GoldMinerPulse: Market Sentiment Track Record

Chart for 1 March 2013 market close.


GoldMinerPulse Market Sentiment (MS) Metric Track Record

1 March 2013 Call After Market Close: MS Hitting Lows Not Seen Since July 2012

MS has continued falling. The MS down trend dating back from early October, 2012 is making new nows. MS is, in short, terrible and is roughly equal to the MS back in early July 2012.

Physical deliver of gold is however rather bullish for the metal:

The MS is clearly down for the week ending 1 March 2013, approaching the lows for which I have data -- MS calculations require extensive daily data on all TSX/TSXv gold producers making calculations for earlier dates prohibatively expensive which is why I am unable to share data for the first part of the year.

The Price of Gold (POG) drop, when reviewed in terms of physical delivery on just one gold exchange as discussed above, appears to be paper driven and not reflective of real market. The COMDEX paper gold casino market will no doubt continue with paper gold prices but at some point, probably sooner than later, the physical delivery market will set the price of gold. Even recently, the price of gold in Shanghai trades at a $10 to $30 premium over prices shown at Kitco.

The Kitco Gold Survey of market participants completed 1 March 2013 has 45% of the participants bullish while 28% are neutral/bearish. Taking the Kitco survey results as a contrary indicator suggests next week is more likely to be neutral (trendless trading) or bearish.

TSX Gold Equities Market Sentiment, 1 March 2013

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