High Value Tips
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Frank Holmes - July 7, 2017 Commodities Halftime Report: Separating the Wheat from the Chaff
Data Exploration Tools
4 July 2017 - added a "total debt / market capitalization" (real valued) metric to the nged app and the ngp app. Total debt is computed as the current + long term liability as reported quarterly plus subsequent news releases.
19 June 2017 - corrected a currency conversion issue when current liabilities or current assets involved multiple currency.
Please see nged for current TSX/TSXv gold explorer/developer rankings based on financial and fundamental metrics.
Please see ngp for current TSX/TSXv gold producer rankings based on financial and fundamental metrics.
GOAU: A New Way to Invest in Gold and Precious Metals
Watch this exciting interview at Kitco news for a first-hand introduction to GOAU, a gold and precious metals ETF launching soon. Learn more about this game-changing product here and view the SEC filing details here.
Unlike other gold ETFs, GOAU implements a "quant" strategy to guide its stock selection. Drawing from an array of factors that have proven successful, the new ETF seeks, for instance, to discriminate between companies with good and bad management and to identify companies with superior metrics. This active, discriminating approach not only is attractive for its own sake, but is buttressed by back testing results going back 10 years.
GOAU is also unique in that it incorporates streamers and royalty companies. Through NSRs (Net Smelter Returns) and similar deals, which avoid share dilution and which may even attach to property title, streamers and royalty companies offer an indirect, but arguably much safer way to gain exposure to gold explorers and developers.
Finally, the GOAU picks up a safe slice of world production. Since moves in the price of gold, and ultimate profitability of miners, can vary greatly from country to country as local currencies fluctuate, this ETF benefits from having diverse holdings.
I fully expect the GOAU to become larger than the GDXJ ETF within 5 years and ultimately to surpass even the GDX ETF, becoming second only to GLD ETF in the gold sector.
Anyone looking for exposure to the gold sector need look no further than GOAU. Once it has launched, I plan on putting my own gold sector investment allocations into this incredible product!
Also see Streetwise Reports, Sector Expert: Frank Holmes for timely blogs and commentary.
Gold and Silver Production Statistics
Production Based on Last/Latest Four Quarters
Using the most recently available quarterly production reports, the gold and silver stocks listed on the TSX/TSXv are reporting production totals on a rolling 4 quarters of:
Gold: 25.33M ounces (868.46 tons or 787.85 tonnes), a 0.7% change over the 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.
Silver: 161.34M ounces (5,531.66 tons or 5,018.23 tonnes), a -1.7% change over the previous 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.
The running totals for quarterly production numbers for companies with a quarter ending in the months of January, February, March 2017, along with the changes on a Quarter on Quarter (QoQ) basis, for TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver producers are:
| # Producers Reporting |
Gold Produced Latest Q Report |
QoQ Gold Δ |
Silver Produced Latest Q Report |
QoQ Silver Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71 of 79 | 6,034,097 oz 206.9 tons 187.7 tonne |
-9% | 37,017,383 oz 1,269 tons 1,151 tonne |
-7% |
TSX/TSXv Gold Reserves and Resources
Gold reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from gold:
Metric |
Gold Reserves
|
Gold Resources
|
|---|---|---|
Gold Producers |
13521 | 35432 |
Gold Developers |
3878 | 13815 |
Gold Explorers |
2276 | 8603 |
Gold Explorers |
106 | 4524 |
All Gold Equities |
19781 | 62374 |
Based on gold production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv gold producers have 21.5 years of gold reserves.
TSX/TSXv Silver Reserves and Resources
Silver reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from silver:
Metric |
Silver Reserves
|
Silver Resources
|
|---|---|---|
Silver Producers |
116798 | 289832 |
Silver Developers |
37974 | 137592 |
Silver Explorers |
6799 | 44938 |
Silver Explorers |
541 | 39796 |
All Silver Equities |
162112 | 512159 |
Based on silver production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv silver producers have 33.6 years of reserves.
TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver Equities Statistics
The following table includes TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5 of their in situ metal values from gold or silver (in US$).
