| Version | Effective Date | PayPal Link |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1 |
16 March 2012 |
|
Price: The price for the latest PDF version of the eBook is C$500.
Purchase: To purchase a copy of the eBook, click on the PayPal Buy Now link above. Once you have successfully completed the purchase, PayPal will take you to a webpage where you will download the eBook PDF. Please save your purchased copy to your local drive. I will also contact you once I have received confirmation of your payment.
Fair Use: By downloading the eBook PDF, you agree to exclusive individual use. Redistribution or republication is prohibited except by express written agreement. Please contact Dennis Boyko at dennis@goldminerpulse.com for redistribution licensing particulars, including fees.
Value: Although all information in the eBook is available free from the System for Electronic Document Analysis and Retrieval (SEDAR), I think you'll find the eBook more convenient. It would take 10s of hours to capture a metric, such as the annual gold and silver production, for all the TSX / TSXv miners - 100s more for the complete set of metrics available in the eBook and longer still to produce a snapshot that covers each company as of a particular date.
Updates and Corrections: All queries, comments and error reports will be reviewed in a timely manner.
The GoldMinerPulse eBook, which I plan to publish at regular intervals still to be decided, is an independent reference guide to the 513 gold and silver mining companies trading on the TSX / TSXv Exchanges in Toronto. A comparison of reserves and production recorded in disclosures filed under Canada's strict financial reporting rules (see Review of BC Securities Commission Decisions and Orders, March, 2011 blog) with production and reserve U.S. Geological Survey National Minerals Information Center (USGS) stats reveals that companies trading on the TSX / TSXv now control more than a third of the world's annual gold production.
Most of the eBook concerns the 416 companies with a resource of at least 15% in situ metal value derived from either gold or silver. These are then sub-divided further into the following categories: Producers (119), companies in full mine production, Developers (91), companies advancing one or more deposits toward production and Explorers (206), companies primarily focused on expanding their resources. I also include Stream Companies (6), virtual miners that pre-purchase mine production at a fixed price in exchange for upfront fees to fund mine development.
This unique compendium is published from a model and tracking process which I maintain daily by recording the companies' disclosures and monitoring various news sources. The content is current as of the eBook effective date. The eBook provides a broad, authoritative view of the companies individually and in various categories (see below) in just one clickable document. Each company identified by name and exchange trading symbol(s) is listed with a link to its home page as well as a concise record of enterprise value, fully diluted share estimate, dividends, current assets value, current liabilities, issued stock trend (sTrend), retained earnings or accumulated deficit trend (eTrend), average ore value per tonne, reserves, resources, and production trends.
New: Version 1.1 includes the results from a fundamentals driven valuation model. Specifically, the valuation model computes a Fundamentals Implied Price for gold producers and silver producers. As well, a Most Optimistic Price target is computed for gold producers and silver producers. The valuation model is NOT a net present value calcuation, nor is it a discount cash flow calculation. It is also NOT an abstract data mining result. Rather my valuation model relies exclusively on the fundamental data that is already published in the eBook (www.goldminerpulse.com/e/). Although my valuation model is straightforward, it is also I believe, an alternate analysis of a gold or silver producer's fundamentals. A model driven by fundamental data from financial statements, applied uniformly across the universe of TSX / TSXv gold and silver producers, is clearly actionable when some stocks show as correctly valued and others are either over or under valued at current market prices. In some cases, other factors, such as country specific risks may explain why a given stock appears undervalued -- for example, Centamin plc, with its mining operation in Egypt, closed below a $1.25 recently while my valuation model generated a Fundamentals Implied price of $7+ and a Most Optimistic price of $11+. So, additional research and understanding is always required. However, an early move out of a stock trading well above the model generated price targets or an early move into a stock trading well below target prices can potentially save/earn you 10 times, 100 times or much more than the price of this eBook on single position. On a backtest, the valuation model identified Agnico-Eagle as a significantly overvalued stock based on fundamental data available from the Q2, 2011 Agnico-Eagle financial statements (with the Q3, 2011 financials Agnico-Eagle was rejected as a candidate company for computing a Fundamentals Implied Price or Most Optimistic Price). How much might you have saved (or made if didn't own Agnico) if you had of had unbaised independent research flagging Agnico-Eagle as overvalued before Q3/12? I believe my eBook price targets are valuable because they are 100% driven by fundamentals taken from financial filings, consistent across all companies and without subjectivity -- I am 100% confident that once you see a worked example of my valuation algorithm, you will be able to easily derive equivalent prices targets. Please note that the eBook does not provide financial advise. Rather it provides independent research based on a systematic and unbiased interpretation of financial data fundaments.
Please send me a request via e-mail and I will send you additional information with which you can statistical tests on correlation between the Fundamentals Implied Price and the actual stock price. I will be happy to send you a spreadsheet as well as answer questions. FYI, the basic correlation coefficients I computed, for the 16 March 2012 model output were:
Actual closing stock price against the Fundamentals Predicted stock price (Gold Stocks):
Number of companies covered: 46
Correlation: 0.8
Covariance: 138.59
Actual closing stock price against the Most Optimistic stock price (Gold Stocks):
Number of companies covered: 51
Correlation: 0.44
Covariance: 296.57
Actual closing stock price versus the Fundamentals Implied Price (Silver Stocks):
Number of companies covered: 13
Correlation: 0.77
Covariance: 29.66
Actual closing stock price versus the Most Optimistic Price (Silver Stocks):
Number of companies covered: 17
Correlation: 0.54
Covariance: 156.07
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Please send any comments, suggestions or error reports via eBook@goldminerpulse.com or use the online comment form, Talk Back.