GoldMinerPulse: TSX/TSXv Gold Mining and Silver Mining Companies

Last Updated With Closing Market Prices and Document Filings from: 15 August 2017 (as available at TSX closing time).


High Value Tips

Frank Holmes - August 14, 2017 Is this the Start of a Hot New Metals Bull Market?

Frank Holmes - August 4, 2017 Storm Advisory - What You Need to Know Now

Data Exploration Tools

  • 4 July 2017 - added a "total debt / market capitalization" (real valued) metric to the nged app and the ngp app. Total debt is computed as the current + long term liability as reported quarterly plus subsequent news releases.

  • 19 June 2017 - corrected a currency conversion issue when current liabilities or current assets involved multiple currency.

Please see nged for current TSX/TSXv gold explorer/developer rankings based on financial and fundamental metrics.

Please see ngp for current TSX/TSXv gold producer rankings based on financial and fundamental metrics.



GOAU: A New Way to Invest in Gold and Precious Metals

Watch this exciting interview at Kitco news for a first-hand introduction to GOAU, a gold and precious metals ETF launching soon. Learn more about this game-changing product here and view the SEC filing details here.

Unlike other gold ETFs, GOAU implements a "quant" strategy to guide its stock selection. Drawing from an array of factors that have proven successful, the new ETF seeks, for instance, to discriminate between companies with good and bad management and to identify companies with superior metrics. This active, discriminating approach not only is attractive for its own sake, but is buttressed by back testing results going back 10 years.

GOAU is also unique in that it incorporates streamers and royalty companies. Through NSRs (Net Smelter Returns) and similar deals, which avoid share dilution and which may even attach to property title, streamers and royalty companies offer an indirect, but arguably much safer way to gain exposure to gold explorers and developers.

Finally, the GOAU picks up a safe slice of world production. Since moves in the price of gold, and ultimate profitability of miners, can vary greatly from country to country as local currencies fluctuate, this ETF benefits from having diverse holdings.

I fully expect the GOAU to become larger than the GDXJ ETF within 5 years and ultimately to surpass even the GDX ETF, becoming second only to GLD ETF in the gold sector.

Anyone looking for exposure to the gold sector need look no further than GOAU. Once it has launched, I plan on putting my own gold sector investment allocations into this incredible product!

Also see Streetwise Reports, Sector Expert: Frank Holmes for timely blogs and commentary.






   

Gold and Silver Production Statistics

Production Based on Last/Latest Four Quarters

Using the most recently available quarterly production reports, the gold and silver stocks listed on the TSX/TSXv are reporting production totals on a rolling 4 quarters of:

  • Gold: 25.63M ounces (878.74 tons or 797.18 tonnes), a 1.9% change over the 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.

  • Silver: 160.46M ounces (5,501.49 tons or 4,990.86 tonnes), a -1.4% change over the previous 4 quarters ending at the prior quarter.

The running totals for quarterly production numbers for companies with a quarter ending in the months of April, May, June 2017, along with the changes on a Quarter on Quarter (QoQ) basis, for TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver producers are:

# Producers
Reporting
Gold Produced
Latest Q Report
QoQ
Gold Δ
Silver Produced
Latest Q Report
QoQ
Silver Δ
71 of 81 6,435,063 oz
 
220.6 tons
 
200.2 tonne
6% 38,006,359 oz
 
1,303 tons
 
1,182 tonne
3%

TSX/TSXv Gold Reserves and Resources

Gold reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from gold:

Metric

 
Type of Equity

Gold Reserves
(tons)

 

Gold Resources
(tons, inclusive of reserves)

 

Gold Producers

13557 36455

Gold Developers

3878 12770

Gold Explorers
>5M Oz AuEq

2276 8603

Gold Explorers
<5M Oz AuEq

112 4555

All Gold Equities

19822 62383

Based on gold production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv gold producers have 21.5 years of gold reserves.

 

TSX/TSXv Silver Reserves and Resources

Silver reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from silver:

Metric

 
Type of Equity

Silver Reserves
(tons)

 

Silver Resources
(tons, inclusive of reserves)

 

Silver Producers

116798 291888

Silver Developers

37978 135544

Silver Explorers
>5M Oz AuEq

6799 44939

Silver Explorers
<5M Oz AuEq

552 39484

All Silver Equities

162127 511855

Based on silver production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv silver producers have 33.6 years of reserves.

 

TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver Equities Statistics

The following table includes TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5 of their in situ metal values from gold or silver (in US$).

Type of Equity

 
Metric

Producers
 

 

Developers
 

 

Explorers
>5M Oz AuEq

 

Explorers
<5M Oz AuEq

 

Enterprise Value
Per Oz AuEq

$77 $16 $6 $21

Estimated Discovery Cost
Per Oz AuEq

  $14 $3 $25

Net Working Capital
(US$)

$20,029M $1,186M $423M $988M

TSX/TSXv Company Counts by Category

TSX/TSXv company may appear at most one time in the following table. Companies without a gold/silver resource (generators, historic and grass roots) are included on the basis of qualitative assessment of descriptions published in quarterly financial statements.

