Shanghai Gold Exchange Au(T+D) Weekly Delivery and Daily Settlement Volume Trends
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The Shanghai Gold Exchange reports gold deliveries from vaults on a weekly basis (on a one week delayed basis). The cummulative weekly year to date deliveries for 2013, 2014 and 2015 reports are plotted below.
Caution: the week 38 updates of the above chart incorrectly labelled the 2014 and 2013 YTD deliveries (the plot accuracy was not impacted by the label error). This problem has been corrected with the week 39 update and should not reoccur in future updates.
An example of the weekly Chinese language report showing delivery volume from vault is presented below. The image below was taken from p. 7 of the 14 June 2013 report (available 21 June 2013) which can be found in the SGE Site in the weekly quote update section (direct link is not available).
Data on daily delivery from vault is not available in any SGE report -- the quantitly labeled as delivery volume on the SGE English language pages should be understood as "settlement volume" and is definitely NOT delivery volume from vault.
I received the following explanation on the daily Au(T+D) delivery, which I track in the next section below, from a contact at the SGE:
Simply speaking, Au(T+D) is a product with margin and position concept, i.e. you get a long position after buying and get a short positon after selling. Delivery happens everyday between long and short positions. So delivery volume is the volume delivered from some short positions to some long positions. It's nothing relevant to the volume leaving the vault which is not an available data. Think about futures, delivery occurs from short positions to long positions, kind of similar concept for your understanding.
My SGE contact would not, however, comment on the approximately 20 days of 0 Au(T+D) delivery volume during April and May of this year.
Sorry as an exchange, we can not make comments on trading pattern. You have to analysis by yourself based on public info.
The SGE has a flexible range of good delivery bars, which I believe is consistent with an exchange that is commonly used for physical delivery to consumers (source: CHINA NATIONAL GOLD GROUP CORPORATION):
|SGE Weekly Gold Delivery From Vault
versus Daily Settlement Volume|
(totals tonnes for year or year to date)
|2013 FY||2014 FY||2015 YTD|
|Physical Gold Delivery From Vault||2,186||2,102||1,958|
|Au(T+D) + 0.1*mAu(T+D) Settlement Volume||2,977||3,302||2,802|
Note: Corrected 2013 and 2014 full year settlement volume counts on Aug28/15.
An ad hoc inspection the historic periods of negative GOFO rates suggests that when rates are negative, daily settlement volumes drop off and settlment volumes pickup after rates return to their normal positive values -- major periods of past negative GOFO rates were:
The weekly physical gold deliveries, which I believe are always made from physical inventory, do not appear correlated with GOFO rates.
I strongly expect that as of mid April 2015, gold GOFO rates are solidly negative. TIA to anyone who can send me the current GOFO quotes.
The following chart shows Au(T+D) plus the 0.1 * mAu(T+D) daily settlement volumes on a monthly basis, including current month to date.