Type of Equity |
Producers
|
Developers
|
Explorers
|
Explorers
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
Enterprise Value |
$84 | $15 | $6 | $21 |
Estimated Discovery Cost |
$14 | $3 | $25 | |
Net Working Capital |
$20,231M | $1,742M | $523M | $1,047M |
TSX/TSXv Company Counts by Category
TSX/TSXv company may appear at most one time in the following table. Companies without a gold/silver resource (generators, historic and grass roots) are included on the basis of qualitative assessment of descriptions published in quarterly financial statements.
| Category | # of Companies in Category |
|---|---|
Gold/Silver Streaming and Royalty Companies |
6 |
Gold/Silver Producers |
79 |
Gold/Silver Developers |
109 |
Gold/Silver Explorers |
205 |
Gold/Silver Generator Model Companies |
NA |
Gold/Silver Grass Roots Explorers |
NA |
Total Companies Listed in Sedar.com |
~30,000 |
Note 1: All TSX/TSXv listed companies are required to file in Sedar.com. However, Sedar.com companies include current companies, companies that no longer file (i.e. as a result of take over, merger, re-organization, bankruptcy, etc.), CNDX companies (Canadian over the counter market listings), and companies listed on foreign exchanges (e.g. US OTC, London, etc.) that have some connection with Canadian investors.
Gold and Silver Miner Market Capitalization Estimates
| TSX/TSXv Grouping | TSX/TSXv Total Market Capitalization (Millions of US$) |
|---|---|
| Gold & Silver Producers | $116,700 |
| Gold & Silver Streamers | $13,360 |
| Gold & Silver Developers | $11,518 |
| Gold & Silver Explorers | $7,973 |
| Total TSX/TSXv Gold & Silver Miners | $149,550 |
| Market Cap Estimate For the World's Gold & Silver miners (Millions of US$) |
$540,472 |
Note: All TSX/TSXv companies with at least 12.5% of their total in situ metal value coming from either gold or silver and which match the category definitions, are included in the above table.
Gold & Silver Producers category includes those companies that report quarterly production counts and revenues for gold and/or silver production.
Gold & Silver Streamers category includes companies focused on creating gold/silver streams or royalty income flows.
Gold & Silver Developers category includes companies with an explicit plan to start production in the near term or which have a spending profile and work plans to imply potential future production.
Gold & Silver Explorers category includes companies that are primarily focused on expanding resource counts at one or more existing gold and silver projects without indicating plans for future production.
Generator and grass roots companies are not covered.
Market capitalization is always computed using closing market price (expressed in US$ using exchange rates in effact at market closing time) and the issued share of each company. Updates are made daily after the TSX market close.
TSX/TSXv Market Share Assumptions: the TSX/TSXv gold producers are estimated
to represent approximately 25% of the world's gold producers since the TSX/TSXv gold producers
report approximately 25% of the world's yearly gold production.
The streamers, explorers and developers are estimated to represent very roughly 50% of the world total for companies in those groupings.
NOTE October 24, 2016: Lowered the TSX/TSXv producer gold production estimate to 25% down from 33% - thus the spike in Market Cap Estimate
for the World's Gold & Silver miners.
The Market Cap Estimate For the World's Gold & Silver miners is computed based on the actual TSX/TSXv market capitalizations, computed on a daily basis here using closing market prices and Sedar.com material filings as available at the TSX market closing time, and applying the market share assumptions detailed above.
