GoldMinerPulse: Gold Mining and Silver Miners plus BTC

Gold / silver miners, metals streamer / royalty companies companies / BTC miners plus MSTR

MicroStrategy - Bitcoin Based Valuation Model

MSTR Valuation Model

BTC Spot Price

The first plot shows the percentage change in BTC spot price versus the premium or discount for MSTR shares. The premium / discount is computed as
(mstr_mcap/mstr_btc_value - 1 ) * 100

When the NYSE is closed, the last available MSTR price is used to compute the premium/discount with the current BTC spot price.

NYSE hours are shown in light green in the second chart.

Click MicroStragey - Unique #BTC Play for valuation model details and cautions.

New - BTC and BTC Miners / GBTC Trend Matrix

trends matrix: btc vs btc miners and gbtc

Daily updates for trends are on the trends page.

Crypto Fear and Greed Index

Latest Crypto Fear & Greed Index

High Value Tips

Bitcoin's Rise To Prominence On Full Display At This Year's Miami Conference, May 19, 2023

Bitcoin's Rise To Prominence On Full Display At This Year's Miami Conference

Frank Holmes, Is It Time To Get Defensive With Gold Mining Stocks?, May 17, 2023

Is It Time To Get Defensive With Gold Mining Stocks?


MicroStrategy - Unique #BTC Play

MSTR Share Count - Correction April 14, 2023

MSTR Valution Model

MicroStrategy filings are available here:

On April 5, 2023, MicroStrategy Incorporated (“MicroStrategy”) announced that, during the period between March 24, 2023 and April 4, 2023, MicroStrategy, together with its subsidiaries, acquired approximately 1,045 bitcoins for approximately $29.3 million in cash, at an average price of approximately $28,016 per bitcoin, inclusive of fees and expenses. As of April 4, 2023, MicroStrategy, together with its subsidiaries, held an aggregate of approximately 140,000 bitcoins, which were acquired at an aggregate purchase price of approximately $4.17 billion and an average purchase price of approximately $29,803 per bitcoin, inclusive of fees and expenses.

Remember that @saylor has talked about borrowing against BTC and rolling loans over (hodling the BTC for ever) and remembering that the likes of @FossGregfoss sees $2M bitcoin in today's dollars, which in my mind translates into a very simple model for valuing shares in terms of #BTC held -- the current loans against that BTC is a rounding error given the expected value of future BTC. Likewise the value of the MicroStrategy core business is also a rounding error (although business appears to be great and that part of the company is doing great work around the world).

Valuation Model = ( MSTR MCAP / BTC Holding Value - 1.0 ) * 100

If the MSTR MCAP is greater than the value of BTC Holdings (at spot BTC price), the model shows a positive percentage or equivalent MSTR trades a premium to the value of BTC MSTR holds.

Since the start of model tracking, more than 50% of the days MSTR traded at a slight or significant premium to the value of its underlying BTC holdings (subject to a full review of share count disclosures per SEC filings).

Large premiums or discounts in the Valuation Model do tend to correct and trend back to 0% (no premium or discount). A large premium or discount may be an indicator of institutional or hedge fund money betting with or against BTC by buying / shorting MSTR shares or using MSTR options. In my opinion MSTR is close to a pure spot BTC ETF.


Caution: this is not financial advise and this model is based on simplifying assumptions outlined above. You my question these assumptions and that is fine. Plus it is a first alpha release so I could have a few data errors (as the 6 April 2023 change in share counts demonstrated -- finding an accurate day by day count of MSTR shares requires a review SEC filings and capture counts versus dates). I will be refining the model on an as time available basis as well as adding daily updates on expected value for future #BTC price (i.e. price trending up, down or flat over the next quarter) as well as the current MSTR premium / discount, so please do bookmark this page and check back. All comments are welcome ( please use @goldminerpulse at Twitter to comment or provide suggestions).

GOAU: A New Way to Invest in Gold and Precious Metals

Watch this exciting interview at Kitco news for a first-hand introduction to GOAU, a gold and precious metals ETF launching soon. Learn more about this game-changing product here and view the SEC filing details here.

Unlike other gold ETFs, GOAU implements a "quant" strategy to guide its stock selection. Drawing from an array of factors that have proven successful, the new ETF seeks, for instance, to discriminate between companies with good and bad management and to identify companies with superior metrics. This active, discriminating approach not only is attractive for its own sake, but is buttressed by back testing results going back 10 years.

I fully expect the GOAU to become a major ETF player as the next gold bull run evolves.

Anyone looking for exposure to the gold sector need look no further than GOAU on the NYSE.

GoldBook at LeanPub

A free sample of the Gold Book is available at LeanPub.

The 2nd draft (available now) of the book covers 284 gold explorer/developers listed on the TSX/TSXv/CSE, selected at the end of June 2022.

The 3rd draft (planned release before end of Q4) includes 90+ Specialty Metal Companies (companies exploring for Lithium and related metals for battery / EV production). Most of companies are still at the Grass Roots stage. Anyone interested in "White Gold" may find this a useful watch list.

The Gold Book use case is that of a cheat sheet for anyone researching the TSX/TSXv/CSE mining stocks - you get summary fundamental metrics and one or two line summary description per miner plus links to company home page, sedar filings and TradingView chart page. The first beta release covers the gold explorer/developers with interesting fundamental metrics.

Metrics will be updated to a new date with each beta release. As a result, each beta release update give you a fresh set of metrics for a new release date plus coverage for additional miners. And remember with LeanPub, you get notification and access to the future beta releases as well as the final release.


Back to top