U.S. Global GO GOLD and Precious Metal Miners ETF (GOAU) VERSUS Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ)
The return ranking of GOAU from its launch versus SGDJ, over the same time period, show GOAU as a clear winner.
GOAU Return Ranking over SGDJ Returns
This is a prototype metric I am testing as part of my Udacity AI for Trading Nanodegree Program program - I am testing de-mean, rescale and sklearn StandardScaler to bring out the clear win of GOAU over SGDJ in a graph. I have included the raw closing prices for both GOAU and SGDJ below for your reference.
I expect to refine, add-to and update on a monthly basis GOAU return ranking versus other ETFs and relevant indices. Please check back in a few weeks.
GOAU Daily Closing Price
SGDJ Daily Closing Price
High Value Tips
Frank Holmes - January 16, 2020 "Buy-and-Hold" Has Historically Been a Winning Investment Strategy
Frank Holmes - January 13, 2020 Dollar Weakness Could Be the Catalyst Commodities Are Looking For
Cryptocurrency / Blockchain: HIVE.V Correlation With ETH and BTC
A full page version of the HIVE/ETH/BTC graphic is available for download/reuse here
A png version of the HIVE/ETH/BTC graphic is also available for download/reuse here
View the key R programming code fragements here if you want to repoduce the excellent correlation numbers for the HIVE time series versus ETH and BTC.
Gold / Metal Streamers and Cryptocurrencies / Blockchain Updates
GoldMinerPulse is tracking cryptocurrency/blockchain companies and streaming / royalty companies accessing or likely to access Canadian capital markets.
Gold and Silver Production Statistics
I am revamping the site and several features are off-line or dropped in make room for new additions. Updates coming in T.B.D.
Finally, if you want to see custom metrics for public access (or private usage) on this site, please see contact me for my contact details.
GOAU: A New Way to Invest in Gold and Precious Metals
Watch this exciting interview at Kitco news for a first-hand introduction to GOAU, a gold and precious metals ETF launching soon. Learn more about this game-changing product here and view the SEC filing details here.
Unlike other gold ETFs, GOAU implements a "quant" strategy to guide its stock selection. Drawing from an array of factors that have proven successful, the new ETF seeks, for instance, to discriminate between companies with good and bad management and to identify companies with superior metrics. This active, discriminating approach not only is attractive for its own sake, but is buttressed by back testing results going back 10 years.
Also be sure to check out GOGO and Galileo which lists the U.S. Global Go Gold and Precious Metal Miners ETF under its list of funds. I fully expect the GOAU and GOGO to become major ETF players once the next gold bull run starts.
Anyone looking for exposure to the gold sector need look no further than GOAU on the NYSE and GOGO on the TSX.
Data Exploration Tools
nged and ngp are available on a custom crafted subscription basis. Updates on the free versions are no longer being provided.
See my contact information at the bottom of the page to make inquiries.
TSX/TSXv Gold Reserves and Resources
Gold reserves and resources for TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5% of their in situ metal values from gold:
Metric |
Gold Reserves
|
Gold Resources
|
|---|---|---|
Gold Producers |
13655 | 37414 |
Gold Developers |
3435 | 11972 |
Gold Explorers |
2198 | 9094 |
Gold Explorers |
138 | 4405 |
All Gold Equities |
19427 | 62885 |
Based on gold production rates reports over the last 4Q, TSX/TSXv gold producers have 21.5 years of gold reserves.
TSX/TSXv Gold and Silver Equities Statistics
The following table includes TSX/TSXv listed companies with at least 12.5 of their in situ metal values from gold or silver (in US$).
Type of Equity |
Producers
|
Developers
|
Explorers
|
Explorers
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
Enterprise Value |
$72 | $12 | $5 | $22 |
Estimated Discovery Cost |
$13 | $3 | $25 | |
Net Working Capital |
$18,581M | $1,351M | $477M | $819M |
TSX/TSXv Company Counts by Category
TSX/TSXv company may appear at most one time in the following table. Companies without a gold/silver resource (generators, historic and grass roots) are included on the basis of qualitative assessment of descriptions published in quarterly financial statements.
| Category | # of Companies in Category |
|---|---|
Gold/Silver Streaming and Royalty Companies |
22 |
Gold/Silver Producers |
83 |
Gold/Silver Developers |
109 |
Gold/Silver Explorers |
203 |
Gold/Silver Generator Model Companies |
NA |
Gold/Silver Grass Roots Explorers |
NA |
Total Companies Listed in Sedar.com |
~30,000 |
Note 1: All TSX/TSXv listed companies are required to file in Sedar.com. However, Sedar.com companies include current companies, companies that no longer file (i.e. as a result of take over, merger, re-organization, bankruptcy, etc.), CNDX companies (Canadian over the counter market listings), and companies listed on foreign exchanges (e.g. US OTC, London, etc.) that have some connection with Canadian investors.
