GoldMinerPulse: TSX/TSXv Gold Mining and Silver Mining Companies

Last Updated With Closing Market Prices and Document Filings from: 2 July 2015 (as available at TSX closing time).


High Value Tips

Any investor in the market should review the excellent material provided by US Global Investors in a recent report titled: Follow the Smart Money: How the Pros are Trading Right Now (May 7, 2015).

Also see the excellent presentation: The Optimisitic Investor in a Pessimistic World a presentation by Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer, U.S. Global Investors, much of which Frank presented at CANVEST 15 in Vancouver on May 31.

Visual Correlations

Use the form below to visually inspect the correlation between the closing market prices of TSX/TSXv gold/silver equities and spot market prices for gold and/or silver and/or copper.

TSX/TSXv Gold/Silver Stocks Correlation With Spot Market Metal Prices
Select TSX/TSXv Gold/Silver Stock Groupings For Review

Index: NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index (HUI)

Producers in ETFs:  GDX   GDXJ   SGDM   SILJ   ZJG  

Developers/Explorers in ETFs:  GDXJ   SGDM   SILJ   ZJG  

Show Group Average

Add Spot Market Close Time Series

   Visual Correlation Chart Setup

Feedback from one of the 1st users (beta 001):

To quote the cop in Superbad, that metric is ''superbadass!''. And fun.

Since we come to the junior producer field looking for correlation, this is definitely right up a stock pickers alley. Definately a home run. ...

Very nice.

   

Gold and Silver Production Statistics

NOTE: Newmont Gold (NEM on the NYSE), which did at one time trade on the TSX and which still files reports via Sedar.com, is not technically a TSX/TSXv gold producer and was therefore removed from GoldMinerPulse statistics effective 6 March 2015. Previously the NEM statistics were incorrectly counted as part of the TSX/TSXv totals.

Production Based on Last/Latest Four Quarters

Using the most recently available quarterly production reports, the gold and silver stocks listed on the TSX/TSXv are reporting production totals on a rolling 4 quarters of:

  • Gold: 24.95M ounces (855.43 tons or 776.03 tonnes), a 1.5% change over the 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.

  • Silver: 183.24M ounces (6,282.51 tons or 5,699.40 tonnes), a 1.8% change over the previous 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.

The running totals for quarterly production numbers for companies with a quarter ending in the months of January, February and March 2015, along with the changes on a Quarter on Quarter (QoQ) basis, for TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver producers are:

# Producers
Reporting
Gold Produced
Latest Q Report
QoQ
Gold Δ
Silver Produced
Latest Q Report
QoQ
Silver Δ
79 of 83 5,396,891 oz
 
185.0 tons
 
167.9 tonne
-12% 31,237,259 oz
 
1,071 tons
 
972 tonne
-8%

TSX/TSXv Gold Reserves and Resources

Gold reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from gold:

Metric

 
Type of Equity

Gold Reserves
(tons)

 

Gold Resources
(tons, inclusive of reserves)

 

Gold Producers

13885 35939

Gold Developers

4298 16565

Gold Explorers
>5M Oz AuEq

2104 7477

Gold Explorers
<5M Oz AuEq

81 5592

All Gold Equities

20369 65573

Based on gold production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv gold producers have 21.5 years of gold reserves.

 



TSX/TSXv Silver Reserves and Resources

Silver reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from silver:

Metric

 
Type of Equity

Silver Reserves
(tons)

 

Silver Resources
(tons, inclusive of reserves)

 

Silver Producers

153639 371395

Silver Developers

47302 134288

Silver Explorers
>5M Oz AuEq

6788 58191

Silver Explorers
<5M Oz AuEq

368 39880

All Silver Equities

208097 603753

Based on silver production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv silver producers have 33.6 years of reserves.

 

TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver Equities Statistics

The following table includes TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5 of their in situ metal values from gold or silver (in US$).

Type of Equity

 
Metric

Producers
 

 

Developers
 

 

Explorers
>5M Oz AuEq

 

Explorers
<5M Oz AuEq

 

Enterprise Value
Per Oz AuEq

$65 $9 $2 $8

Estimated Discovery Cost
Per Oz AuEq

  $12 $3 $22

Net Working Capital
(US$)

$19,742M $729M $263M $480M

TSX/TSXv Company Counts by Category

TSX/TSXv company may appear at most one time in the following table. Companies without a gold/silver resource (generators, historic and grass roots) are included on the basis of qualitative assessment of descriptions published in quarterly financial statements.