Category # of Companies in Category

Gold/Silver Streaming and Royalty Companies

6

Gold/Silver Producers

81

Gold/Silver Developers

107

Gold/Silver Explorers

205

Gold/Silver Generator Model Companies
(No Gold or Silver Resource)

NA

Gold/Silver Grass Roots Explorers
(No Gold or Silver Resource)

NA

Total Companies Listed in Sedar.com
(Current, historic, TSX/TSXv, CNDX, and others. See Note 1)

~30,000

Note 1: All TSX/TSXv listed companies are required to file in Sedar.com. However, Sedar.com companies include current companies, companies that no longer file (i.e. as a result of take over, merger, re-organization, bankruptcy, etc.), CNDX companies (Canadian over the counter market listings), and companies listed on foreign exchanges (e.g. US OTC, London, etc.) that have some connection with Canadian investors.

 

Gold and Silver Miner Market Capitalization Estimates

TSX/TSXv Grouping TSX/TSXv Total Market Capitalization
(Millions of US$)
Gold & Silver Producers $113,343
Gold & Silver Streamers $13,136
Gold & Silver Developers $11,253
Gold & Silver Explorers $7,840
Total TSX/TSXv Gold & Silver Miners $145,572
 
Market Cap Estimate For the World's
Gold & Silver miners (Millions of US$)
$525,671

Note: All TSX/TSXv companies with at least 12.5% of their total in situ metal value coming from either gold or silver and which match the category definitions, are included in the above table.

Gold & Silver Producers category includes those companies that report quarterly production counts and revenues for gold and/or silver production.

Gold & Silver Streamers category includes companies focused on creating gold/silver streams or royalty income flows.

Gold & Silver Developers category includes companies with an explicit plan to start production in the near term or which have a spending profile and work plans to imply potential future production.

Gold & Silver Explorers category includes companies that are primarily focused on expanding resource counts at one or more existing gold and silver projects without indicating plans for future production.

Generator and grass roots companies are not covered.

Market capitalization is always computed using closing market price (expressed in US$ using exchange rates in effact at market closing time) and the issued share of each company. Updates are made daily after the TSX market close.

TSX/TSXv Market Share Assumptions: the TSX/TSXv gold producers are estimated to represent approximately 25% of the world's gold producers since the TSX/TSXv gold producers report approximately 25% of the world's yearly gold production. The streamers, explorers and developers are estimated to represent very roughly 50% of the world total for companies in those groupings.

NOTE October 24, 2016: Lowered the TSX/TSXv producer gold production estimate to 25% down from 33% - thus the spike in Market Cap Estimate for the World's Gold & Silver miners.

The Market Cap Estimate For the World's Gold & Silver miners is computed based on the actual TSX/TSXv market capitalizations, computed on a daily basis here using closing market prices and Sedar.com material filings as available at the TSX market closing time, and applying the market share assumptions detailed above.

 

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Gold ETF Money Flows

Daily Price of Gold changes
Money Flows in/out of GLD
plus the SGE Premium and Settlement volume
mon-dd POG
% Chg
GLD SGE
Prem.
SGE
Sett.
Volume
August 16 ? ? ? 13.37t
August 15 0.70% $6 11.89t
August 14 0.67% $170.7M $2 14.85t

August 11 0.44% $2 21.27t
August 10 0.74% $3 18.19t
August 9 1.17% $1 17.48t
August 8 0.29% $6 17.48t
August 7 0.13% $10.9M $7 14.93t

August 4 0.75% $15 20.16t
August 3 0.15% $2 12.55t
August 2 0.22% $4 16.76t
August 1 0.07% $5 11.00t
July 31 0.09% $2 17.05t

July 28 0.79% $3 15.00t
July 27 0.18% $143.5M $9 12.59t
July 26 0.87% $201.8M $9 11.63t
July 25 0.38% $369.8M $12 17.76t
July 24 0.07% $167.1M $6 12.95t

July 21 0.84% $94.7M $1 19.02t
July 20 0.16% $5 8.44t
July 19 0.00% $212.9M $8 7.92t
July 18 0.57% $224.2M $7 12.34t
July 17 0.52% $70.2M $7 10.58t

July 14 0.82% $1 14.04t
July 13 0.12% $139.1M $15 11.32t
July 12 0.31% $11 11.87t
July 11 0.13% $6 9.31t
July 10 0.21% $115.3M $0 12.44t

July 7 1.07% $207.9M $20 25.61t
July 6 0.04% $9 10.66t
July 5 0.16% $220.5M $9 22.58t
July 4 0.15% $12 15.92t
July 3 1.56% $245.4M $21 21.47t

