Chart for 12 April 2013 market close plus outlook for week ending 19 April 2013.
The 12 April 2013 MS made a new multi-year MS low. The down trend from early October is still very much in tact as the 21 December 2012 and 15 March 2013 up ticks both failed to end this down trend.
The 12 April 2013 sell-off in price of gold, off approximately $80 in New York and London, in primarily a paper market stands in sharp contrast to the Friday up $1 close at the Shanghai Gold Exchange -- Shanghai has delivered more gold year to date than the world's gold producers produced.
At the end of March, Dutch ABN halted physical gold delivery:
Based on a letter to clients over the weekend, it appears Dutch megabank ABN Amro is changing its precious metals custodian rules and "will no longer allow physical delivery." Have no fear, they reassuringly add, your account will be settled at the bid or offer price in the 'market' and "you need to do nothing" as "we have your investments in precious metals." Zero Hedge guest post (with image of the ABN-AMRO letter to clients).
An 10 April 2013 story Comex Gold Inventories Collapse By Largest Amount On Record - "Force Majeure" will be th ...
Over the last 90 days without any announcement, stocks of gold held at Comex warehouses plunged by the largest figure ever on record during a single quarter since eligible record keeping began in 2001 (roughly the beginning of the bull market).
The Kitco Gold Survey of market participants completed 12 April 2013 has 48% of the participants bullish and 48% bearish and 5% neutral. Taking the Kitco survey results as a contrary indicator suggests next week is more likely to be neutral, neither failing significantly nor rising significantly.
The key metric to watch for next week continues to be the price premium and daily delivery quantities for gold on the SGE -- see Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) Physical Gold Delivery for daily updates. At this point, in my opinion, the price of paper gold is quite meaningless with respect to the long term price of gold offered for physical delivery. The record drop in Comex warehouse gold stocks matches very nicely the record physical deliveries in Shanghai.
With an approximately $80 differential between the North American Friday closing gold price and the Shanghai Gold Exchange Friday close, my views on paper gold should be proved / disproved in the coming week by the SGE closing price, trading volumes and physical delivery counts. I expect that the availability of physical gold for delivery will become an issue around the world in the coming weeks if the paper gold price continues to be held down with virtually unlimited amounts of paper on offer. The volumes on the SGE are very likely to set a new one day record, however with the reduced number of trading days in April, bettering the March, 2013 delivery record is probably too large a reach.
On a side note, the quarter to date reports of Q1, 2013 gold production is running at approximately -2% on a Q1, 2013 versus Q4, 2012 basis. I maintain daily estimates on gold production on the GoldMinerPulse home page.
2013-04-05 -- MS Multi-Year Low Holds
2013-03-29 -- MS Up Turn From Multi-year Lows Continues to Build
2013-03-22 -- MS Up Slightly From Multi-year Lows
2013-03-15 -- MS Continues to Make Multi-year Lows
2013-03-08 -- MS At Multi-Year Low
2013-03-01 -- MS Hitting Lows Not Seen Since July 2012
2013-02-22 -- Up trend from 20 December 2012 Failed
2013-02-15 -- Up trend from 20 December 2012 Confirmed
2013-02-08 -- Up trend from 20 December 2012 Still Holds
2013-02-01 -- Up trend from 20 December 2012 Still Holds, But Is Weakening
2013-01-25 -- Up trend from 20 December 2012 Still Holds