Category # of Companies in Category

Gold/Silver Streaming and Royalty Companies

6

Gold/Silver Producers

83

Gold/Silver Developers

142

Gold/Silver Explorers

229

Gold/Silver Generator Model Companies
(No Gold or Silver Resource)

27

Gold/Silver Explorers with Historic Resource
(No Gold or Silver Resource)

Gold/Silver Grass Roots Explorers
(No Gold or Silver Resource)

798

Total Companies Listed in Sedar.com
(Current, historic, TSX/TSXv, CNDX, and others. See Note 1)

~30,000

Note 1: All TSX/TSXv listed companies are required to file in Sedar.com. However, Sedar.com companies include current companies, companies that no longer file (i.e. as a result of take over, merger, re-organization, bankruptcy, etc.), CNDX companies (Canadian over the counter market listings), and companies listed on foreign exchanges (e.g. US OTC, London, etc.) that have some connection with Canadian investors.


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Recent News and Views

  • Gold price break signal flashed on 19 June. more

  • Gold ETF money flows suggest an overall bearish market sentiment going into June 2015. more

  • ABX sale of its Cowal Mine: Valuation = $160US/oz in situ while ABX has a market capitalization of $50US/oz AuEq. more

Market Vectors Gold Miner ETF (GDX)

GDX is by far the largest gold equity ETF today - 29 May 2015 net assets were $6.3B U.S., roughly equal to 2% of the estimated total market capitalization of all of the world's gold and silver miners (public + private). And with more than $27B US in physical gold holdings, the GLD ETF is equal to approximately 10% of that world gold and silver mining sector.

The monthly money flows for the GLD and GDX ETFs along with price of gold (POG) and Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) daily settlement volumes totals for the month are detailed below.

YYYY-MM Net Flow (US$) Average
Gold
Price
Avg POG
% Chg
SGE Avg.
Daily
Settlement
GLD GDX
See Gold Equity ETF Money Flows for per day flows over last month + definitions
 
2015-06 $170.9M $362.5M $1,182 1.2% 12.0 t
2015-05 $912.6M $83.1M $1,197 0.2% 10.5 t
2015-04 $79.5M $558.9M $1,199 1.7% 13.4 t
2015-03 $1,302.2M $171.4M $1,179 3.8% 22.7 t
2015-02 $525.7M $351.6M $1,226 2.2% 22.9 t
2015-01 $1,559.7M $846.7M $1,254

4.5% 16.1 t
2014-12 $296.5M $522.3M $1,200

2.0% 12.1 t
2014-11 $834.5M $55.2M $1,177 3.7% 12.4 t
2014-10 $1,133.2M $247.0M $1,222

1.1% 12.8 t
2014-09 $925.4M $318.1M $1,236

4.6% 10.9 t
2014-08 $283.9M $104.4M $1,296

1.1% 9.7 t
2014-07 $399.3M $189.9M $1,311

2.3% 9.6 t
2014-06 $230.5M $504.2M $1,282

0.5% 11.5 t
2014-05 $456.8M $9.4M $1,288 0.8% 9.1 t
2014-04 $923.4M $53.2M $1,299

2.7% 9.7 t
2014-03 $411.2M $298.2M $1,335 2.7% 11.9 t
2014-02 $433.6M $59.4M $1,300

6.3% 15.2 t
2014-01 $58.6M $136.9M $1,223 1.5% 14.9 t
2013-12 $1,711.3M $109.9M $1,205

3.8% 9.3 t
2013-11 $1,165.3M $219.7M $1,252 5.0% 12.9 t
2013-10 $1,423.7M $6.8M $1,318

2.3% 12.0 t
2013-09 $569.2M $219.7M $1349 0.4% 11.9 t
2013-08 $240.2M $6.8M $1355

5.2% 8.7 t
2013-07 $1,601.8M $754.8M $1288 4.0% 5.0 t
2013-06 $1,848.0M $1,071.5M $1341

5.5% 13.3 t

Notes:

  • POG - price of gold, average Kitco spot price at the close of TSX trading for each day of the month.
  • GLD flows computed from historical data provided by the SPDR GLD Gold Shares site.
  • GDX in flow of $83.1M in May was matched by a $80.1M outflow from GDXJ.
  • SGE Daily Settlement - total of daily Au(T+D) and mAu(T+D) settlement volumes for the month. See SGE Daily for definitions and charts.
  • April 2015 SGE Avg. Daily Settlement was corrected to 13.4 t (previously incorrectly reported as 15.7 t).
 