June 30 0.27% $47.1M $10 27.83t
June 29 0.46% $16 24.38t
June 28 0.09% $11 18.09t
June 27 0.39% $13 19.77t
June 26 0.92% $106.5M $19 18.98t

June 23 0.46% $119.5M $7 24.83t
June 22 0.28% $12 17.88t
June 21 0.33% $12.0M $9 26.02t
June 20 0.15% $14 23.35t
June 19 0.82% $16 17.71t

June 16 0.02% $10 30.28t
June 15 0.28% $48.0M $13 20.66t
June 14 0.58% $497.4M $20 16.57t
June 13 0.09% $7 15.46t
June 12 0.19% $10 13.92t

A ? indicates that the closing data for the ETF is to be released - ETF updates happen typically after 8PM EST. Otherwise the cell is left blank if there was no change from the previous day.

A X indicates the GDX ETF did NOT release the end of day holdings.

POG % Chg is computed based on the Kitco gold spot price bid at TSX market closing time and the price at the previous TSX market close.

For GLD, a positive cell value indicated the value of the gold (in millions of dollars) added to the ETF while a negative cell value indicated the value of gold removed from the ETF. Values are computed from data provided by the GLD ETF operator.

The SGE Prem. (Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium) is computed as the difference between the SGE gold closing price (coverted at exchange rates in effect at the TSX close) and gold spot price as reported by Kitco at the TSX close. SGE Sett. (Shanghai Gold Exchange Settlement Volume) is sum of the Au(T+D) and mAu(T+D) daily settlement volumes as reported by the SGE.

 

Gold and Silver Miner Daily Update Counts

The following plot shows showing a per day count of gold/silver producers/developers/explorers with one or more "metric impacting" Sedar updates (e.g. resource disclosures, financial statements, shares for debt, private placements, options grants, project ownership changes, mergers/acquisitions, etc.).

Note: Snapshots are always taken at 4PM of the current day. Any filings after 4PM will only be counted at the next close.

 

Gold Price Rolling Regression for Multiple Time Periods - Daily Updates

GLD ETF Bullion Holdings Rolling Regression for Multiple Time Periods - Daily Updates

Click here for a scatter plot of GLD gold holdings versus price of gold.

 

DXY 4PM Quote Rolling Regression for Multiple Time Periods - Daily Updates

 

LBMA PM Gold Price Correlation With the Gold Held in the GLD ETF

The rolling 6Q scatter plot follows:

On a year by year basis the positive correlation between gold price and GLD gold holdings follows:

Finally, the correlation between gold price and GLD gold holdings over the last 10+ years of the GLD ETF follows:

Click here for more scatter plots.

 

LBMA PM Gold Price Correlation With the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Close

The DXY has been negatively correlated with gold price in recent years. The rolling 6Q scatter plot follows:



 

Shanghai Gold Exchange Gold Closing Price Versus Kitco Closing Price

The Shanghai Gold Exchange Yuan Renminbi price of gold and premium/discount in US dollars relative to the Kitco spot price at TSX close follows (yearly average and 1 year rolling time period comparisons):

Note: See China Public Holiday Calendar for the dates of up coming Chinese holidays.

Yearly Average Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium:
  • 2017 (YTD average): $10.10

  • 2016 (Full year average): $5.72

  • 2015 (Full year average): $2.17

  • 2014 (Full year average): $2.02

  • 2013 (Full year average): $14.94

Rolling Week on Week Comparisons of Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) Premiums (Δ) vs Kitco Spot Gold Price:

Date Shanghai Gold Exchange Close - Au(T+D) Kitco Spot Price at TSX Close SGE Δ
Yuan Renminbi/gram US$/oz
16 August 2017 274.35 $1275 ? ?
15 August 2017 274.75 $1279 $1273 $6
14 August 2017 276.61 $1290 $1282 $9
11 August 2017 276.61 $1291 $1290 $2
10 August 2017 275.40 $1288 $1285 $3
9 August 2017 273.93 $1276 $1275 $1
...
15 February 2017 273.15 $1237 $1232 $5
14 February 2017 273.86 $1240 $1227 $13
13 February 2017 274.47 $1241 $1225 $16
10 February 2017 272.84 $1234 $1234 $0
9 February 2017 276.29 $1251 $1242 $20
8 February 2017 274.54 $1242 $1240 $2
...
17 August 2016 286.68 $1344 $1347 $2
16 August 2016 287.98 $1352 $1346 $6
15 August 2016 287.11 $1346 $1339 $7
12 August 2016 286.69 $1344 $1335 $9
11 August 2016 287.55 $1349 $1337 $12
10 August 2016 289.20 $1356 $1346 $10

Currency conversions made using spot rates available on the date. The SGE Δ is computed as the SGE closing price in US$ minus Kitco Spot Price (bid) at TSX Close.

A ? indicates that the closing data update is pending.

See the SGE page for daily updates on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, including a comparison of SGE gold delivery from vault in 2014 versus 2013.

 

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