GoldMinerPulse: Market Sentiment Track Record

Chart for 25 January 2013 market close.


GoldMinerPulse Market Sentiment Metric Track Record

To ensure that I do not fall prey to Look Back market calls, I am going to publish a Friday closing MS chart and interpretation at what look like potential market trend changes. I have adapted the term Look Back market calls from the Keiser Report: Plunderers Pumping Pelf (E398) published 26 January 2013, a 30 minute video I highly recommend viewing -- Max delivers, as always, some very strong stuff.

25 January 2013 Call After Market Close: Up trend from 20 December 2012 Still Holds

The sharp sell off from Jan22/13 to Jan25/13 probably caused some market participants to question whether the gold market is still (or if it even was) in an uptrend. My call, after reviewing the Friday closing data is that the up trend from Dec20/12 is still valid. Clearly an interesting call so this is the first in a series of calls, I'm publishing on the weekend before the market opens for the next week. Lets see what the market tells us with the 1 February 2013 closing prices.

The MS chart, with annotations, and my commentary first published after the Friday close follows:

TSX Gold Equities Market Sentiment, 25 January 2013

Going into next week, the week ending 1 February 2013, the MS and POG are continuing to track each other quite well and are still relatively trending upward. That is the 25 January 2013 MS is still well above the 7 January 2013 MS lows and the 22 January 2013 MS high was well above the 2 January 2013 high which suggests the probable uptrend from 20 December 2012 lows is still intact. A move in the MS above the 22 January 2013 high would be confirmation of the up trend continuing while a break below the 7 January 2013 MS low would indicate that the MS uptrend call from 20 December 2012 has failed and that the market is trendless.

The Kitco Gold Survey of market participants completed 25 January 2013 has 32% of the participants bullish while 48% are bearish. Taking the Kitco survey results as a contrary indicator suggests next week is more likely to be bullish (i.e. rising POG and MS) than bearish. Last week the Kitco survey was bullish on gold prices. As always, the next week of trading will show the truth.

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