Outlook For Gold and Gold Equities - 27 June view for the 3 July Close

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Normalized relative price curves for gold and the GDX have returned to their normal relationship with the gold curve below the GDX curve. Unfortunately this indicator, although very good at calling a down break in the price of gold and gold equities, does not provide any clues as to how long or how low the drop is likely to be - a visual review of the past events (click here to view) suggests the drop duration could range from as little as a week to many weeks.

The past week showed money flowing into GLD and GDX with Friday showing a $67.4M outflow from GLD that was matched by a $67.4M inflow to GDX.

The relative price of the other precious metals and that of copper continue to point to continued weakness for metal prices.

The SGE weekly gold delivery from vault (as of June 19th) continues to outpace 2014 YTD levels by ever increasing percentages. SGE daily settlement volumes are relatively weak compaired to levels seen in Q1 2015. Finally, the yuan price of gold is very much in a down trend:

  • Friday (Jun 26th) price was the low of the week

  • 26 June Weekly Average < Weekly Average 6 months ago < Weekly Average 12 months ago

  • See gold prices in Yuan Renminbi here

Outlook

The trend has been down and there is no reason to change the outlook. However, the GLD and GDX money flows and the relatively light SGE daily settlement volumes suggest limited risks of a significant downside move.

View Friday Outlook for Gold Next Week for past weeks here.

 

 

Gold ETF Money Flows

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Daily Changes in Price of Gold and Money Flows into / out of GLD and Gold Equity ETFs plus SGE Daily Settlement Volume (Au(T+D) plus mAu(T+D) ) Over Last 30 Days
mon-dd POG
% Chg
GLD GDX GDXJ SGE Daily
Settlement Volume
Jul 02 0.21% $67.1M ? ? 10.64t
Jul 01 0.37% 15.03t
Jun 30 0.58% $75.3M 10.32t
Jun 29 0.38% $9.4M 10.08t

Jun 26 0.13% $67.4M $67.4M 12.12t
Jun 25 0.09% $258.6M 8.62t
Jun 24 0.33% $34.0M $9.7M $0.4M 10.70t
Jun 23 0.60% $30.8M $6.8M 15.48t
Jun 22 1.33% $136.1M $41.0M $15.3M na - Dragon Boat Festival

Jun 19 0.10% $66.6M $2.9M 32.13t
Jun 18 1.27% $11.4M $0.8M 11.34t
Jun 17 0.46% $11.0M 13.35t
Jun 16 0.41% $29.8M $4.6 11.69t
Jun 15 0.49% $79.0M $3.7M $7.4M 8.74t

Jun 12 0.03% $9.1M $2.8M 14.02t
Jun 11 0.40% $23.4M 12.22t
Jun 10 0.82% $57.3M $1.4M 11.26t
Jun 9 0.21% $112.8M $42.3M 9.40t
Jun 8 0.21% $10.4M $2.8M 16.08t

Jun 5 0.37% $44.6M $7.5M 16.08t
Jun 4 0.75% $7.6M 7.46t
Jun 3 0.70% $2.9M 8.90t
Jun 2 0.31% $160.3M $4.9M 4.72t
Jun 1 0.03% $69.1M $39.0M 6.52t

May 29 0.09% $53.9M $15.7 12.45t
May 28 0.08% $48.9M $8.5M 9.07t
May 27 0.03% $53.4M $1.7M 9.94t
May 26 1.63% $22.9M 10.83t
May 25 0.13% 12.44t

May 22 0.07% $29.8M $6.5M 16.88t
May 21 0.37% 9.02t
May 20 0.22% $116.3M 9.65t
May 19 1.37% $18.0M $6.5M 9.44t
May 18 $223.0M $15.6M $12.1M 15.42t

A ? indicates that the closing data for the ETF is to be released - ETF updates happen typically after 8PM EST. Otherwise the cell is left blank if there was no change from the previous day.

POG % Chg is computed based on the Kitco gold spot price bid at TSX market closing time and the price at the previous TSX market close.

For GLD, a positive cell value indicated the value of the gold (in millions of dollars) added to the ETF while a negative cell value indicated the value of gold removed from the ETF. Values are computed from data provided by the GLD ETF operator.

