GoldMinerPulse: Market Sentiment Track Record

Chart for 12 April 2013 market close plus outlook for week ending 19 April 2013.


GoldMinerPulse Market Sentiment (MS) Metric Track Record

12 April 2013 View After Market Close: MS Makes New Multi-Year Low

Outlook for Week Ending 19 April 2013

The key metric to watch for next week continues to be the price premium and daily delivery quantities for gold on the SGE -- see Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) Physical Gold Delivery for daily updates. At this point, in my opinion, the price of paper gold is quite meaningless with respect to the long term price of gold offered for physical delivery. The record drop in Comex warehouse gold stocks matches very nicely the record physical deliveries in Shanghai.

With an approximately $80 differential between the North American Friday closing gold price and the Shanghai Gold Exchange Friday close, my views on paper gold should be proved / disproved in the coming week by the SGE closing price, trading volumes and physical delivery counts. I expect that the availability of physical gold for delivery will become an issue around the world in the coming weeks if the paper gold price continues to be held down with virtually unlimited amounts of paper on offer. The volumes on the SGE are very likely to set a new one day record, however with the reduced number of trading days in April, bettering the March, 2013 delivery record is probably too large a reach.

On a side note, the quarter to date reports of Q1, 2013 gold production is running at approximately -2% on a Q1, 2013 versus Q4, 2012 basis. I maintain daily estimates on gold production on the GoldMinerPulse home page.

GoldMinerPulse Calls From Past Friday Market Closings

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