disclosure Error over the next quarter to see if any useful observations can be made from the LaRonde disclosure error. While the Q1/15 AEM production numbers were very good, I want to see if the trend continues into Q2 before making any final conclusion as to whether or not the 11 February disclosure error had an appreciable impact on AEM price action.
Select Friday's news headlines from the 1,901 mining stocks (producers, developers, explorers, base metal producers plus a few of the capital pool companies) GoldMinerPulse tracks:
View more of Friday's news headlines here. Our news headlines update each TSX/TSXv trading day, typically mid morning and then several times during the trading day.