Gold / silver miners, metals streamer / royalty companies companies / BTC miners plus MSTR
The first plot shows the percentage change in BTC spot price versus the premium or discount for MSTR shares.
The premium / discount is computed as
(mstr_mcap/mstr_btc_value - 1 ) * 100
When the NYSE is closed, the last available MSTR price is used to compute the premium/discount with the current BTC spot price.
NYSE hours are shown in light green in the second chart.
Click MicroStragey - Unique #BTC Play for valuation model details and cautions.
Daily updates for trends are on the trends page.
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From an Schedule 14A filed 13 April 2023 shows:
On the record date, there were an aggregate of 10,974,626 shares of our Class A Stock and 1,964,025 shares of our Class B Stock outstanding and entitled to vote.
Our revised MSTR shares outstanding is set to 12.93965 million. (10,974,626 + 1,964,025)
Was our earlier share count estimate of 12.666 million right? Unclear. Going foward, we will check the MSTR filings regularily and copy the appropriate quotes to back up the share count estimate used.
MicroStrategy filings are available here:
On April 5, 2023, MicroStrategy Incorporated (“MicroStrategy”) announced that, during the period between March 24, 2023 and April 4, 2023, MicroStrategy, together with its subsidiaries, acquired approximately 1,045 bitcoins for approximately $29.3 million in cash, at an average price of approximately $28,016 per bitcoin, inclusive of fees and expenses. As of April 4, 2023, MicroStrategy, together with its subsidiaries, held an aggregate of approximately 140,000 bitcoins, which were acquired at an aggregate purchase price of approximately $4.17 billion and an average purchase price of approximately $29,803 per bitcoin, inclusive of fees and expenses.
Remember that @saylor has talked about borrowing against BTC and rolling loans over (hodling the BTC for ever) and remembering that the likes of @FossGregfoss sees $2M bitcoin in today's dollars, which in my mind translates into a very simple model for valuing shares in terms of #BTC held -- the current loans against that BTC is a rounding error given the expected value of future BTC. Likewise the value of the MicroStrategy core business is also a rounding error (although business appears to be great and that part of the company is doing great work around the world).
Valuation Model = ( MSTR MCAP / BTC Holding Value - 1.0 ) * 100
If the MSTR MCAP is greater than the value of BTC Holdings (at spot BTC price), the model shows a positive percentage or equivalent MSTR trades a premium to the value of BTC MSTR holds.
Since the start of model tracking, more than 50% of the days MSTR traded at a slight or significant premium to the value of its underlying BTC holdings (subject to a full review of share count disclosures per SEC filings).
Large premiums or discounts in the Valuation Model do tend to correct and trend back to 0% (no premium or discount). A large premium or discount may be an indicator of institutional or hedge fund money betting with or against BTC by buying / shorting MSTR shares or using MSTR options. In my opinion MSTR is close to a pure spot BTC ETF.
Caution: this is not financial advise and this model is based on simplifying assumptions outlined above. You my question these assumptions and that is fine. Plus it is a first alpha release so I could have a few data errors (as the 6 April 2023 change in share counts demonstrated -- finding an accurate day by day count of MSTR shares requires a review SEC filings and capture counts versus dates). I will be refining the model on an as time available basis as well as adding daily updates on expected value for future #BTC price (i.e. price trending up, down or flat over the next quarter) as well as the current MSTR premium / discount, so please do bookmark this page and check back. All comments are welcome ( please use @goldminerpulse at Twitter to comment or provide suggestions).
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