Gold and Silver Miner Market Capitalization Estimates
| TSX/TSXv Grouping | TSX/TSXv Total Market Capitalization (Millions of US$) |
|---|---|
| Gold & Silver Producers | $117,741 |
| Gold & Silver Streamers | $13,420 |
| Gold & Silver Developers | $10,703 |
| Gold & Silver Explorers | $7,812 |
| Total TSX/TSXv Gold & Silver Miners | $149,676 |
| Market Cap Estimate For the World's Gold & Silver miners (Millions of US$) |
$542,645 |
Note: All TSX/TSXv companies with at least 12.5% of their total in situ metal value coming from either gold or silver and which match the category definitions, are included in the above table.
Gold & Silver Producers category includes those companies that report quarterly production counts and revenues for gold and/or silver production.
Gold & Silver Streamers category includes companies focused on creating gold/silver streams or royalty income flows.
Gold & Silver Developers category includes companies with an explicit plan to start production in the near term or which have a spending profile and work plans to imply potential future production.
Gold & Silver Explorers category includes companies that are primarily focused on expanding resource counts at one or more existing gold and silver projects without indicating plans for future production.
Generator and grass roots companies are not covered.
Market capitalization is always computed using closing market price (expressed in US$ using exchange rates in effact at market closing time) and the issued share of each company. Updates are made daily after the TSX market close.
TSX/TSXv Market Share Assumptions: the TSX/TSXv gold producers are estimated
to represent approximately 25% of the world's gold producers since the TSX/TSXv gold producers
report approximately 25% of the world's yearly gold production.
The streamers, explorers and developers are estimated to represent very roughly 50% of the world total for companies in those groupings.
NOTE October 24, 2016: Lowered the TSX/TSXv producer gold production estimate to 25% down from 33% - thus the spike in Market Cap Estimate
for the World's Gold & Silver miners.
The Market Cap Estimate For the World's Gold & Silver miners is computed based on the actual TSX/TSXv market capitalizations, computed on a daily basis here using closing market prices and Sedar.com material filings as available at the TSX market closing time, and applying the market share assumptions detailed above.
Gold and Silver Miner Daily Update Counts
The following plot shows showing a per day count of gold/silver producers/developers/explorers with one or more "metric impacting" Sedar updates (e.g. resource disclosures, financial statements, shares for debt, private placements, options grants, project ownership changes, mergers/acquisitions, etc.).
Note: Snapshots are always taken at 4PM of the current day. Any filings after 4PM will only be counted at the next close.
Gold ETF Money Flows
| Daily Price of Gold changes Money Flows in/out of GLD plus the SGE Premium and Settlement volume |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mon-dd | POG % Chg |
GLD bullion flows$ |
SGE Au(t+d) direction |
SGE Prem. |
SGE Sett. Volume |
|
| January 15 | 0.59% | $188.8M | short to long | $1 | 19.20t | |
| January 14 | 0.13% | long to short | $1 | 25.90t | ||
| January 13 | 0.72% | short to long | $12 | 30.64t | ||
| January 10 | 0.65% | $378.9M | long to short | $1 | 37.18t | |
| January 09 | 0.69% | $237.0M | long to short | $3 | 31.41t | |
| January 08 | 0.68% | $472.3M | short to long | $34 | 28.82t | |
| January 07 | 0.34% | short to long | $2 | 19.35t | ||
| January 06 | 1.16% | $43.8M | long to short | $12 | 21.27t | |
| January 03 | 1.34% | short to long | $23 | 33.38t | ||
| January 02 | 0.69% | $99.8M | long to short | $4 | 25.36t | |
| January 01 | ||||||
| December 31 | 0.18% | long to short | $12 | 18.78t | ||
| December 30 | 0.28% | long to short | $1 | 26.73t | ||
| December 27 | 0.03% | $42.2M | long to short | $3 | 17.35t | |
| December 26 | 0.75% | $168.2M | long to short | $2 | 13.11t | |
| December 25 | long to short | 9.72t | ||||
| December 24 | 0.87% | $139.6M | long to short | $5 | 9.49t | |
| December 23 | 0.11% | long to short | $2 | 9.96t | ||
| December 20 | 0.11% | $125.3M | short to long | $6 | 9.94t | |
| December 19 | 0.24% | long to short | $1 | 6.78t | ||
| December 18 | 0.07% | $124.8M | long to short | $6 | 12.68t | |
| December 17 | 0.03% | $264.2M | short to long | $6 | 10.84t | |
| December 16 | 0.01% | long to short | $10 | 17.78t | ||
A ? indicates that the closing data for the ETF is to be released - ETF updates happen typically after 8PM EST. Otherwise the cell is left blank if there was no change from the previous day.
