Gold / silver miners, metals streamer / royalty companies companies / BTC miners plus MSTR
The MBETA version 2.0 will switch from mstr_mcap to mstr_at_mcap (MSTR shares available for trading mcap).
The primary reason for a version 2.0 is to:
back test past changes in past months where MicroStrategy made BTC buys and/or issued Class A shares, RSU, PSU and options
Create a "reasonable" set of rules for estimating the shares used to compute mstr_at_mcap.
The main change with version 2.0 will be shifting of where the zero premium / zero discount occurs. Too high a value for mstr_at_mcap creates and excessive premium while too low a value shows an excessive discount.
Consistent rules back tested over all the time since MicroStrategy has bought Bitcoin will help us establish a "reasonable" estimate as to whether or not MicroStrategy is currently in a premium or discount.
Version 1.1 does show the day to day changes but may be seriously off on premium and discount estimates based on historic data.
Timing for a version 2.0 release is still T.B.D.
Shares Available for Trading: 11,578,757 -- this is not the right share count (will adjust once we finish back testing for version 2.0
MSTR Bitcoin holding current count: 152,800 -- this is the count as of August 1, 2023.
The MBETA plot below shows the percentage change in BTC spot price versus the premium or discount for MSTR shares. The MBETA is computed as:
(mstr_at_mcap/mstr_btc_value - 1 ) * 100
mstr_at_mcap is the product of MSTR price * Shares Available for Trading Estimate.
Horizontal Light Blue Band: The faint blue horizontal bar in the MBETA chart is set between +2% and -2% and is the nominal "normal" premium / discount seen in recent months. The MBETA is new and may not work in the future. However, so far, we are extremely pleased with its simplity and ability to estimate MSTR price based on BTC price and BTC holdings.
Vertical Light Green Band: The NYSE hours are shown in light green and these are the only times where MSTR trades. At all other times, the MSTR price from the NYSE close is used in computing the MBETA.