GoldMinerPulse: Market Sentiment Track Record

Chart for 8 March 2013 market close.


GoldMinerPulse Market Sentiment (MS) Metric Track Record

8 March 2013 View After Market Close: MS At Multi-Year Low

The MS down trend dating back from early October, 2012 continues. MS has now fallen below the July 2012 lows which I estimate to be lower than any MS lows seen in 2010, 2011, and 2012.

Physical deliver of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange continue at a brisk pace:

The Kitco Gold Survey of market participants completed 8 March 2013 has 40% of the participants neutral while 36% are bearish and 24% bullish. Taking the Kitco survey results as a contrary indicator suggests next week is unlikely to be neutral (trendless trading). The MS trend suggests the current bearish decline is like to contnue while the strong SGE market for physical gold suggests further gold price drops are unlikely to be significant. That is, if there was strong buying at the 8 March 2013 closing price, a further move lower in gold prices should bring even more buying -- China certainly has enough US Treasuries to buy more gold, perhaps even all of the US gold reserve is such a deal were available at current prices.

The majority of experts featured on King World News suggest the POG and outlook for gold/silver equities is forming a bottom. However, many of these experts acknowledge further downside or sideways trading is still possible. There is blood in the gold and silver equities streets and investors like Rick Rule are loving the bargain prices. So, I also believe that now is a very good time to be adding to long term positions in quality gold and silver stocks.

The key metric to watch for next week is the price premium and daily delivery quantities for gold on the SGE -- I provide a daily snapshot of the SGE action on my daily Gold Mining and Silver Mining Stock News Headlines page.

TSX Gold Equities Market Sentiment, 8 March 2013

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