Click on image for full page view of the regression plot shown below.
Click here to view linear regressions in gold prices from 1970 with multiple time windows.
Click here to view correlation between gold and related markets (Gold holdings in the GLD, NYSE ARCA Gold Bugs Index (HUI), Silver Spot Price, Brent Oil Price, Copper Spot Price, LBMA Gold Fix Prices, US Dollar Index, and Shanghai Gold Exchange Settlement Volume.
Please see Outlook For Gold and Gold Equities in 2016 at Seeking Alpha for the details of my gold price linear regressions from 1990 (with back testing from 1970) and odds computation. Also see Using Gold Price Regression Lines to Detect a Trend Change at Seeking Alpha.
The quarterly and monthly linear regression charts below illustrate the "normal" variance in gold prices over the monthly/quarterly time frames.
Custom tracking/charting services, including generating R plots on gold price and fundamental data, available on a custom order or subscription basis. Please see Contact for more details.