Gold ETF Money Flows
| Daily Price of Gold changes Money Flows in/out of GLD plus the SGE Premium and Settlement volume |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mon-dd | POG % Chg |
GLD | SGE Prem. |
SGE Sett. Volume |
||
| July 21 | 0.84% | $94.7M | $1 | 19.02t | ||
| July 20 | 0.16% | $5 | 8.44t | |||
| July 19 | 0.00% | $212.9M | $8 | 7.92t | ||
| July 18 | 0.57% | $224.2M | $7 | 12.34t | ||
| July 17 | 0.52%/td> | $70.2M | $7 | 10.58t | ||
| July 14 | 0.82% | $1 | 14.04t | |||
| July 13 | 0.12% | $139.1M | $15 | 11.32t | ||
| July 12 | 0.31% | $11 | 11.87t | |||
| July 11 | 0.13% | $6 | 9.31t | |||
| July 10 | 0.21% | $115.3M | $0 | 12.44t | ||
| July 7 | 1.07% | $207.9M | $20 | 25.61t | ||
| July 6 | 0.04% | $9 | 10.66t | |||
| July 5 | 0.16% | $220.5M | $9 | 22.58t | ||
| July 4 | 0.15% | $12 | 15.92t | |||
| July 3 | 1.56% | $245.4M | $21 | 21.47t | ||
| June 30 | 0.27% | $47.1M | $10 | 27.83t | ||
| June 29 | 0.46% | $16 | 24.38t | |||
| June 28 | 0.09% | $11 | 18.09t | |||
| June 27 | 0.39% | $13 | 19.77t | |||
| June 26 | 0.92% | 106.5M | $19 | 18.98t | ||
| June 23 | 0.46% | $119.5M | $7 | 24.83t | ||
| June 22 | 0.28% | $12 | 17.88t | |||
| June 21 | 0.33% | $12.0M | $9 | 26.02t | ||
| June 20 | 0.15% | $14 | 23.35t | |||
| June 19 | 0.82% | $16 | 17.71t | |||
| June 16 | 0.02% | $10 | 30.28t | |||
| June 15 | 0.28% | $48.0M | $13 | 20.66t | ||
| June 14 | 0.58% | $497.4M | $20 | 16.57t | ||
| June 13 | 0.09% | $7 | 15.46t | |||
| June 12 | 0.19% | $10 | 13.92t | |||
| June 9 | 0.84% | $13 | 22.59t | |||
| June 8 | 0.66% | $84.7M | $16 | 18.27t | ||
| June 7 | 0.49% | $405.5M | $13 | 18.27t | ||
| June 6 | 1.07% | $173.0M | $3 | 16.00t | ||
| June 5 | 0.12% | $8 | 23.71t | |||
| June 2 | 0.83% | $145.5M | $8 | 16.89t | ||
| June 1 | 0.06% | $7 | 13.58t | |||
| May 31 | 0.40% | $3 | 14.48t | |||
| May 30 | 0.29% | NA | NA | |||
| May 29 | 0.03% | NA | NA | NA | ||
| May 26 | 0.91% | $4 | 37.66t | |||
| May 25 | 0.12% | $12 | 16.94t | |||
| May 24 | 0.48% | $0 | 16.16t | |||
| May 23 | 0.71% | $203.8M | $19 | 13.75t | ||
| May 22 | 0.42% | $71.6M | $4 | 13.53t | ||
| May 19 | 0.51% | $5 | 18.82t | |||
| May 18 | 0.77% | $47.7M | $8 | 17.116t | ||
| May 17 | 1.78% | $5 | 17.116t | |||
| May 16 | 0.46% | $1 | 19.36t | |||
| May 15 | 0.24% | $14 | 19.83t | |||
A ? indicates that the closing data for the ETF is to be released - ETF updates happen typically after 8PM EST. Otherwise the cell is left blank if there was no change from the previous day.
A X indicates the GDX ETF did NOT release the end of day holdings.
POG % Chg is computed based on the Kitco gold spot price bid at TSX market closing time and the price at the previous TSX market close.
For GLD, a positive cell value indicated the value of the gold (in millions of dollars) added to the ETF while a negative cell value indicated the value of gold removed from the ETF. Values are computed from data provided by the GLD ETF operator.
The SGE Prem. (Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium) is computed as the difference between the SGE gold closing price (coverted at exchange rates in effect at the TSX close) and gold spot price as reported by Kitco at the TSX close. SGE Sett. (Shanghai Gold Exchange Settlement Volume) is sum of the Au(T+D) and mAu(T+D) daily settlement volumes as reported by the SGE.