A X indicates the GDX ETF did NOT release the end of day holdings.
POG % Chg is computed based on the Kitco gold spot price bid at TSX market closing time and the price at the previous TSX market close.
For GLD, a positive cell value indicated the value of the gold (in millions of dollars) added to the ETF while a negative cell value indicated the value of gold removed from the ETF. Values are computed from data provided by the GLD ETF operator.
The SGE Prem. (Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium) is computed as the difference between the SGE gold closing price (coverted at exchange rates in effect at the TSX close) and gold spot price as reported by Kitco at the TSX close. SGE Sett. (Shanghai Gold Exchange Settlement Volume) is sum of the Au(T+D) and mAu(T+D) daily settlement volumes as reported by the SGE.
Gold Price Rolling Regression for Multiple Time Periods - Daily Updates
GLD ETF Bullion Holdings Rolling Regression for Multiple Time Periods - Daily Updates
Click here for a scatter plot of GLD gold holdings versus price of gold.
DXY 4PM Quote Rolling Regression for Multiple Time Periods - Daily Updates
LBMA PM Gold Price Correlation With the Gold Held in the GLD ETF
The rolling 6Q scatter plot follows:
On a year by year basis the positive correlation between gold price and GLD gold holdings follows:
Finally, the correlation between gold price and GLD gold holdings over the last 10+ years of the GLD ETF follows:
Click here for more scatter plots.
LBMA PM Gold Price Correlation With the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Close
The DXY has been negatively correlated with gold price in recent years. The rolling 6Q scatter plot follows:
Shanghai Gold Exchange Gold Closing Price Versus Kitco Closing Price
The Shanghai Gold Exchange Yuan Renminbi price of gold and premium/discount in US dollars relative to the Kitco spot price at TSX close follows (yearly average and 1 year rolling time period comparisons):
Note: See China Public Holiday Calendar for the dates of up coming Chinese holidays.
Yearly Average Shanghai Gold Exchange Premium:2020 (YTD average): $2.95
2019 (Full year average): $9.72
2018 (Full year average): $6.17
2017 (Full year average): $9.11
2016 (Full year average): $5.72
2015 (Full year average): $2.17
2014 (Full year average): $2.02
2013 (Full year average): $14.94
Recent Comparisons of Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) Premiums (Δ) vs Kitco Spot Gold Price:
| Date | Shanghai Gold Exchange Close - Au(T+D) | Kitco Spot Price at TSX Close | SGE Δ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yuan Renminbi/gram | US$/oz | |||
| January 15 | 344.94 | $1557 | $1556 | $1 |
| January 14 | 342.79 | $1546 | $1547 | $1 |
| January 13 | 345.85 | $1560 | $1549 | $11 |
| January 10 | 346.87 | $1559 | $1560 | $1 |
| January 09 | 345.44 | $1547 | $1550 | $3 |
| January 08 | 356.08 | $1594 | $1561 | $34 |
| January 07 | 351.35 | $1573 | $1572 | $2 |
| January 06 | 354.01 | $1578 | $1566 | $12 |
| January 03 | 341.66 | $1526 | $1548 | $23 |
| January 02 | 341.29 | $1524 | $1528 | $4 |
| January 01 | ||||
| December 31 | 342.32 | $1529 | $1517 | $12 |
| December 30 | 340.48 | $1516 | $1515 | $1 |
| December 27 | 340.39 | $1513 | $1510 | $3 |
| December 26 | 339.47 | $1509 | $1511 | $5 |
| December 25 | 338.5 | $1506 | ||
| December 24 | 336.71 | $1494 | $1500 | $5 |
| December 23 | 335.68 | $1489 | $1487 | $2 |
| December 20 | 334.19 | $1484 | $1477 | $6 |
| December 19 | 333.22 | $1478 | $1479 | $1 |
| December 18 | 333.67 | $1482 | $1476 | $6 |
| December 17 | 333.47 | $1482 | $1477 | $6 |
| December 16 | 333.80 | $1486 | $1476 | $10 |
Currency conversions made using spot rates available on the date. The SGE Δ is computed as the SGE closing price in US$ minus Kitco Spot Price (bid) at TSX Close.
A ? indicates that the closing data update is pending.
See the SGE page for daily updates on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, including a comparison of SGE gold delivery from vault in 2014 versus 2013.
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twitter: @GoldMinerPulse
e-mail: dennis@goldminerpulse.com
phone: 778-230-3439, Pacific Standard Time (GMT-8)
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