For the gold equity ETF trading symbol columns, a positive cell value indicates the values of the equities (in millions of dollars) added to the ETF while a negative cell value (shown in red) indicates the value of the equities removed from the ETF.

 

Shanghai Gold Exchange Gold Closing Price Versus Kitco Closing Price

The Shanghai Gold Exchange Yuan Renminbi price of gold and premium/discount in US dollars relative to the Kitco spot price at TSX close follows (yearly average and 1 year rolling time period comparisons):

Note: See China Public Holiday Calendar for the dates of up coming Chinese holidays.

Yearly Average Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium:
  • 2015 (YTD average): $3.12

  • 2014 (Full year average): $2.02

  • 2013 (Full year average): $14.94

Rolling Week on Week Comparisons of Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) Premiums (Δ) vs Kitco Spot Gold Price:

Date Shanghai Gold Exchange Close - Au(T+D) Kitco Spot Price at TSX Close SGE Δ
Yuan Renminbi/gram US$/oz
2 July 2015 232.60 $1166 $1165 $1
1 Jul 2015 233.93 $1173 Canada Day Holiday
30 June 2015 234.72 $1178 $1172 $6
29 June 2015 235.54 $1180 $1179 $1
26 June 2015 234.54 $1175 $1175 $1
25 June 2015 235.02 $1177 $1173 $4
...
1 January 2014 New Years Holiday
31 December 2014 240.00 $1203 $1183 $20
30 December 2014 240.00 $ $ $
29 December 2014 238.76 $1193 $1184 $10
26 December 2014 237.63 $1223 na
25 December 2014 236.40 $1183 na
...
3 July 2014 263.68 $1320 $1320 $1
2 July 2014 264.40 $1324 $1327 $3
1 July 2014 264.01 $1324 Canada Day Holiday
30 June 2014 261.99 $1313 $1328 $15
27 June 2014 263.18 $1317 $1316 $0
26 June 2014 262.79 $1313 $1316 $3

Currency conversions made using spot rates available on the date. The SGE Δ is computed as the SGE closing price in US$ minus Kitco Spot Price (bid) at TSX Close.

See the SGE page for daily updates on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, including a comparison of SGE gold delivery from vault in 2014 versus 2013.

See schedule of holidays in China in 2015 for dates the SGE will be closed.

Gold and Silver Miner Market Capitalization Estimates

TSX/TSXv Grouping TSX/TSXv Total Market Capitalization
(Millions of US$)
Gold & Silver Producers $74,631
Gold & Silver Streamers $18,152
Gold & Silver Developers $7,891
Gold & Silver Explorers $3,136
Total TSX/TSXv Gold & Silver Miners $103,810
 
Market Cap Estimate For the World's
Gold & Silver miners (Millions of US$)
$285,387

Note: All TSX/TSXv companies with at least 12.5% of their total in situ metal value coming from either gold or silver and which match the category definitions, are included in the above table.

Gold & Silver Producers category includes those companies that report quarterly production counts and revenues for gold and/or silver production.

Gold & Silver Streamers category includes companies focused on creating gold/silver streams or royalty income flows.

Gold & Silver Developers category includes companies with an explicit plan to start production in the near term or which have a spending profile and work plans to imply potential future production.

Gold & Silver Explorers category includes companies that are primarily focused on expanding resource counts at one or more existing gold and silver projects without indicating plans for future production.

Generator and grass roots companies are not covered.

Market capitalization is always computed using closing market price (expressed in US$ using exchange rates in effact at market closing time) and the issued share of each company. Updates are made daily after the TSX market close.

TSX/TSXv Market Share Assumptions: the TSX/TSXv gold producers are estimated to represent approximately 33% of the world's gold producers since the TSX/TSXv gold producers report approximately 1/3 of the world's yearly gold production. The streamers, explorers and developers are estimated to represent very roughly 50% of the world total for companies in those groupings.

The Market Cap Estimate For the World's Gold & Silver miners is computed based on the actual TSX/TSXv market capitalizations, computed on a daily basis here using closing market prices and Sedar.com material filings as available at the TSX market closing time, and applying the market share assumptions detailed above.

Detailed fundamental metrics on the TSX/TSXv gold and silver miners, including per company details such as:

  • gold and silver reserves / resources breakdowns

  • enterprise value per ounce of gold reserve (or resource)

  • average ore value per tonne

  • breakdown of percentage of gold equivalent ounces by country (2 letter ISO codes)

  • options to fully customize report to your specific needs

are available on a subscription basis.

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