The chart on this page was last updated with the closing market prices for 31 May 2013. Next update Next update is planned mid July with end of June data..
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An important point to remember is that the market constantly exhibits inertia and tends to continue to do what it has just been doing. If it is in a trend, most attempts to reverse it will fail. If it is in a trading range, most attempts to break out into a trend will fail.
Al Brooks, Trading Price Action TRENDS, Wiley Trading, 2012
The TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver Producer: Market Sentiment (MS) v. Price of Gold (POG) chart pictured above represents a measure of the collective bullish/bearish valuation of the TSX/TSXv gold and silver producer stocks based on the trend direction of the Market Sentiment (MS) shown in blue. The Price of Gold (POG), shown in gold, over the same data points is provided for a reference.
The MS and POG in the chart are scaled to show data points as a percentage of the range between min and max value in the time period of the graph. Mouse over data points on the chart to view unscaled values and trading day (Month-day format).
A rising Market Sentiment (MS) is an indicator of a bullish market condition while a falling MS is bearish. A flatting of MS signals market indecision, that is a sideways moving trendless market that could break out either up or down.
While MS does track the POG to a degree, looking at just the POG to determine market trends yields a higher number of false break outs such as the 23 November 2012 spike in gold prices which did not change the prevailing MS trend.
I publish an assessment of the MS trends each Friday and include an outlook for the coming week/months as well as an interpretation of key events in the past week and events to watch in the coming week. The most recent as well as past Friday calls can be viewed via the links below.
Next update planned: mid July based on June 28 data (daily updates available to service subscribers).
Current Chart shows MS through 31 May, 2013.
2013-05-03 (latest Friday closing comments) -- MS Moves Up With Strongest 1 Week Move During The Past Year
2013-04-26 -- MS Bounces Off Multi-Year Lows As Physical Delivery Problems Appear
2013-04-19 -- MS Makes New Multi-Year Low While Physical Delivery Strenghtens
2013-04-12 -- MS Makes New Multi-Year Low
2013-04-05 -- MS Multi-year Low Hold
2013-03-29 -- MS Up Turn From Multi-year Lows Continues To Build
2013-03-22 -- MS Up Slightly From Multi-year Lows
2013-03-15 -- MS Continues to Make Multi-year Lows
2013-03-08 -- MS At Multi-Year Low
2013-03-01 -- MS Hitting Lows Not Seen Since July 2012
2013-02-22 -- Up trend from 20 December 2012 Failed
2013-02-15 -- Up trend from 20 December 2012 Confirmed
2013-02-08 -- Up trend from 20 December 2012 Still Holds
2013-02-01 -- Up trend from 20 December 2012 Still Holds, But Is Weakening
2013-01-25 -- Up trend from 20 December 2012 Still Holds
Market sentiment is a fundamentals based measure of gold/silver equities trends computed from three separate market valuations. The valuation models are a function of the 116 TSX/TSXv gold and silver producers. Valuations are based on:
Market closing prices (snapshot taken at TSX closing time),
Ounces of gold and silver reserves and resources,
Gold and silver reserves and resources grades,
Gold and silver quarterly production numbers,
Issued shares plus warrants and options in the money (or within 10% of being in the money),
Current assets, current liabilities, and
Additional data points collected from the quarterly financial reports.
Note: Sedar.com filings and news releases are processed on a daily basis before the day's update is completed.
Sentiment is an example of a custom metric GoldMinerPulse has developed to demonstrate the value of proprietary metrics for improving trading results. The detail computation used to generate the MS metric, along with daily updates, will be sold on an exclusive use basis to one interested party -- once the sale is completed, this metric will no longer be shared on my free website. Contact me if you are interested in learning more about this metric.
GoldMinerPulse can develop and/or maintain proprietary fundamentals based metrics on a confidential basis for a small number of fund managers (or institutional investors), managers with access to soft dollar funds to purchase market research, to support their trading activity in TSX/TSXv gold and silver equities.
Click Talk Back to ask Dennis for more information about the MS metric and other data collection and management services available at GoldMinerPulse. Custom metrics are provided on a subscription basis via private web pages, unique to each subscriber. GoldMinerPulse is pleased to develop a unique blend of metrics based on a client's trading and investment informational needs. In my experience, it often makes good business sense to outsource data capture and maintenance allowing in house staff to focus exclusively on analysis.
For now, the MS chart will be updated weekly and is provided here on a free basis to aid individual investors as well as providing a working example of the utility of GoldMinerPulse custom metrics to potential subscribers. Daily and intra-day updates of metrics are available via subscription services to private research pages.