Gold and Silver Miner Daily Update Counts
The following plot shows showing a per day count of gold/silver producers/developers/explorers with one or more "metric impacting" Sedar updates (e.g. resource disclosures, financial statements, shares for debt, private placements, options grants, project ownership changes, mergers/acquisitions, etc.).
Note: Snapshots are always taken at 4PM of the current day. Any filings after 4PM will only be counted at the next close.
Gold Price Rolling Regression for Multiple Time Periods - Daily Updates
GLD ETF Bullion Holdings Rolling Regression for Multiple Time Periods - Daily Updates
Click here for a scatter plot of GLD gold holdings versus price of gold.
DXY 4PM Quote Rolling Regression for Multiple Time Periods - Daily Updates
LBMA PM Gold Price Correlation With the Gold Held in the GLD ETF
The rolling 6Q scatter plot follows:
On a year by year basis the positive correlation between gold price and GLD gold holdings follows:
Finally, the correlation between gold price and GLD gold holdings over the last 10+ years of the GLD ETF follows:
Click here for more scatter plots.
LBMA PM Gold Price Correlation With the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Close
The DXY has been negatively correlated with gold price in recent years. The rolling 6Q scatter plot follows:
Shanghai Gold Exchange Gold Closing Price Versus Kitco Closing Price
The Shanghai Gold Exchange Yuan Renminbi price of gold and premium/discount in US dollars relative to the Kitco spot price at TSX close follows (yearly average and 1 year rolling time period comparisons):
Note: See China Public Holiday Calendar for the dates of up coming Chinese holidays.
Yearly Average Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium:2017 (YTD average): $10.84
2016 (Full year average): $5.72
2015 (Full year average): $2.17
2014 (Full year average): $2.02
2013 (Full year average): $14.94
Rolling Week on Week Comparisons of Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) Premiums (Δ) vs Kitco Spot Gold Price:
| Date | Shanghai Gold Exchange Close - Au(T+D) | Kitco Spot Price at TSX Close | SGE Δ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yuan Renminbi/gram | US$/oz | |||
| 21 July 2017 | 273.02 | $1255 | $1254 | $1 |
| 20 July 2017 | 271.31 | $1248 | $1244 | $5 |
| 19 July 2017 | 271.38 | $1250 | $1242 | $8 |
| 18 July 2017 | 270.79 | $1248 | $1242 | $7 |
| 17 July 2017 | 270.24 | $1242 | $1235 | $7 |
| 14 July 2017 | 267.50 | $1227 | $1228 | $1 |
| ... | ||||
| 20 January 2017 | 269.17 | $1217 | $1207 | $10 |
| 19 January 2017 | 268.12 | $1214 | $1205 | $9 |
| 18 January 2017 | 270.98 | $1233 | $1206 | $27 |
| 17 January 2016 | 271.89 | $1233 | $1215 | $17 |
| 16 January 2016 | 268.05 | $1208 | $1203 | $6 |
| 13 January 2017 | 268.64 | $1211 | $1198 | $13 |
| ... | ||||
| 22 July 2016 | 284.65 | $1326 | $1324 | $2 |
| 21 July 2016 | 283.06 | $1319 | $1332 | $13 |
| 20 July 2016 | 285.71 | $1331 | $1313 | $18 |
| 19 July 2016 | 286.79 | $1332 | $1332 | $0 |
| 18 July 2016 | 286.17 | $1327 | $1329 | $2 |
| 15 July 2016 | 286.7 | $1333 | $1329 | $4 |
Currency conversions made using spot rates available on the date. The SGE Δ is computed as the SGE closing price in US$ minus Kitco Spot Price (bid) at TSX Close.
A ? indicates that the closing data update is pending.
See the SGE page for daily updates on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, including a comparison of SGE gold delivery from vault in 2014 versus 2013.
Contact Information
twitter: @GoldMinerPulse
e-mail: dennis@goldminerpulse.com
phone: 778-230-3439, Pacific Standard Time (GMT-8)
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